Scenario Analyses Concerning Energy Efficiency and Climate Protection in Regional and National Residential Building Stocks. Examples from Nine European Countries. - EPISCOPE Synthesis Report No. 3

This report documents methodological aspects and selected results of the scenario analyses to assess refurbishment as well as energy saving processes and project future energy consumption.. It covers scenario calculations conducted for regional residential building stocks in Salzburg/Austria, the Comunidat Valenciana/Spain, the Piedmont Region/Italy, the national non-profit housing stock in the Netherlands as well as the national residential building stocks in Germany, England, Greece, Norway, and Slovenia. Thereby, the objective of the scenario analysis is not a prediction of future energy demand in the respective building stock. Rather, the objective is to show the potential future impact of predefined assumptions. This may help respective key actors and policy makers to decide on strategies and policies for transforming building stocks towards carbon dioxide neutrality

Scenarios of energy demand and uptake of renovation activities in the EU commercial building sector

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Database tools for policy development - presenting building stock renovation programme potentials through Energy Saving Cost Curves: Presentation helt at the International Energy Policy & Program Evaluation Conference, IEPPEC 2016, Amsterdam

The use of buildings databases has an enormous potential to inform decision-making in order to decarbonize the building stock by 2050. This paper showcases the potential of databases and, by using the example of Germany, it presents a methodology for appraising the economic and energy reduction outcomes of building renovation policies. A dynamic bottom-up simulation model, the Invert/EE-Lab, evaluates the effects of three scenarios of economic and regulatory incentives for three different renovation packages oriented towards the standards defined by the German building code (EnEV) as well as the support programmes of the Federal Development Bank (KfW). Results are presented visually through Energy Saving Cost Curves which communicate the energy savings and avoided energy costs following renovation programmes of the German building stock. The results show that under a range of realistic scenarios to 2030, the total economic energy saving potentials range from 60 to 170 TWh/y, and correspond to financial savings that range from 1.2 to 6.2 bn€/y. Energy Saving Cost Curves provide a means to compare the impact of different policy options from the perspective of the investor for different building categories, and can thereby feed directly into the design of renovation strategies -whether at national, regional or city level- taking into consideration economic parameters ranging from subsidies and energy prices, to transaction costs, learning curves and discount rates

Energy saving cost curves as a tool for policy development - case study of the German building stock

The building sector within the EU accounts for about 40% of final energy use and one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Buildings therefore should play an important role in meeting the EU climate targets. Using the example of Germany, the largest economy of the EU, this paper sets out the methodology for appraising the contribution that comprehensive building renovations, comprising both fabric insulation and heating system upgrades, can make towards decreasing energy use. A dynamic bottom-up simulation model, the Invert/EE-Lab model, evaluates the effects of three scenarios of economic and regulatory incentives for three different renovation packages oriented towards the standards defined by the German building code (EnEv) as well as the support programmes of the KfW development bank. Results are presented visually through Energy Saving Cost Curves which communicate the monetary costs (or savings) and the energy savings for 16 building categories that represent the entirety of the German building stock. The Energy Saving Cost Curves developed in this paper represent the investors’ perspective to 2030. Under the Business As Usual scenario, the total cost effective energy savings potential amounts to 60 TWh/a, avoids 1.1 bn€/a in energy costs, and comprises most of the non-residential building categories and the oldest residential buildings built before 1948. Increasing the level of subsidy in the High Subsidy scenario results in an almost doubling of cost-effective savings to 118 TWh/a while increasing energy cost savings to 1.9 bn€/a. Energy Saving Cost Curves provide a means to compare the impact of different policy options from the perspective of the investor for different building categories, and can thereby feed directly into the design of renovation strategies -whether at national, regional or city level- under a wide variety of conditions and taking into consideration economic parameters ranging from subsidies and energy prices, to transaction costs, learning curves and discount rates

Self-consumption rises due to energy crises? An evaluation of prosumers' consumption behavior in 2022

