Predicting Emergency Department Volume Using Forecasting Methods to Create a “Surge Response” for Noncrisis Events

Objectives:  This study investigated whether emergency department (ED) variables could be used in mathematical models to predict a future surge in ED volume based on recent levels of use of physician capacity. The models may be used to guide decisions related to on‐call staffing in non–crisis‐related surges of patient volume. Methods:  A retrospective analysis was conducted using information spanning July 2009 through June 2010 from a large urban teaching hospital with a Level I trauma center. A comparison of significance was used to assess the impact of multiple patient‐specific variables on the state of the ED. Physician capacity was modeled based on historical physician treatment capacity and productivity. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the probability that the available physician capacity would be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive in the next time period. The prediction horizons used were 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, 8 hours, and 12 hours. Five consecutive months of patient data from July 2010 through November 2010, similar to the data used to generate the models, was used to validate the models. Positive predictive values, Type I and Type II errors, and real‐time accuracy in predicting noncrisis surge events were used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of the models. Results:  The ratio of new patients requiring treatment over total physician capacity (termed the care utilization ratio [CUR]) was deemed a robust predictor of the state of the ED (with a CUR greater than 1 indicating that the physician capacity would not be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive). Prediction intervals of 30 minutes, 8 hours, and 12 hours performed best of all models analyzed, with deviances of 1.000, 0.951, and 0.864, respectively. A 95% significance was used to validate the models against the July 2010 through November 2010 data set. Positive predictive values ranged from 0.738 to 0.872, true positives ranged from 74% to 94%, and true negatives ranged from 70% to 90% depending on the threshold used to determine the state of the ED with the 30‐minute prediction model. Conclusions:  The CUR is a new and robust indicator of an ED system’s performance. The study was able to model the tradeoff of longer time to response versus shorter but more accurate predictions, by investigating different prediction intervals. Current practice would have been improved by using the proposed models and would have identified the surge in patient volume earlier on noncrisis days.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/92015/1/j.1553-2712.2012.01359.x.pd

Lifetime Economic Burden of Intimate Partner Violence Among U.S. Adults

Introduction: This study estimated the U.S. lifetime per-victim cost and economic burden of intimate partner violence. Methods: Data from previous studies were combined with 2012 U.S. National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey data in a mathematical model. Intimate partner violence was defined as contact sexual violence, physical violence, or stalking victimization with related impact (e.g., missed work days). Costs included attributable impaired health, lost productivity, and criminal justice costs from the societal perspective. Mean age at first victimization was assessed as 25 years. Future costs were discounted by 3%. The main outcome measures were the mean per-victim (female and male) and total population (or economic burden) lifetime cost of intimate partner violence. Secondary outcome measures were marginal outcome probabilities among victims (e.g., anxiety disorder) and associated costs. Analysis was conducted in 2017. Results: The estimated intimate partner violence lifetime cost was $103,767 per female victim and$23,414 per male victim, or a population economic burden of nearly $3.6 trillion (2014 US$) over victims’ lifetimes, based on 43 million U.S. adults with victimization history. This estimate included $2.1 trillion (59$1.3 trillion (37%) in lost productivity among victims and perpetrators, $73 billion (2$62 billion (2%) in other costs, including victim property loss or damage. Government sources pay an estimated $1.3 trillion (37%) of the lifetime economic burden. Conclusions: Preventing intimate partner violence is possible and could avoid substantial costs. These findings can inform the potential benefit of prioritizing prevention, as well as evaluation of implemented prevention strategies

Gender differences in distress and depression following cardiac surgery

This study examined the effects of physical health and other psychosocial variables on psychological distress and depression following coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), with a focus on gender differences. Information regarding psychological distress one year following surgery was obtained from a sample of 151 patients (112 males, 39 females), who also provided retrospective information about noncardiac chronic conditions, preoperative socioeconomic variables, postoperative social support, and immediately post-CABG depression. Medical and surgical data and postoperative cardiac conditions were retrieved from computerized medical records. Structural equation modeling with LISREL showed that distress one year following surgery was predicted by the number of noncardiac chronic illnesses, controlling for immediately post-CABG depression. Gender had only an indirect effect on distress; women reported more chronic medical conditions than did men. Analysis also revealed an interaction between gender and income: higher income men and lower income women were most likely to report depression immediately following surgery.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91264/1/Ai et al -1997-Gender differences in distress and depression following cardiac surgery JGCH.pd

World Workshop on Oral Medicine VII: Targeting the oral microbiome Part 2: Current knowledge on malignant and potentially malignant oral disorders.

