Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods

Investigating Performance-based Budgeting and Performance Control in Iran's Executive Apparatus Using Balanced Scorecard Technique

In this research, operational budgeting was investigated in the form of four groups of contextual factors, structural factors, human factors and other factors on operational and research budgeting with analytical model, balanced evaluation method. The statistical population of this study is all executive bodies subject to Article (5) of the Civil Service Management Law. Data were obtained using 182 questionnaires and analyzed using structural equation method and Smart PLS software. In this model, the balanced evaluation method was adapted to the three-part cycle of performance management and a three-part model of performance management, based on balanced measurement, is obtained. The results showed that the identified structures in operational budgeting have a positive and significant effect on the performance of executive agencies. The structures of “structural factors”, “human factors” and “other factors affecting the implementation of operational budgeting (including personality, acceptance and ability)” have a positive and significant effect on performance, but the structure of “underlying factors” has a significant effect. It does not affect the performance of executive agencies.IntroductionIn traditional budgeting, the goals and emphasis are based solely on financial instruments and accounting of receipts and payments of the public sector (Mio et al., 2022). Also, in the traditional method of budgeting, the ability to plan long-term is limited and the possibility of achieving operations and budget monitoring is very weak.The problem that exists is that organizations pay less attention to budgeting in a new way and as a result, it is not used seriously in strategic decisions. Therefore, the effect of the operational budgeting method on the performance of organizations is not clear (Park & Jang, 2022). On the other hand, despite the sensitivity of the budget and the importance of its economic allocation, this issue has not been seriously considered yet. Therefore, it is necessary to study, discuss and review operational budgeting in organizations.Research QuestionsDespite the different emphasis and requirements of the country's development programs on the implementation of operational budgeting, the following questions are raised:What is the operational budgeting mechanism? What factors, including contextual, structural, human and other factors, are effective on the implementation of operational budgeting? What kind of budgeting model do Iran's executive bodies use? What are the important and influential factors related to operational budgeting? What are the obstacles and problems of operational budgeting in Iran's executive bodies? How to solve the current operational budgeting obstacles and problems?Research hypothesesBased on the theoretical foundations of operational budgeting as well as balanced evaluation and research history, the following hypotheses are presented:The main hypothesis: Operational budgeting variables are effective on the performance of Iran's executive bodies (using the balanced evaluation technique). Sub-hypotheses1) Structural factors in the establishment of operational budgeting are effective on the performance of Iran's executive bodies (using the balanced evaluation technique).2) Background factors in the establishment of operational budgeting are effective on the performance of Iran's executive bodies (using the balanced evaluation technique).3) Human factors in the establishment of operational budgeting are effective on the performance of Iran's executive bodies (using the balanced evaluation technique).4) Other effective factors in the establishment of operational budgeting (including personality factors, acceptance and ability) are effective on the performance of Iran's executive bodies (using the balanced evaluation technique).Literature ReviewThe theoretical foundations of operational budgeting are based on agency theory (Arief, (2020)) and organizational performance improvement (Derfuss, (2016)). In operational budgeting, instead of being based on cost materials, budget information is based on activities, and the results of performance measurement are provided with performance reports. The design and implementation of operational budgeting in any organization is based on three important factors: “planning”, “costing” and “organizational performance evaluation”. Activity-based costing (ABC) is the heart of operational budgeting and the main pillar in budget calculations (Azer and Khadivar, 2013), because activity-based costing is much more suitable for planning and control than traditional methods and provides more accurate information in this field. makes (Namazi, 1998 and 1999).MethodologyThis research is among the few researches that uses the scientific method of construction and experimental proof and is carried out based on pre-determined hypotheses and research plans. (Namazi, 2003). The method of data collection is a questionnaire. The information obtained from the measurement of the variables for the purpose of research tests was used from structural equations and the information was analyzed using Smart PLS version 2 and SPSS version 25 software.ResultsThe value of the T statistic and its statistical significance for the first main hypothesis and all balanced evaluation factors at the 95% confidence level shows as follows:The main hypothesis test: The structures identified in operational budgeting have a positive and significant effect on the performance of executive bodies.The first sub-hypothesis: The structures identified in the operational budgeting structural factors have a positive and significant effect on the performance of executive bodies.The second sub-hypothesis: The strength of the model and the background factors of operational budgeting do not have a significant effect on the performance of executive bodies.The third sub-hypothesis: The structures identified in human factors of operational budgeting have a positive and significant effect on the performance of executive bodies.The fourth sub-hypothesis: The structures identified in other effective factors in operational budgeting have a positive and significant effect on the performance of executive.DiscussionThe purpose of this study was to expand the theoretical foundations and provide empirical evidence in the field of operational budgeting in Iran. This development was done by presenting a conceptual model, explaining the organization's strategy and presenting 5 balanced evaluation criteria and testing related hypotheses. The findings of the study confirmed the theoretical foundations of operational budgeting and balanced evaluation. The results of the main hypothesis test of the research showed that the structures identified in operational budgeting have a positive and significant effect on the performance of executive bodies.ConclusionThe findings of the first, third and fourth sub-hypothesis showed that the structures identified in the structural factors, human factors and other operating budgeting factors of operational budgeting, have a positive and significant effect on the performance of executive bodies.The results of the second sub-hypothesis test showed that the variable of operational budgeting background factors does not have a statistically significant effect on the performance of executive bodies. The reason for this can be related to the governmental nature of executive bodies, non-compliance with the requirement to establish operational budgeting and cultural factors such as the resistance of employees and managers to new changes in the body

