Ground Risk Assessment Service Provider (GRASP) Development Effort as a Supplemental Data Service Provider (SDSP) for Urban Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations

NASAs Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project aims to enable the integration of new aviation paradigms such as Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) while providing the necessary infrastructure for future concepts such as On-Demand Mobility (ODM) and Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). In order to do so, the UTM project has developed an architecture to allow communication among UAS operators, UAS Service Suppliers (USS), Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP), and the public. As part of this framework, the Supplemental Data Service Providers (SDSP) are envisioned as model and/or data based services that disseminate essential or enhanced information to ensure safe operations within low-altitude airspace. These services include terrain and obstacle data, specialized weather data, surveillance, constraint information, risk monitoring, etc. This paper highlights the development efforts of a non-participant casualty risk assessment SDSP called Ground Risk Assessment Service Provider (GRASP) which assists operators with preflight planning. GRASP is based on the previously introduced UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF) and allows UAS operators to simulate and visualize potential non-participant casualty risks associated with their proposed flight. The risk assessment capability also allows operators to revise their flight plans if the casualty risks are determined to be above acceptable thresholds. GRASP is configured to account for future improvements including servicing airborne aircraft as part of NASAs System-Wide Safety (SWS) project

Foraging movements of emperor penguins at Pointe Géologie, Antarctica.

International audienceThe foraging distributions of 20 breeding emperor penguins were investigated at Pointe Ge´ologie, Terre Ade´lie, Antarctica by using satellite telemetry in 2005 and 2006 during early and late winter, as well as during late spring and summer, corresponding to incubation, early chick-brooding, late chick-rearing and the adult pre-moult period, respectively. Dive depth records of three post-egg-laying females, two post-incubating males and four late chick-rearing adults were examined, as well as the horizontal space use by these birds. Foraging ranges of chick-provisioning penguins extended over the Antarctic shelf and were constricted by winter pack-ice. During spring ice break-up, the foraging ranges rarely exceeded the shelf slope, although seawater access was apparently almost unlimited. Winter females appeared constrained in their access to open water but used fissures in the sea ice and expanded their prey search effort by expanding the horizontal search component underwater. Birds in spring however, showed higher area-restricted-search than did birds in winter. Despite different seasonal foraging strategies, chick-rearing penguins exploited similar areas as indicated by both a high ‘Area-Restricted-Search Index' and high ‘Catch Per Unit Effort'. During pre-moult trips, emperor penguins ranged much farther offshore than breeding birds, which argues for particularly profitable oceanic feeding areas which can be exploited when the time constraints imposed by having to return to a central place to provision the chick no longer apply

Effects of Weather Conditions on the Winter Activity of Mearns Cottontail

An important phase of cottontail management is estimation of the populations. The accuracy of methods used to determine the numbers may be increased with greater knowledge of the effects of weather conditions on cottontail activity. The effects of temperature on cottontail activity have been observed by several investigators. In Michigan, Allen (1939) found that females tended to use burrows at temperatures of 10° F. Linduska (1947) reported the use of dens by cottontails in southern Michigan to be three times as great at temperatures of -8° to +12° F. as when the temperature ranged from 12° to 32° F., and that females were more inclined to use dens than were males. In Wisconsin, Hanson (1944) found no correlation between temperature and the number of cottontails trapped per night, the correlation with barometric pressure not significant, and cloudiness, precipitation and wind direction showing no relationship to the number of rabbits trapped per night. Crunden (1954) reported more rabbits trapped during periods of rising or falling barometric pressure than during periods of constant barometric pressure

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions

New constrains on the thickness of the Semail Ophiolite in the Northern Emirates

Near-critical angle and refraction studies were performed at IFP as piggyback studies during a wider programme of crustal imagery operated by WesternGeco on behalf of the Ministry of Energy of the United Arab Emirates. The main objective is to illuminate the base of the Semail Ophiolite along part of a regional transect (D1) crossing the Northern Emirates from the Gulf of Oman in the east up to the Arabian Gulf in the west. Results confirm that the sole thrust of the ophiolite has been folded during the Miocene stacking of the underlying Arabian Platform. The thickness of the ophiolite grades from zero in the core of the Masafi tectonic window, up to a maximum of 1.7 km below the axial part of a successor basin which has been preserved on top of the serpentinite west of the current exposure of the main ultramafic bodies. Apatite grains extracted from plagiogranites of the Semail ophiolite also provide evidences for an early unroofing of the gabbros and plagiogranites during the Late Cretaceous, with cooling ages of 72-76 Ma at the top of the ophiolite in the east (not far from the Fujairah coast line), which are coeval and also consistent with the occurrence of Late Cretaceous paleo-soils, rudists and paleo-reef deposits on top of serpentinized ultramafics in the west. Younger cooling ages of 20 Ma have been also found at the base of the ophiolite near Masafi, in the core of the nappe anticline, thus providing a Neogene age for the refolding of the allochthon and stacking of underlying parautochthonous platform carbonate units. These results, together with the occurrence of a thick sedimentary pile illuminated below the metamorphic sole along the north-trending, strike-profile D2 running parallel to the axis of the Masafi window, should stimulate a renewal of the exploration in the central part of the Emirate foothills, where the ophiolite thickness is currently limited, and was already drastically reduced by the end of its Late Cretaceous obduction. © 2010 Saudi Society for Geosciences

Random Networks with Tunable Degree Distribution and Clustering

We present an algorithm for generating random networks with arbitrary degree distribution and Clustering (frequency of triadic closure). We use this algorithm to generate networks with exponential, power law, and poisson degree distributions with variable levels of clustering. Such networks may be used as models of social networks and as a testable null hypothesis about network structure. Finally, we explore the effects of clustering on the point of the phase transition where a giant component forms in a random network, and on the size of the giant component. Some analysis of these effects is presented.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figures corrected typos, added two references, reorganized reference

Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model.

Asthma exacerbations exhibit a consistent annual pattern, closely mirroring the school calendar. Although respiratory viruses--the "common cold" viruses--are implicated as a principal cause, there is little evidence to link viral prevalence to seasonal differences in risk. We jointly fit a common cold transmission model and a model of biological and environmental exacerbation triggers to estimate effects on hospitalization risk. Asthma hospitalization rate, influenza prevalence, and air quality measures are available, but common cold circulation is not; therefore, we generate estimates of viral prevalence using a transmission model. Our deterministic multivirus transmission model includes transmission rates that vary when school is closed. We jointly fit the two models to 7 y of daily asthma hospitalizations in adults and children (66,000 events) in eight metropolitan areas. For children, we find that daily viral prevalence is the strongest predictor of asthma hospitalizations, with transmission reduced by 45% (95% credible interval =41-49%) during school closures. We detect a transient period of nonspecific immunity between infections lasting 19 (17-21) d. For adults, hospitalizations are more variable, with influenza driving wintertime peaks. Neither particulate matter nor ozone was an important predictor, perhaps because of the large geographic area of the populations. The school calendar clearly and predictably drives seasonal variation in common cold prevalence, which results in the "back-to-school" asthma exacerbation pattern seen in children and indirectly contributes to exacerbation risk in adults. This study provides a framework for anticipating the seasonal dynamics of common colds and the associated risks for asthmatics

Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir

Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000-650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent trans-mission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000deaths would have been averted in the 2017-2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives.StatisticsMolecular BiosciencesIntegrative Biolog

Modeling Control Strategies of Respiratory Pathogens

Contact network epidemiology can provide quantitative input even before pathogen is fully characterized