Objective: The World Workshop on Oral Medicine VII chose the oral microbiome as a focus area. Part 1 presents the methodological state of the science for oral microbiome studies. Part 2 was guided by the question: What is currently known about the microbiome associated with oral squamous cell carcinoma and potentially malignant disorders of the oral mucosa?. Materials and Methods: A scoping review methodology was followed to identify and analyse relevant studies on the composition and potential functions of the oral microbiota using high-throughput sequencing techniques. The authors performed searches in PubMed and EMBASE. After removal of duplicates, a total of 239 potentially studies were identified. Results: Twenty-three studies on oral squamous cell carcinoma, two on oral leukoplakia and four on oral lichen planus were included with substantial differences in diagnostic criteria, sample type, region sequenced and sequencing method utilised. The majority of studies focused on bacterial identification and recorded statistically significant differences in the oral microbiota associated with health and disease. However, even when comparing studies of similar methodology, the microbial differences between health and disease varied considerably. No consensus on the composition of the microbiomes associated with these conditions on genus and species level could be obtained. Six studies on oral squamous cell carcinoma had included in silico predicted microbial functions (genes and/or pathways) and found some similarities between the studies. Conclusions: Attempts to reveal the microbiome associated with oral mucosal diseases are still in its infancy, and the studies demonstrate significant clinical and methodological heterogeneity across disease categories. The immense richness and diversity of the microbiota clearly illustrate that there is a need for additional methodologically comparable studies utilising deep sequencing approaches in significant cohorts of subjects together with functional analyses. Our hope is that following the recipe as outlined in our preceding companion paper, that is Part 1, will enhance achieving this in the future and elucidate the role of the oral microbiome in oral squamous cell carcinoma and potentially malignant disorders of the oral mucosa

Genetic Variants of VEGFA and FLT4 Are Determinants of Survival in Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated with Sorafenib

Molecular markers of sorafenib efficacy in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) are not available. The purpose of this study was to discover genetic markers of survival in patients with mRCC treated with sorafenib. Germline variants from 56 genes were genotyped in 295 patients with mRCC. Variant-overall survival (OS) associations were tested in multivariate regression models. Mechanistic studies were conducted to validate clinical associations. VEGFA rs1885657, ITGAV rs3816375, and WWOX rs8047917 (sorafenib arm), and FLT4 rs307826 and VEGFA rs3024987 (sorafenib and placebo arms combined) were associated with shorter OS. FLT4 rs307826 increased VEGFR-3 phosphorylation, membrane trafficking, and receptor activation. VEGFA rs1885657 and rs58159269 increased transcriptional activity of the constructs containing these variants in endothelial and RCC cell lines, and VEGFA rs58159269 increased endothelial cell proliferation and tube formation. FLT4 rs307826 and VEGFA rs58159269 led to reduced sorafenib cytotoxicity. Genetic variation in VEGFA and FLT4 could affect survival in sorafenib-treated patients with mRCC. These markers should be examined in additional malignancies treated with sorafenib and in other angiogenesis inhibitors used in mRCC. Significance: Clinical and mechanistic data identify germline genetic variants in VEGFA and FLT4 as markers of survival in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma.Peer reviewe

Molecular and Phenotypic Characteristics of Healthcare- and Community-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus at a Rural Hospital

