Economic valuation of the impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

The objective of this study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production computing monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The quantitative results are based simulations using the GTAP general equilibrium models system that includes all relevant economic activities. The estimated changes in the exports and imports of agricultural goods, value of GDP and crop prices under the climate and socio-economic scenarios show significant regional differences between northern and southern European countries. The patterns are positive effects except on Mediterranean countries. The most important increases seem to concern the continental region, where the productivity increases enlarge GDP more intensively due to the importance of agricultural sector in the region. The monetary estimates also show that in all cases uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than the ones derived from climate scenarios.agriculture, climate change, computable general equilibrium models, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

RESUMEN This study provides monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agriculture. Future scenarios are derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate moedls and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model across simulations based on crop productivity changes that consider no restrictions in the volume of water available for irrigation in current irrigated areas or in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Thus the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Regional differences between northern and southern European countries are found and the monetary estimates show that uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than uncertainty derived from climate scenarios. ABSTRACT Este estudio proporciona estimaciones económicas de los efectos del cambio climático en la agricultura Europeal. Los escenarios futuros incorporan proyecciones de cambios socio-económicos y variables climáticas derivadas de modelos de clima global y regional. La valoración económica utiliza el modelo de equilibrio general (GTAP), donde las simulaciones se basan en cambios en la productividad de los cultivos sin considerar restricciones en el volumen de agua de riego en las zonas actuales de regadío ni de fertilizantes. Así, los resultados se pueden considerar optimistas desde el punto de vista productivo, pero pesimistas desde el punto de vista ambiental. Se observan diferencias significativas entre el norte y el sur de Europa y las estimaciones económicas muestran que la incertidumbre asociada a los escenarios socio-económicos es mayor que la asociada a los escenarios climáticos.agriculture, climate change, general equilibrium models, agricultura, cambio climático, modelos de equilibrio general, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Adapting agriculture to climate change

We evaluate the potential impacts and measure the potential limits of adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Pressures on land and water resources are expected to intensify existing risks in low latitude areas – e.g., South-East Asia deltas – and in regions with current water scarcity – e.g. Mediterranean, and create new opportunities in some northern temperate areas – e.g., Northern Russia, Northern Europe. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The discussion aims to assist stakeholders facing the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.Adaptation, climatic change, global production, mitigation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C51, C53, Q17, Q18,

Analysing Physical and Socio-economic Risk in the Adaption of Agriculture to Climate Change (ARI)

Adapting agriculture to climate change requires an understanding of both natural impacts and the underlying vulnerability of socio-economic systems. Food production systems, essential to socio-economic activity throughout the world, are beginning to face the challenge of anthropogenic climate change in addition to the challenge of population growth and changing consumer patterns. Uncertainty surrounding climate change impacts, however, poses a serious challenge to agricultural adaptation. Additionally, since the effects of climate change will vary globally, changes in crop productivity will also differ from region to region. Thus, regional adaptive capacity must be considered locally in order to capture underlying socio-economic vulnerability. Our combined analysis of changes in crop productivity and adaptive capacity specifically highlights the seriousness of climate-change-related risks in Africa and South-East Asia. Conversely it is noted that some regions stand to make gains from the anticipated changes in climate

Economic valuation of the impacts of climate change in Agriculture in Europe

The objective of this study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production computing monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The quantitative results are based simulations using the GTAP general equilibrium models system that includes all relevant economic activities. The estimated changes in the exports and imports of agricultural goods, value of GDP and crop prices under the climate and socio-economic scenarios show significant regional differences between northern and southern European countries. The patterns are positive effects except on Mediterranean countries. The most important increases seem to concern the continental region, where the productivity increases enlarge GDP more intensively due to the importance of agricultural sector in the region. The monetary estimates also show that in all cases uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than the ones derived from climate scenarios

Las calculadoras gráficas y el conocimiento científico de las matemáticas

Uno de los desafíos esenciales de la enseñanza de las matemáticas consiste en la utilización de métodos y medios de enseñanza que propicien en los alumnos la formación de un conocimiento científico. Se asume como referente teórico los métodos del conocimiento científico de las ciencias pedagógicas, teniendo en cuenta que cuando el conocimiento que se quiere formar es científico, tiene que crear una actividad cognoscitiva nueva, lo que hace que la enseñanza y los medios de enseñanza que utilicemos sean diferentes, particularmente por el lenguaje que tiene la matemática, que ha de ser el lenguaje científico donde, además del habitual, se da el simbólico. El objetivo del trabajo es fundamentar la utilización de las calculadoras gráficas como un medio muy importante y actual para lograr formar en los alumnos un conocimiento científico de las matemáticas, y precisar que no basta con la enseñanza expositiva para que el estudiante se forme un conocimiento científico, pues la actitud científica hay que formarla, educarla en los estudiantes. Se caracterizan los niveles del conocimiento científico de las matemáticas, el empírico y el teórico y se precisa que ambos niveles se distinguen por los métodos de enseñanza y aprendizaje, donde el empírico emplea métodos que permiten describir los hechos, y es por eso que para este nivel se recomienda la visualización con la utilización de las calculadoras gráficas, y el nivel teórico utiliza métodos para distinguir las esencias, por ejemplo el hipotético-deductivo, el lógico histórico, la ascensión de lo abstracto a lo concreto pensado, etc. El trabajo aporta como resultado los principios para la utilización de las calculadoras gráficas en las clases de matemáticas en aras de formar un conocimiento científico en la enseñanza de esta materia

