Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

Inducing spin-dependent tunneling to probe magnetic correlations in optical lattices

We suggest a simple experimental method for probing antiferromagnetic spin correlations of two-component Fermi gases in optical lattices. The method relies on a spin selective Raman transition to excite atoms of one spin species to their first excited vibrational mode where the tunneling is large. The resulting difference in the tunneling dynamics of the two spin species can then be exploited, to reveal the spin correlations by measuring the number of doubly occupied lattice sites at a later time. We perform quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the spin system and solve the optical lattice dynamics numerically to show how the timed probe can be used to identify antiferromagnetic spin correlations in optical lattices.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Rectangular Full Packed Format for Cholesky's Algorithm: Factorization, Solution and Inversion

We describe a new data format for storing triangular, symmetric, and Hermitian matrices called RFPF (Rectangular Full Packed Format). The standard two dimensional arrays of Fortran and C (also known as full format) that are used to represent triangular and symmetric matrices waste nearly half of the storage space but provide high performance via the use of Level 3 BLAS. Standard packed format arrays fully utilize storage (array space) but provide low performance as there is no Level 3 packed BLAS. We combine the good features of packed and full storage using RFPF to obtain high performance via using Level 3 BLAS as RFPF is a standard full format representation. Also, RFPF requires exactly the same minimal storage as packed format. Each LAPACK full and/or packed triangular, symmetric, and Hermitian routine becomes a single new RFPF routine based on eight possible data layouts of RFPF. This new RFPF routine usually consists of two calls to the corresponding LAPACK full format routine and two calls to Level 3 BLAS routines. This means {\it no} new software is required. As examples, we present LAPACK routines for Cholesky factorization, Cholesky solution and Cholesky inverse computation in RFPF to illustrate this new work and to describe its performance on several commonly used computer platforms. Performance of LAPACK full routines using RFPF versus LAPACK full routines using standard format for both serial and SMP parallel processing is about the same while using half the storage. Performance gains are roughly one to a factor of 43 for serial and one to a factor of 97 for SMP parallel times faster using vendor LAPACK full routines with RFPF than with using vendor and/or reference packed routines

The mass content of the Sculptor dwarf spheroidal galaxy

We present a new determination of the mass content of the Sculptor dwarf spheroidal galaxy, based on a novel approach which takes into account the two distinct stellar populations present in this galaxy. This method helps to partially break the well-known mass-anisotropy degeneracy present in the modelling of pressure-supported stellar systems.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. To appear in the proceedings of IAU Symposium 254 "The Galaxy disk in a cosmological context", Copenhagen, June 200

Pinning of stripes by local structural distortions in cuprate high-Tc superconductors

We study the spin-density wave (stripe) instability in lattices with mixed low-temperature orthorhombic (LTO) and low-temperature tetragonal (LTT) crystal symmetry. Within an explicit mean-field model it is shown how local LTT regions act as pinning centers for static stripe formation. We calculate the modulations in the local density of states near these local stripe regions and find that mainly the coherence peaks and the van Hove singularity (VHS) are spatially modulated. Lastly, we use the real-space approach to simulate recent tunneling data in the overdoped regime where the VHS has been detected by utilizing local normal state regions.Comment: Conference proceedings for Stripes1

Towards Precision Photometry with Extremely Large Telescopes: the Double Subgiant Branch of NGC 1851

The Extremely Large Telescopes currently under construction have a collecting area that is an order of magnitude larger than the present largest optical telescopes. For seeing-limited observations the performance will scale as the collecting area but, with the successful use of adaptive optics, for many applications it will scale as $D^4$ (where $D$ is the diameter of the primary mirror). Central to the success of the ELTs, therefore, is the successful use of multi-conjugate adaptive optics (MCAO) that applies a high degree correction over a field of view larger than the few arcseconds that limits classical adaptive optics systems. In this letter, we report on the analysis of crowded field images taken on the central region of the Galactic globular cluster NGC 1851 in $K_s$ band using GeMS at the Gemini South telescope, the only science-grade MCAO system in operation. We use this cluster as a benchmark to verify the ability to achieve precise near-infrared photometry by presenting the deepest $K_s$ photometry in crowded fields ever obtained from the ground. We construct a colour-magnitude diagram in combination with the F606W band from HST/ACS. As well as detecting the "knee" in the lower main sequence at $K_s\simeq20.5$, we also detect the double subgiant branch of NGC 1851, that demonstrates the high photometric accuracy of GeMS in crowded fields.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL (3 Sep 2015). A version of the paper with high-res images is available at http://www.astro.uvic.ca/~alan/ms_arxiv_hr.pd

Renormalization Group Summation and the Free Energy of Hot QCD

Using an approach developed in the context of zero-temperature QCD to systematically sum higher order effects whose form is fixed by the renormalization group equation, we sum to all orders the leading log (LL) and next-to-leading log (NLL) contributions to the thermodynamic free energy in hot QCD. While the result varies considerably less with changes in the renormalization scale than does the purely perturbative result, a novel ambiguity arises which reflects the strong scheme dependence of thermal perturbation theory.Comment: 7 pages REVTEX4, 2 figures; v2: typos correcte

Mass Expansions of Screened Perturbation Theory

The thermodynamics of massless phi^4-theory is studied within screened perturbation theory (SPT). In this method the perturbative expansion is reorganized by adding and subtracting a mass term in the Lagrangian. We analytically calculate the pressure and entropy to three-loop order and the screening mass to two-loop order, expanding in powers of m/T. The truncated m/T-expansion results are compared with numerical SPT results for the pressure, entropy and screening mass which are accurate to all orders in m/T. It is shown that the m/T-expansion converges quickly and provides an accurate description of the thermodynamic functions for large values of the coupling constant.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figure