BACKGROUND: While methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) originally was associated with healthcare, distinct strains later emerged in patients with no prior hospital contact. The epidemiology of MRSA continues to evolve. METHODS: To characterize the current epidemiology of MRSA-colonized patients entering a hospital serving both rural and urban communities, we interviewed patients with MRSA-positive admission nasal swabs between August 2009 and March 2010. We applied hospitalization risk factor, antimicrobial resistance phenotype, and multi-locus sequence genotype (MLST) classification schemes to 94 case-patients. RESULTS: By MLST analysis, we identified 15 strains with two dominant clonal complexes (CCs)-CC5 (51 isolates), historically associated with hospitals, and CC8 (27 isolates), historically of community origin. Among patients with CC5 isolates, 43% reported no history of hospitalization within the past six months; for CC8, 67% reported the same. Classification by hospitalization risk factor did not correlate strongly with genotypic classification. Sensitivity of isolates to ciprofloxacin, clindamycin, or amikacin was associated with the CC8 genotype; however, among CC8 strains, 59% were resistant to ciprofloxacin, 15% to clindamycin, and 15% to amikacin. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization history was not a strong surrogate for the CC5 genotype. Conversely, patients with a history of hospitalization were identified with the CC8 genotype. Although ciprofloxacin, clindamycin, and amikacin susceptibility distinguished CC8 strains, the high prevalence of ciprofloxacin resistance limited its predictive value. As CC8 strains become established in healthcare settings and CC5 strains disseminate into the community, community-associated MRSA definitions based on case-patient hospitalization history may prove less valuable in tracking community MRSA strains

Peaceful Uses Bona Fides: Criteria for Evaluation and Case Studies

This study applies a set of indicators to assess the peaceful nature of a state’s nuclear program. Evaluation of a country’s nuclear program relative to these indicators can help the international community to take appropriate actions to ensure that the growth of the global nuclear energy industry proceeds peacefully and to minimize nuclear proliferation risks

Adolescents with Chronic Conditions: Engagement with Children’s Mental Health Systems During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Purpose: The Covid-19 pandemic contributed to adverse adolescent mental health outcomes globally. Adolescents with chronic conditions have four times the odds of self-harm than peers. Little evidence exists to guide pediatric nurses on how to engage this vulnerable population with mental health supports as the pandemic continues. In adults with chronic conditions, positive health assets (health access literacy, health self-efficacy, and emotional wellbeing) are directly related to improved patient engagement. The objective of this study was to gain a deeper understanding of engagement with mental health supports in adolescents with chronic conditions to inform practice. Design and Methods: Using mixed methods, we surveyed and interviewed adolescents with chronic conditions aged 10-20 years. Random sampling was applied to avoid bias. Valid and reliable scales were used to measure health access literacy, health self-efficacy and emotional wellbeing. Textual data was collected using a semi-structured interview guide. Integrated data analysis was conducted using structural equation models and interpretive phenomenology. Results: 154 participants provided numerical data and 17 participants provided textual data (mean age 15.5 years; 56% female, 5.8% agender; 56% white; 16.9% Black or African American, 4.5% Asian; 51.9% Hispanic or Latinx; 23.4% LGBTQ+). The structural model was an acceptable fit for the data (CFI = 0.97, TLI = 0.95). Participants reported higher levels of health access literacy (M=3.88, SD=0.848) than health self-efficacy (M=2.98, SD=.646), and engagement (M=1.78, SD=1.71). Health access literacy predicted emotional wellbeing (B = .33, p < .001, 95% CI [.20, .50]) and health self-efficacy (B = 0.52, p < .001, 95% CI [0.42, .062]). Emotional wellbeing positively predicted health self-efficacy (B= 0.21, p < .003, 90% CI [0.10, .033]). Health self-efficacy predicted engagement (B = 0.20, p < .01, 90% CI [0.07, .034]). Participants reported not engaging until “it was really, really bad” citing fear, stigma, and lack of connectedness with providers as barriers. Practice Implications: Regardless of health access literacy and health self-efficacy, adolescents with chronic conditions may not engage until crisis levels. Pediatric nurses can aim to engage with this vulnerable population proactively