Deportations and the Roots of Gang Violence in Central America

El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala count among today’s most violent countries of the world. Qualitative research has claimed that large-scale deportations of Central American convicts have played an important role for the spread of gangs and rampant violence in the region. Using a novel identification strategy, this paper provides the first econometric evidence for this hypothesis from the case of El Salvador. Regarding the dependent variable, the policy experiment of a truce between rivaling gangs in 2012 allows to single out gang-related killings from overall homicide rates. The explanatory variable exploits subnational variation in the exposure of migrant communities to exogenous conditions in the host country. Violence spilled over to migrants’ places of origin when migrant corridors developed around US destinations with high pre-existing levels of violent crime. The cross-sectional evidence is backed by panel data analysis dating back to 1999. The annual inflow of convicts translated into rising homicides mainly in those municipalities whose migrants were exposed to high pre-existing crime at destination, whereas deportations of non-convicts did not have the same effect. These finding are in line with evidence on the origin of Central American gangs in US cities and convicts’ return to their places of birth after massive deportations since the mid-1990s

Carrying the financial burden of health shocks in national and transnational households

The assumption that remittances are a substitute for credit has been an implicit or explicit theoretical foundation of many empirical studies on remittances. This paper directly tests this assumption by comparing the response to health-related shocks among national and transnational households using panel data from Mexico for 2002 and 2005. While the occurrence of serious health shocks that required hospital treatment doubled the average debt burden of exposed households compared to the control group, households with nuclear family members (a parent, child, or spouse) in the US did not increase their debts due to health shocks. This finding is consistent with the view that remittances respond to households’ demand for financing emergencies and make them less reliant on debt-financing

Evidence from Mexican household data

In policy discussions, it has frequently been claimed that migrants’ remittances could function as a ‘catalyst’ for financial access among receiving households. This paper provides empirical evidence on this hypothesis from Mexico, a major receiver of remittances worldwide. Using the Mexican Family Life Survey panel (MxFLS) for 2002 and 2005, the results from the fixed effects logit model show that receiving remittances is strongly correlated with the ownership of savings accounts and, to some degree, with the availability of borrowing options. These effects are more important for rural households than for urban households and are more important for microfinance institutions, than for traditional banks

Are Remittances a 'Catalyst' for Financial Access? Evidence from Mexico

In policy discussions, it has frequently been claimed that migrants' remittances could function as a 'catalyst' for financial access among receiving households. This paper provides empirical evidence on this hypothesis from Mexico, a main receiver of remittances worldwide. Using the Mexican Family Life Survey panel (MxFLS) for 2002 and 2005, the results from the treatment-effect-model at household level show that a change in remittance status has an important impact on ownership of savings accounts and the availability of borrowing options. This effect is significant for rural, but not for urban households and important for microfinance institutions, but not for traditional banks. --Remittances,Mexico,Financial Access,Microfinance

US Deportations & the Spread of Violence

Existing literature on cross-national variation in violence has paid little attention to the transnational transmission of crime. One such channel are the forced returns of migrants with a criminal record in their countries of temporary residence. Responding to this research gap, we study the effect of US deportations of convicts on levels of violent crime in deportees’ countries of origin for a cross-country panel of up to 123 countries covering the years 2003 to 2015. We find a strong and robust effect of criminal deportations on homicide rates in countries of origin, that is to a large degree driven by deportations towards Latin America and the Caribbean. An additional inflow of ten deportees with a criminal history per 100,000 increases expected homicide rates by more than two. In addition to controlling for country-specific fixed effects, we provide evidence on a causal effect using an instrumental variable approach, that exploits spatial and time variation in migrant populations’ exposure to state level immigration policies in the U

Do Remittances Increase Borrowing?

While recent literature has pointed out that migrants’ remittances have a positive impact on savings with financial institutions, findings with respect to access to and the use of loans have been ambiguous. This paper investigates whether the reception of remittances facilitates taking up loans from formal or informal sources among Mexican households and finds positive and statistically significant effects of remittances on borrowing and on the existence of debts. We address methodological concerns of selection bias and reverse causality through household fixed effects and an instrumental strategy that exploits distance to train lines and labor market conditions in the US as exogenous determinants of remittances

Return migration, crime, and electoral engagement in Mexico

Since 2006, the Great Recession and tighter migration policies in the U.S. have increased the rates of return migration to Mexico. Scholars debate whether high rates of return motivate greater electoral engagement via the democratic norms returnees may bring back with them. An alternative account holds that returnees are seen as dissimilar by their non-migrant co-nationals, causing returnees to disengage from politics. We contribute to this debate using municipal data on voter turnout and on rates of return migration for the case of Mexico from 2000 to 2010. Relying on an instrumental strategy that exploits migrants’ exposure to changes in unemployment rates as an exogenous predictor for return, we find robust evidence that high rates of return result in less electoral participation in presidential and local elections. Besides, electoral disengagement seems to be intensified by the presence of criminal violence, which surged during our period of analysis. Return migration may have a positive impact on other modes of political participation; but at least when it comes to voting, our research aligns with the pessimistic camp of the debate in that return migration increases electoral apathy