Prosumers with photovoltaic systems can reduce their electricity expenses by increasing their consumption of self-generated electricity. This makes them more resilient to price shocks, like the 2022 European energy crisis. We evaluate how prosumers adapt their consumption behavior in response to such political uncertainty and increasing electricity prices. The collected survey and smart meter data allow us to evaluate the perceived self-reported and measured impact on self-consumption. Saving intentions due to the energy crisis are more clearly displayed by the survey than by the measured self-consumption. While solar radiation predominantly explains self-consumption changes, Google searches on electricity-related topics have limited explanatory power. However, considering time lags and the interaction with solar radiation leads to more nuanced insights on the effect of Google searches. Depending on the level of solar radiation, the effect of Google searches ranges from decreasing the daily self-consumption by 26.45 Wh to increasing it by 69.45 Wh

Why do people turn down the heat? Applying behavioural theories to assess reductions in space heating and energy consumption in Europe

Reducing heating-related energy consumption is vital in Europe, where it accounts for a significant portion of domestic energy usage. We studied the factors that influence reduced heating-related consumption by using three theoretical frameworks: the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the Value Belief Norm theory, and the Prototype Willingness Model. Our sample consisted of 3098 people from 29 European countries. We conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to verify whether our observed variables measure our latent factors, followed by a structural equation model that incorporated these three behavioural models. We find that perceived behavioural control, subjective norms and attitudes (as part of the Theory of Planned Behaviour) are significant predictors of intent to reduce consumption. However, perceived behavioural control was not statistically significantly associated with behaviour. Environmental concern had a more significant influence on attitudes towards energy reduction than bill consciousness. Attitude was additionally significantly associated with fear of losing comfort and energy knowledge. Moreover, personal moral norms (as part of Value Belief Norm Theory) and willingness (as part of the Prototype Willingness Model) contributed to explaining the intent to reduce consumption, while willingness was also associated with behaviour.Energie and Industri

Opportunities for Promoting Healthy Homes and Long-Lasting Energy-Efficient Behaviour among Families with Children in Portugal

Energy poverty vulnerability constitutes a significant concern in Portugal, with 17.5% of the population being unable to keep their home adequately warm. Furthermore, there is evidence that a substantial number of children live in unhealthy homes. This study aims to comprehensively characterise a sample of 101 Portuguese families with children and their homes in order to identify opportunities for actions for promoting long-lasting energy efficiency and environment health-promoting behavioural changes. To accomplish this aim, two tools—a building survey checklist and a questionnaire to participants—were developed and implemented to collect harmonised data on building-specific characteristics and on participants' socioeconomic status and behaviour. The home visits for recruitment and data collection were conducted from July 2021 to April 2022. The results suggest that, for the population under study, the main opportunities for improvement include: (i) replacing low energy-efficient technologies, with high emission rates, namely those used for heating purposes, with cleaner and more efficient alternatives; (ii) providing citizens with detailed information about their home's energy use and indoor air quality and (iii) educating the population on the best-practices for reducing indoor air stuffiness, mitigating the risk of hazardous exposures, improving thermal comfort and saving energy

Opportunities for Promoting Healthy Homes and Long-Lasting Energy-Efficient Behaviour among Families with Children in Portugal

Energy poverty vulnerability constitutes a significant concern in Portugal, with 17.5% of the population being unable to keep their home adequately warm. Furthermore, there is evidence that a substantial number of children live in unhealthy homes. This study aims to comprehensively characterise a sample of 101 Portuguese families with children and their homes in order to identify opportunities for actions for promoting long-lasting energy efficiency and environment health-promoting behavioural changes. To accomplish this aim, two tools—a building survey checklist and a questionnaire to participants—were developed and implemented to collect harmonised data on building-specific characteristics and on participants’ socioeconomic status and behaviour. The home visits for recruitment and data collection were conducted from July 2021 to April 2022. The results suggest that, for the population under study, the main opportunities for improvement include: (i) replacing low energy-efficient technologies, with high emission rates, namely those used for heating purposes, with cleaner and more efficient alternatives; (ii) providing citizens with detailed information about their home’s energy use and indoor air quality and (iii) educating the population on the best-practices for reducing indoor air stuffiness, mitigating the risk of hazardous exposures, improving thermal comfort and saving energy