Foraging movements of emperor penguins at Pointe Géologie, Antarctica.

International audienceThe foraging distributions of 20 breeding emperor penguins were investigated at Pointe Ge´ologie, Terre Ade´lie, Antarctica by using satellite telemetry in 2005 and 2006 during early and late winter, as well as during late spring and summer, corresponding to incubation, early chick-brooding, late chick-rearing and the adult pre-moult period, respectively. Dive depth records of three post-egg-laying females, two post-incubating males and four late chick-rearing adults were examined, as well as the horizontal space use by these birds. Foraging ranges of chick-provisioning penguins extended over the Antarctic shelf and were constricted by winter pack-ice. During spring ice break-up, the foraging ranges rarely exceeded the shelf slope, although seawater access was apparently almost unlimited. Winter females appeared constrained in their access to open water but used fissures in the sea ice and expanded their prey search effort by expanding the horizontal search component underwater. Birds in spring however, showed higher area-restricted-search than did birds in winter. Despite different seasonal foraging strategies, chick-rearing penguins exploited similar areas as indicated by both a high ‘Area-Restricted-Search Index' and high ‘Catch Per Unit Effort'. During pre-moult trips, emperor penguins ranged much farther offshore than breeding birds, which argues for particularly profitable oceanic feeding areas which can be exploited when the time constraints imposed by having to return to a central place to provision the chick no longer apply

Random Networks with Tunable Degree Distribution and Clustering

We present an algorithm for generating random networks with arbitrary degree distribution and Clustering (frequency of triadic closure). We use this algorithm to generate networks with exponential, power law, and poisson degree distributions with variable levels of clustering. Such networks may be used as models of social networks and as a testable null hypothesis about network structure. Finally, we explore the effects of clustering on the point of the phase transition where a giant component forms in a random network, and on the size of the giant component. Some analysis of these effects is presented.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figures corrected typos, added two references, reorganized reference

On the use of equity REIT returns for deriving a discout rate for unsecuritized commercial real estate

Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1993.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 84-86).by David A. Deutsch.M.C.P

Identification of Crew-Systems Interactions and Decision Related Trends

NASA Vehicle System Safety Technology (VSST) project management uses systems analysis to identify key issues and maintain a portfolio of research leading to potential solutions to its three identified technical challenges. Statistical data and published safety priority lists from academic, industry and other government agencies were reviewed and analyzed by NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) systems analysis personnel to identify issues and future research needs related to one of VSST's technical challenges, Crew Decision Making (CDM). The data examined in the study were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Aviation Accident and Incident Data System, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Accident/Incident Data System and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). In addition, this report contains the results of a review of safety priority lists, information databases and other documented references pertaining to aviation crew systems issues and future research needs. The specific sources examined were: Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFIs), Flight Deck Automation Issues (FDAI) and NTSB Most Wanted List and Open Recommendations. Various automation issues taxonomies and priority lists pertaining to human factors, automation and flight design were combined to create a list of automation issues related to CDM

Evolution of Robustness to Noise and Mutation in Gene Expression Dynamics

Phenotype of biological systems needs to be robust against mutation in order to sustain themselves between generations. On the other hand, phenotype of an individual also needs to be robust against fluctuations of both internal and external origins that are encountered during growth and development. Is there a relationship between these two types of robustness, one during a single generation and the other during evolution? Could stochasticity in gene expression have any relevance to the evolution of these robustness? Robustness can be defined by the sharpness of the distribution of phenotype; the variance of phenotype distribution due to genetic variation gives a measure of `genetic robustness' while that of isogenic individuals gives a measure of `developmental robustness'. Through simulations of a simple stochastic gene expression network that undergoes mutation and selection, we show that in order for the network to acquire both types of robustness, the phenotypic variance induced by mutations must be smaller than that observed in an isogenic population. As the latter originates from noise in gene expression, this signifies that the genetic robustness evolves only when the noise strength in gene expression is larger than some threshold. In such a case, the two variances decrease throughout the evolutionary time course, indicating increase in robustness. The results reveal how noise that cells encounter during growth and development shapes networks' robustness to stochasticity in gene expression, which in turn shapes networks' robustness to mutation. The condition for evolution of robustness as well as relationship between genetic and developmental robustness is derived through the variance of phenotypic fluctuations, which are measurable experimentally.Comment: 25 page

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper

Funnel landscape and mutational robustness as a result of evolution under thermal noise

In biological systems, expression dynamics to shape a fitted phenotype for function has evolved through mutations to genes, as observed in the evolution of funnel landscape in protein. We study this evolutionary process with a statistical-mechanical model of interacting spins, where the fitted phenotype is represented by a configuration of a given set of "target spins" and interaction matrix J among spins is genotype evolving over generations. The expression dynamics is given by stochastic process with temperature T_S to decrease energy for a given set of J. The evolution of J is also stochastic with temperature T_J, following mutation in J and selection based on a fitness given by configurations of the target spins. Below a certain temperature T_S^{c2}, the highly adapted J evolves, whereasanother phase transition characterised by frustration occurs at T_S^{c1}<T_S^{c2}. At temperature lower than T_S^{c1}, the Hamiltonian exhibits a spin-glass like phase, where the dynamics requires long time steps to produce the fitted phenotype, and the fitness often decreases drastically by single mutation. In contrast, in the intermediate temperature phase between T_S^{c1} and T_S^{c2}, the evolved genotypes, that have no frustration around the target spins (we call "local Mattis state"), give a funnel-like rapid expression dynamics and are robust to mutation. These results imply that evolution under thermal noise beyond a certain level leads to funnel dynamics and mutational robustness. We will explain its mechanism with the statistical-mechanical method.Comment: 4pages, 4figure