Impacts of Climate Change in Agriculture in Europe. PESETA-Agriculture Study

The objective of the study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production and monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The work links biophysical and statistical models in a rigorous and testable methodology, based on current understanding of processes of crop growth and development, to quantify crop responses to changing climate conditions. European crop yield changes were modeled under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the period 2071 - 2100 and for the ECHAM4/RCA3 A2 scenario for the period 2011 - 2040. The yield changes include the direct positive effects of CO2 on the crops, the rainfed and irrigated simulations in each district. Although each scenario projects different results, all three scenarios are consistent in the spatial distribution of effects. Crop suitability and productivity increases in Northern Europe are caused by lengthened growing season, decreasing cold effects on growth, and extension of the frost-free period. Crop productivity decreases in Southern Europe are caused by shortening of the growing period, with subsequent negative effects on grain filling. It is very important to notice that the simulations considered no restrictions in water availability for irrigation due to changes in policy. In all cases, the simulations did not include restrictions in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view.JRC.J.2-The economics of climate change, energy and transpor

La prensa como medio y recurso didáctico en la resolución de problemas matemáticos

Se presenta el manejo de la prensa como medio didáctico para lograr que los alumnos vean a la Matemática inmersa en su vida cotidiana, despertando en ellos su interés en la materia, logrando transformar noticias, comentarios, anuncios, etc., de la prensa, en problemas para aplicar en ellos el quehacer matemático: cómo enfrentarlos, la búsqueda de vías de solución y la resolución exitosa de los mismos. Utilizar los medios de información del ámbito social como recurso didáctico nos permitirá cambiar esquemas tradicionales de la enseñanza por métodos y técnicas de participación activa bajo un enfoque constructivista, el objetivo del trabajo es: Ofrecer indicaciones metodológicas para propiciar en los estudiantes la utilización de modelos matemáticos en situaciones prácticas, a través del uso de la prensa

The Construction of an Iterative Concept in Latin America: Tensions and Controversies around Populism

El populismo se ha constituido como un discurso iterativo y polémico en América Latina desde mediados del siglo XX hasta nuestros días. Ha estado presente en múltiples debates y ha adquirido significaciones y valoraciones diversas. De allí que este artículo intenta problematizar el concepto de populismo de-construyendo los supuestos teóricos e ideológicos sobre los que éste se asienta y re-construyendo su valor analítico para dar cuenta del contexto histórico y contemporáneo latinoamericano.Populism has become an iterative and controversial discourse in Latin America since the mid-20th century. It has appeared in many debates, acquiring different meanings and values. In this regard, this article attempts to problematize the concept of 'populism', deconstructing the ideological and theoretical assumptions on which it is based. At the same time, we try to reconstruct its analytical value in order to account for the historical and contemporaneous context of Latin America.Fil: Quiroga, Maria Virginia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto; ArgentinaFil: Magrini, Ana Lucia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Quilmes; Argentin

Adaptation of mediterranean agriculture to climate change: evaluation of some uncertainties

Ponencia presentada en: VII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología: clima, ciudad y ecosistemas, celebrado en Madrid entre el 24 y 26 de noviembre de 2010.[ES]El cambio climático resulta en variaciones regionales de los riesgos y oportunidades para la mayoría de los agricultores del Mediterráneo en las próximas décadas. La identificación de políticas y acciones adaptación, políticas y acciones por parte de los agricultores, es difícil puesteo que es difícil comprender la incertidumbre asociada a los impactos en distintas zonas y en distintos cultivos. En este estudio evaluamos algunos aspectos relacionados con esta incertidumbre en la agricultura mediterránea. El resultado final es una evaluación del nivel de riesgo que tienen distintos cultivos en distintas zonas para apoyar la toma de decisiones relacionadas con la adaptación.[EN]Climate change inevitably results in large regional variations of risks and opportunities and will be felt by most farmers in the Mediterranean in the next decades. The interpretation of results to determine appropriate policy response is troubled with difficulties, such as understanding the local uncertainty and the interpretation of specific crop responses. Here we provide an analysis of the impact of climate and likelihood for Mediterranean agriculture. We generate multiple projections of impacts based on different models of climate change and crop response in order to capture uncertainties