The Policy-Making Capacity of Foreign Ministries in Presidential Regimes: A Study of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, 1946–2015

his article investigates the sources of foreign ministries’ policy-making capacity in presidential regimes. Using the concept of family resemblance, we argue that professionalization of the diplomatic corps is a necessary condition, whereas the institutional attributions of the ministry and the degree of presidential delegation are relevant but substitutable elements. The higher the scores on either of the latter dimensions, the stronger is the capacity of the foreign ministry to influence the chief executive and to contest other players’ policy preferences. To empirically validate our concept, we measure the three dimensions in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico between 1946 and 2015 using data on diplomats’ recruitment and career paths, influence of diplomatic schools and doctrines, appointment patterns of foreign ministers, and relevance of presidential diplomacy, with an emphasis on travels abroad. Our analysis indicates that Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico enjoy a high level of professionalization of their diplomatic corps; however, differences—both across countries and over time—remain regarding institutional attributions and presidential delegation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Presidential Delegation to Foreign Ministries: A Study of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico (1946–2015)

When do presidents delegate policy-making authority to their foreign ministries? And is foreign policy unique in this respect? We posit that six international, national, and personal factors determine the opportunity and motivation of presidents to delegate, and then analyse the cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico in 1946–2015. By applying fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, we find that four combinations of factors are sufficient paths to delegation: (1) international stability and elite consensus on foreign policy; (2) international stability, right-wing president, and low diplomatic professionalisation; (3) international stability, right-wing president, and low presidential expertise on foreign policy; or (4) absence of authoritarianism combined with elite consensus on foreign policy and right-wing president. Our study of foreign ministries reinforces some of the main findings of the scholarly literature on other ministries, thus challenging the view of foreign policy-making as different from domestic policy areas.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Regimes e intervenção política dos militares no Brasil

As relações entre o poder político e as forças armadas são peça-chave para o funcionamento de quase todos os sistemas políticos. Ao longo de 200 anos de história, os militares desempenharam papel de relevo ou na criação ou no fim de todos os sete regimes políticos que o Brasil teve. Portanto, analisar o papel político das Forças Armadas brasileiras e suas consequências é tema crucial e complexo. Dialogando de forma seletiva com a vasta bibliografia sobre o assunto, este ensaio revisita a história nacional em busca dos aspectos mais marcantes das relações entre Forças Armadas e política e entre civis e militares. A conclusão a que se chega é enfaticamente pessimista: há uma relação negativa entre a relevância política dos militares e a qualidade da democracia no Brasil.The relations between political power and the armed forces are key to the functioning of almost every political system. Throughout 200 years of history, the military has played a major role in either the creation or the end of all seven political regimes that Brazil has had. Therefore, analyzing the political role of the Brazilian Armed Forces and its consequences is a crucial and complex issue. Dialoguing selectively with the vast literature on the subject, this essay revisits national history in search of the most outstanding aspects of the relations between the armed forces and politics and between civilians and the military. The conclusion is emphatically pessimistic: there is a negative relationship between the political relevance of the military and the quality of democracy in Brazil

Rainfall characteristics and erosion risk in the Brazilian semi-a, d tropical region

A variabilidade anual da precipitação e da erosividade foi avaliada utilizando-se dados do posto meteorológico de Catolé do Rocha, PB. Resguardando-se as limitações da utilização de apenas uma localidade e de um período relativamente curto, os resultados permitiram as seguintes conclusões: 1. A precipitação anual é muito variável e a sua distribuição é extremamente irregular. 2. Grandes precipitações diárias são mais frequentes em janeiro, março e abril. 3. Aproximadamente 44% da precipitação tem intensidade superior a 20 mm/h. 4. As intensidades máxima da chuva, para períodos de ocorrência superiores a 30 min, foram maiores do que as de outras regiões tropicais brasileiras. 5. O período de maior risco de erosão, por falta de cobertura vegetal e por causa da mobilização de solo para o plantio, vai de janeiro a março.The annual variability of the rainfall and the erosivity were evaluated for Catolé do Rocha, PB, Brazil. Although the data records correspond to only one location for a relatively short period, the analysis permits the following conclusions: 1. The annual rainfall is highly variable and its distribution is very irregular. 2. The highest daily rainfalls are more frequent in January, March and April. 3. More than 44% for the annual precipitation has Intensity higher than 20 mm/h. 4. The highest rainfall intensities for periods longer than 30 min were higher than in other brazilian tropical regions. 5. The critical period for erosion losses is January-March, because the soil is bare and is being prepared for planting

Duverger, semi-presidentialism and the supposed French archetype

The concept of semi-presidentialism was first operationalised by Maurice Duverger. There are now 17 countries with semi-presidential constitutions in Europe. Within this set of countries France is usually considered to be the archetypal example of semi-presidentialism. This article maps the main institutional and political features of European semi-presidentialism on the basis of Duverger’s original three-fold schema. The most striking feature is the diversity of practice within this set of countries. This means that semi-presidentialism should not be operationalised as a discrete explanatory variable. However, there are ways of systematically capturing the variation within semi-presidentialism to allow cross-national comparisons. This diversity also means that France should not be considered as the archetypal semi-presidential country. At best, France is an archetypal example of a particular type of semi-presidentialism. Overall, Duverger’s main contribution to the study of semi-presidentialism was the original identification of the concept and his implicit insight that there are different types of semi-presidentialism. In the future, the study of semi-presidentialism would benefit from the development of theory-driven comparative work that avoids a reliance on France as the supposed semi-presidential archetype