A stochastic reconstruction framework for analysis of water resource system vulnerability to climate-induced changes in river flow regime

Assessments of potential impacts of climate change on water resources systems are generally based on the use of downscaled climate scenarios to force hydrological and water resource systems models and hence quantify potential changes in system response. This approach, however, has several limitations. The uncertainties in current climate and hydrological models can be large, such analyses are rapidly outdated as new scenarios become available, and limited insight into system response is obtained. Here, we propose an alternative methodology in which system vulnerability is analyzed directly as a function of the potential variations in flow characteristics. We develop a stochastic reconstruction framework that generates a large ensemble of perturbed flow series at the local scale to represent a range of potential flow responses to climate change. From a theoretical perspective, the proposed reconstruction scheme can be considered as an extension of both the conventional resampling and the simple delta-methods. By the use of a two-parameter representation of regime change (i.e., the shift in the timing of the annual peak and the shift in the annual flow volume), system vulnerability can be visualized in a two-dimensional map. The methodology is applied to the current water resource system in southern Alberta, Canada, to explore the system's vulnerability to potential changes in the streamflow regime. Our study shows that the system is vulnerable to the expected decrease in annual flow volume, particularly when it is combined with an earlier annual peak. Under such conditions, adaptation will be required to return the system to the feasible operational mode. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

An Investigation of the Balanced-Scorecard's Applications for Hotel Indusry(Evidence from Mashad)

The implementation of financial and nonfinancial perspectives of Balanced scorecard(BSC) is investigated in this study. The extent of using these perspectives is reported at 39 good quality hotels by queationaire and using statistical nonparametric techniques(such as Friedman and Kruskal Wallis statistics). The results show that although the BSC is not implemented in the sample hotels, but the following aspects are more considered by the managers: asset management programs as a financial aspect, keeping safety programs as an internal process aspect, separation of duties and delegating tasks as the learnings and growth perspective and customer consideration(customer attraction, customer preservation and handling customer complaints). These findings help managers in this indusry to perform evaluation and setting strategy

The Acute Oral Toxicity of Commonly Used Pesticides in Iran, to Honeybees (Apis Mellifera Meda)

The honey bee is credited with approximately 85% of the pollinating activity necessary to supply about one-third of the world’s food supply. Well over 50 major crops depend on these insects for pollination. The crops produce more abundantly when honey bees are plentiful. Worker bees are the ones primarily affected by pesticides. Poisoning symptoms can vary depending on the developmental stage of the individual bee, and the kind of chemical employed. The oral toxicity of these insecticides: (phosalone and pirimicarb), acaricide (propargite), insecticide and acaricide (fenpropathrin), fungicides, and bactericides (copper oxychloride and the Bordeaux mixture), were evaluated for the purposes of this research. The results showed that fenpropathrin had high acute oral toxicity (LC50-24h and LC50-48 were 0.54 and 0.3 ppm, respectively). Propargite had 7785 ppm (active ingredient) for LC50-24h and 6736 ppm (active ingredient) for LC50-48h in honeybees and is therefore, non-toxic to Apis mellifera. On the other hand, copper oxychloride had minimum acute oral toxicity to honeybees (LC50-24h and LC50-48 were 4591.5 and 5407.9 ppm, respectively) and was therefore considered non-toxic. Also, the Bordeaux mixture was safe to use around honeybees. Phosalone and primicarb were considered highly and moderately toxic to honeybees, respectively