Unemployment and Inflation Regimes

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. We find that such models seem to provide a better description of the data than single regime VARs and need fewer lags to account for serial correlation. To interpret the regimes the empirical results are compared with the predictions from a version of Rogoff's (1985) model of monetary policy. We find that both the theoretical and the empirical results suggest that an increase in central bank "conservativeness" can be associated with either a higher or a lower variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than in the high inflation regime, while the Swedish case suggests that unemployment variability is higher in the low inflation regime. According to the theoretical model this may be explained by a higher labor supply elasticity in the U.S. than in Sweden.

Monetary-Policy Communication: The Experience of the Swedish Riksbank

Over the past ten to fifteen years, central banks have begun to communicate more openly. The article describes the Swedish central bank’s communication experiences in two central areas: the role of real stability in monetary policy, and the interest-rate assumption used as a basis for the economic forecasts. One conclusion is that a higher degree of openness, although desirable, often makes the central bank’s message more complex. The communication may therefore be perceived as less clear during a transitory period. Another conclusion is that how open a central bank chooses to be is not an isolated decision that leaves the bank’s practices unaffected in other respects. The degree of openness is likely to have repercussions on the central bank’s internal analyses and decision-making processes.central-bank communication, monetary policy, transparency

New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Reexamination of the Stylized Facts

Using an empirical New-Keynesian model with optimal discretionary monetary policy, we calibrate key parameters - the central bank's preference parameters; the degree of forward-looking behavior in the determination of inflation and output; and the variances of inflation and output shocks - to match some broad characteristics of U.S. data. Our preferred parameterizations all imply a small concern for output stability but a large preference for interest rate smoothing, and a small degree of forward-looking behavior in price-setting but a large degree of forward-looking in the determination of output. We provide some intuition for these results and discuss their consequences for practical monetary policy analysis.Interest rate smoothing; central bank objectives; forward-looking behavior

Unemployment and Inflation Regimes

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated with high or low unemployment volatility. We find that MS-VAR models seem to provide a better description of the data than single regime VARs and need fewer lags to account for serial correlation. To interpret the regimes the empirical results are compared with the predictions from a version of Rogoff's (1985) model of monetary policy. We find that both the theoretical and empirical results suggest that an increase in central bank "conservativeness" can be associated with either a higher or a lower variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than in hte high inflation regime, while the Swedish and the U.K. cases suggest that unemployment variability is higher in the low inflation regime.Cointegration; Monetary policy; Phillips curve; Regime switching; Unemployment volatility