Discount Bayesian models and forecasting

This thesis is concerned with Bayesian forecasting and sequential estimation. The concept of multiple discounting is introduced in order to achieve parametric and conceptual parsimony. In addition, this overcomes many of the drawbacks of the Normal Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) specification which uses a system variance matrix. These drawbacks involve ambiguity and invariance to the scale of independent variables. A class of Normal Discount Bayesian Models (NDBM) is introduced to overcome these difficulties. Facilities for parameter learning and multiprocess modelling are provided. Unlike the DLM's, many limiting results are easily obtained for NDBMM's. A general class of Normal Weighted Bayesian Models (NWBM) is introduced. This includes the class of DLM's as a special case. Other important subclasses of Extended and Modified NWBM's are also introduced. These are particularly useful in modelling discontinuities and for systems which operates according to the principle of Management by Exception. A number of illustrative applications are given

Forecasting Models for Different Horizons

A general class of models is introduced to provide robust and practically simple forecasts for different horizons.  These are obtained in the presence of both high and low frequencies in the data.  A sub-model is constructed to estimate low frequency state parameters and the results obtained are used as conditional information in modelling the high frequency parameters.  All parameters have probability distributions and the discount principle of Ameen and Harrison (1985) is used in the posterior‑prior state distribution transitions.  A number of limiting results and special cases are also discussed

Exploring the views of dentists and dental support staff regarding multiple caries in children

This paper explores the reasons for multiple caries in children from the viewpoint of clinical practice, namely General Dental Practitioners (GDPs) and their teams, to identify obstacles to reducing inequalities in caries experience. The context of the research is the distribution of dental caries in UK communities where disease prevalence correlates with deprivation and these sub-groups are not attending for dental care on a regular basis. A focus group of dentists, along with individual interviews with dentists and dental support staff were chosen to explore the perceptions of GDPs, Dental Therapists, and Dental Nurses. The content analysis of the data highlighted six main themes. These included sugar, in terms of the amount, availability and the marketing of it; socioeconomic associations with dental caries experience; the dentists’ role; the National Health Service (NHS) dental contract in terms of time-constraints in meeting targets and finally, the management of the child with multiple caries. This research suggests that there are possible barriers to the delivery of equitable care to populations. These include availability and access to GDPs along with the perceptions held by GDPs. Training aimed to develop a targeted behavioural approach towards deprived sub-groups is required in order to avoid unintended social exclusion

Plasmid DNA Analysis of Pasteurella multocida Serotype B isolated from Haemorrhagic Septicaemia outbreaks in Malaysia

A total of 150 purified isolates of Pasteurella multocida serotype B were used (Salmah, 2004) for plasmid DNA curing experiment to determine hyaluronidase activity, antibiotic resistance pattern (ARP) and mice lethality test (LD50) for their role of pathogenicity. A plasmid curing experiment was carried out by using the intercalating agent; ethidium bromide and rifampicin, where it was found all the plasmids had been cured (plasmidless) from Pasteurella multocida. All of these plasmidless isolates maintained their phenotypic characteristics. They showed the same antibiotic resistancepattern as before curing, produced hyaluronidase and possessed lethality activity in mice when injected intraperitoneally(i.p). Based on this observation, the antibiotic resistance, hyaluronidase activity and mice virulence could probably be chromosomal-mediated. Plasmids were detected 100% in all P. multocida isolates with identical profile of 2 plasmids size 3.0 and 5.5 kb. No large plasmids could be detected in all isolates. Since all the isolates appeared to have identicalplasmid profiles, they were subjected to restriction enzyme(RE) analysis. From RE analysis results obtained, it can be concluded that the plasmid DNA in serotype B isolates are identical. Only 4 of 32 REs were found to cleave these plasmids with identical restriction fingerprints; BglII, HaeIII, RsaI and SspI. From RE analysis results, it can be concluded that the plasmid DNA isolates are identical. This plasmid might not played any role in pathogenicity of Pasteurella multocida serotype B, however this information is important for the construction of shuttle vectors in genetic studies of the pathogenicity of haemorrhagic septicaemia(HS)