Alte Pfade der Integration und der Versuch, nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg neue Wege einzuschlagen: das Beispiel der Infrastrukturen in Europa

'Der Aufsatz beschäftigt sich am Beispiel der ersten Versuche zur Formulierung einer Verkehrspolitik der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft mit der Frage, warum es nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg so schwierig war, neue Wege zur Integration von Infrastrukturen in Europa einzuschlagen. Es wird die These vertreten, dass dabei neben den Inhalten von Politik auch institutionelle Pfadabhängigkeiten - im Sinne der Neuen Institutionenökonomik - eine nicht zu unterschätzende Rolle spielten. In methodischer Hinsicht kommen die Verfasser zu dem Ergebnis, dass das Konzept der Pfadabhängigkeit aus der Perspektive des Historikers eine Reihe von Defiziten aufweist, die in erster Linie auf die Interpretierbarkeit, die schwierige Abgrenzung und das hohe Abstraktionsniveau ihrer Analysekategorien zurückzuführen sind. Institutionelle Persistenzen werden letztlich als nur auf einer makro- oder meso-historischen Untersuchungsebene nachweisbar bewertet.' (Autorenreferat)'This article investigates the difficulties in taking new paths towards the integration of infrastructure sectors after World War II. Focus is laid on the early EEC transport policy. The authors support the hypothesis that apart from different national policies institutional path dependencies - in the sense of New Institutional Economics - played a crucial role for the failure of the EEC's common transport policy. Regarding the methodological approach the authors draw the conclusion that the concept of path dependencies suffers from a number of deficits like analytical categories which are difficult to distinguish or the high level of abstraction. Institutional persistencies are considered primarily provable on a macro- or mesohistorical level of analysis.' (author's abstract

Geldsendungen von Migranten - "Manna" für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung?

Remittances - finanzielle Rücküberweisungen von Migranten in ihre Heimatländer - haben in der letzten Dekade spektakuläre Wachstumsraten erlebt und dadurch eine internationale "Remittance-Euphorie" ausgelöst. Zahlreiche Reports und Konferenzen haben sich dem Thema gewidmet, und in den Augen mancher Regierender scheinen die Geldüberweisungen von Migranten an ihre zu Hause gebliebenen Familien wie Manna vom Himmel zu fallen. Migranten werden zunehmend als neue Akteure der Entwicklungsförderung entdeckt und auf nationaler und internationaler Ebene sind Initiativenergriffen worden, den Entwicklungsbeitrag der Rücküberweisungen zu fördern. Ein differenzierter Blick auf die Wirkungsweisen von Remittances zeigt, dass sie durchaus das Potential haben, wirtschaftliche Entwicklung zu beschleunigen. Dieses zum Tragen zu bringen, stellt jedoch die Politik in den Sende- ebenso wie in den Empfängerländern vor große Herausforderungen. (GIGA

Body Composition Estimation in Youth Athletes: Agreement Between Two-Component Methods

Body composition techniques such as skinfold measurements, air displacement plethysmography, and underwater weighing are commonly performed in athletic populations, particularly in youth athletes who may not have access to other laboratory methods. However, little is known whether such body composition estimates can be directly compared across techniques. PURPOSE: To determine the agreement between common two-component (2C) body composition techniques. METHODS: 90 youth athletes (Males: 39; Females: 51; Age: 18.2 ± 2.4 years; Height: 172.0 ± 9.9 cm; Body Mass: 69.0 ± 12.5 kg; Underwater Weighing [UWW] Body Fat Percentage [%BF]: 20.2 ± 7.0%) participated in this study. 2C estimates of %BF were determined via UWW, air displacement plethysmography (ADP), and 7-site skinfold (SKF) using the applicable Jackson-Pollock equation. Body mass was measured via calibrated scale. Agreement between methods was quantified using Lin’s concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). Estimates of body fat percentage were also compared between techniques using paired samples t-tests (α \u3c 0.05) and equivalence testing, with the threshold of equivalence set at ± 2% body fat. RESULTS: Mean ± SD %BF estimates were 20.2 ± 7.0% (UWW), 18.7 ± 7.3% (ADP), and 16.1 ± 7.2% (SKF). Mean differences between methods were 1.6% [95% CI: 0.8, 2.3] for UWW vs. ADP, 4.1% [95% CI: 3.4, 4.8] for UWW vs. SKF, and 2.6% [95% CI: 1.9, 3.2] for ADP vs. SKF. Paired-samples t-tests revealed significant differences between %BF estimates for each comparison. Likewise, no methods were found to be equivalent, based on a ± 2% BF equivalence range. CCC values were 0.855 for UWW vs. ADP, 0.759 for UWW vs. SKF, and 0.844 for ADP vs. SKF. CONCLUSION: This study suggests limited agreement between 2C %BF estimates derived from three common assessment techniques. Hypothesis testing revealed significant differences between methods, and the magnitude of these differences resulted in non-equivalence at ± 2% BF. Based on these results, it appears that direct comparisons between 2C %BF estimates from these different techniques should be avoided if possible. Though the magnitude of the differences between techniques may be acceptable in certain contexts, coaches and clinicians should strive to utilize the same assessment methodology when examining and comparing body composition results across time