Assessment of the relationship between depression and treatment compliance in chronically-ill patients in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Purpose: To find the relationship between depression, treatment adherence and lifestyle changes inchronically-ill patients residing in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted. A self-administered questionnaire was used tocollect data from patients of multi-healthcare centers located in Jeddah. The questionnaire aimed tocollect the information regarding patients’ levels of medication compliance, patients’ capacity to copewith the disease and adherence to medication, along with their depression level.Results: Of the overall sample size of 439 patients, 43.1 % were suffering from hypertension, 37.8 %were diabetic and 33.7 % had hyperlipidemia. Besides, total scores of Patient Health Questionnaire-9(PHQ-9) showed that approximately 5 % patients were severely depressed, 8 % had moderately severedepression, 27 % had moderate depression, and 60 % had mild depression. Compliance scale datarevealed that 38 % patients showed low compliance, 51 % showed partial compliance, and 11 %showed high compliance. Also, a significant inverse relationship between depression and compliancescales (rs = -0.221, p = 0.004) was observed.Conclusion: The results show an inverse association between depression and medication adherencein patients with chronic disease in Jeddah. Therefore, clinicians are advised to assess the level ofdepression in chronically-ill patients in order to improve their adherence to medicine.Keywords: Chronic illness, Depression, Medication adherence, Treatment complianc

Civil Society in Iraqi Kurdistan: a historical perspective

This article analyses the history of civil society organisations (CSOs) in Iraqi Kurdistan, which has passed through several stages due to the attitudes of the political systems that have ruled Iraq. In this regard, under the rule of several Iraqi governments, CSOs in Iraqi Kurdistan were banned and repressed from their inception until 1991 because they were a living part of the Kurdish society, which was in the process of liberation. However, since the establishment of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), they have been given some freedom to work, which has led to their growth. Nevertheless, CSOs have faced many internal and external obstacles in recent years. This study is based on a scientific method and uses historical and political analysis to show the historical reality of CSOs in Iraqi Kurdistan. Despite having a long history of difficult periods, since 1991, with the establishment of the first cabinet of the KRG, CSOs’ activities have increased. Nevertheless, in recent years, CSOs have faced many internal and external obstacles, though they continue to grow and remain agile

Neuropathic Changes of Osmicated Common Peroneal and Tibial Nerve in Diabetic Patients and the Related Risk Factors

      So much studies done to present the diabetic neuropathic changes of the peripheral nerves but most of them were done experimentally on laboratory animals , but little about human diabetic neuropathic and structural changes specially of large nerves like common peroneal and tibial nerve .Accordingly the present work designed to study the neuropathic changes of the tibial and common peroneal nerve samples, taken from amputated legs of 30 diabetic patients (8 females and 22 males) at age ranging between (55-75) years, and from 30 cadavers (4 females and 26 males) at age ranging between (25-50) years as control group. The teased and osmicated tibial and common peroneal nerve fibers, and histological sections taken from diabetic patients showed different deformity and Morphometrical changes, of that ; paranodal swelling, segmental demyelination, some areas with an areas of un even myelin and shortest segmentation the (common peroneal nerve 22µ and tibial nerve 265µ ) in comparison to the control group. The multiple regression analysis, showed significant effect of age of the patient and duration of diabetes on the neuropathic changes

Examining the significance of civil society in augmenting and empowering youth; within the context of Iraqi Kurdistan

This scholarly abstract delves into the pivotal role of civil society organisations in the advancement and empowerment of youth in the region of Iraqi Kurdistan. In the dynamic socio-political landscape of the Kurdistan region, civil society entities have emerged as vital agents of change and progress. This article explores the multifaceted strategies and initiatives undertaken by these organisations to address the diverse needs and aspirations of Kurdish youth. It delves into the challenges faced and the innovative approaches employed, shedding light on the transformational potential that civil society can offer in nurturing a more resilient and empowered youth population. This study uses historical, descriptive, and case studies to establish that youth CSOs play a vital role in the democratisation and political process in Iraqi Kurdistan. Given the serious dependence of youth CSOs on freedom for their operations, by scrutinising the intricate interplay between civil society and youth development, this article aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners invested in the sustainable growth and prosperity of youth in Iraqi Kurdistan