Interval estimates for posterior probabilities in a multivariate normal classification model

AbstractThis paper is devoted to the asymptotic distribution of estimators for the posterior probability that a p-dimensional observation vector originates from one of k normal distributions with identical covariance matrices. The estimators are based on training samples for the k distributions involved. Observation vector and prior probabilities are regarded as given constants. The validity of various estimators and approximate confidence intervals is investigated by simulation experiments

The Effect of Statins and Other Cardiovascular Medication on Ischemia-Reperfusion Damage in a Human DIEP Flap Model: Theoretical and Epidemiological Considerations

Background. Statins and other cardiovascular medication possess antioxidant capacity. It was examined whether chronic use of these medications protects from the development of ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) related complications after DIEP (Deep Inferior Epigastric Perforator Free Flap) surgery. This paper contains a literature study on the antioxidant working mechanisms of these drugs. Methods. Medical information of 134 DIEP patients (173 flaps) was studied from their medical files. Patient and operative characteristics were registered, as well as I/R related complications. Results. Of the group that didnot use statins, 16.3% developed complications versus 30.8% amongst patients that did use these drugs (P = 0.29). Amongst patients that chronically use other cardiovascular medication, 26.8% developed I/R related complications versus 14.4% of the patients without medication (P = 0.10). Conclusions. Chronic use of statins or other cardiovascular medication didnot decrease the occurrence of I/R related complications after DIEP surgery. Therefore, research should be aimed at evaluating short-term pre-treatment with statins

Effectiveness of a home-based cognitive behavioral program to manage concerns about falls in community-dwelling, frail older people: results of a randomized controlled trial

Background: Concerns about falls are common among older people. These concerns, also referred to as fear of falling, can have serious physical and psychosocial consequences, such as functional decline, increased risk of falls, activity restriction, and lower social participation. Although cognitive behavioral group programs to reduce concerns about falls are available, no home-based approaches for older people with health problems, who may not be able to attend such group programs are available yet. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of a home-based cognitive behavioral program on concerns about falls, in frail, older people living in the community. Methods: In a randomized controlled trial in the Netherlands, 389 people aged 70 years and older, in fair or poor perceived health, who reported at least some concerns about falls and related activity avoidance were allocated to a control (n = 195) or intervention group (n = 194). The intervention was a home-based, cognitive behavioral program consisting of seven sessions including three home visits and four telephone contacts. The program aims to instill adaptive and realistic views about fall risks via cognitive restructuring and to increase activity and safe behavior using goal setting and action planning and was facilitated by community nurses. Control group participants received usual care. Outcomes at 5 and 12 months follow-up were concerns about falls, activity avoidance due to concerns about falls, disability and falls. Results: At 12 months, the intervention group showed significant lower levels of concerns about falls compared to the control group. Furthermore, significant reductions in activity avoidance, disability and indoor falls were identified in the intervention group compared with the control group. Effect sizes were small to medium. No significant difference in total number of falls was noted between the groups. Conclusions: The home-based, cognitive behavioral program significantly reduces concerns about falls, related activity avoidance, disability and indoor falls in community-living, frail older people. The program may prolong independent living and provides an alternative for those people who are not able or willing to attend group programs

Does the risk of childhood diabetes mellitus require revision of the guideline values for nitrate in drinking water?

In recent years, several studies have addressed a possible relationship between nitrate exposure and childhood type 1 insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. The present ecologic study describes a possible relation between the incidence of type 1 diabetes and nitrate levels in drinking water in The Netherlands, and evaluates whether the World Health Organization and the European Commission standard for nitrate in drinking water (50 mg/L) is adequate to prevent risk of this disease. During 1993-1995 in The Netherlands, 1,104 cases of type 1 diabetes were diagnosed in children 0-14 years of age. We were able to use 1,064 of these cases in a total of 2,829,020 children in this analysis. We classified mean nitrate levels in drinking water in 3,932 postal code areas in The Netherlands in 1991-1995 into two exposure categories. One category was based on equal numbers of children exposed to different nitrate levels (0.25-2.08, 2.10-6.42, and 6.44-41.19 mg/L nitrate); the other was based on cut-off values of 10 and 25 mg/L nitrate. We determined standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for type 1 diabetes in subgroups of the 2,829,020 children with respect to both nitrate exposure categories, sex, and age and as compared in univariate analysis using the chi-square test for trend. We compared the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) by multivariate analysis in a Poisson regression model. We found an effect of increasing age of the children on incidence of type 1 diabetes, but we did not find an effect of sex or of nitrate concentration in drinking water using the two exposure categories. For nitrate levels > 25 mg/L, an increased SIR and an increased IRR of 1.46 were observed; however, this increase was not statistically significant, probably because of the small number of cases (15 of 1,064). We concluded that there is no convincing evidence that nitrate in drinking water at current exposure levels is a risk factor for childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in The Netherlands, although a threshold value > 25 mg/L for the occurrence of this disease can not be excluded

New Insight in Loss of Gut Barrier during Major Non-Abdominal Surgery

PG - e3954 AB - BACKGROUND: Gut barrier loss has been implicated as a critical event in the occurrence of postoperative complications. We aimed to study the development of gut barrier loss in patients undergoing major non-abdominal surgery. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Twenty consecutive children undergoing spinal fusion surgery were included. This kind of surgery is characterized by long operation time, significant blood loss, prolonged systemic hypotension, without directly leading to compromise of the intestines by intestinal manipulation or use of extracorporeal circulation. Blood was collected preoperatively, every two hours during surgery and 2, 4, 15 and 24 hours postoperatively. Gut mucosal barrier was assessed by plasma markers for enterocyte damage (I-FABP, I-BABP) and urinary presence of tight junction protein claudin-3. Intestinal mucosal perfusion was measured by gastric tonometry (P(r)CO2, P(r-a)CO2-gap). Plasma concentration of I-FABP, I-BABP and urinary expression of claudin-3 increased rapidly and significantly after the onset of surgery in most children. Postoperatively, all markers decreased promptly towards baseline values together with normalisation of MAP. Plasma levels of I-FABP, I-BABP were significantly negatively correlated with MAP at (1/2) hour before blood sampling (-0.726 (p<0.001), -0.483 (P<0.001), respectively). Furthermore, circulating I-FABP correlated with gastric mucosal P(r)CO2, P(r-a)CO2-gap measured at the same time points (0.553 (p = 0.040), 0.585 (p = 0.028), respectively). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study shows the development of gut barrier loss in children undergoing major non-abdominal surgery, which is related to preceding hypotension and mesenterial hypoperfusion. These data shed new light on the potential role of peroperative circulatory perturbation and intestinal barrier los

Do Patients in Dutch Nursing Homes Have More Pressure Ulcers Than Patients in German Nursing Homes? A Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study

Objectives: To investigate whether the incidence of pressure ulcers in nursing homes in the Netherlands and Germany differs and, if so, to identify resident-related risk factors, nursing-related interventions, and structural factors associated with pressure ulcer development in nursing home residents. Design: A prospective multicenter cohort study. Setting: Ten nursing homes in the Netherlands and 11 nursing homes in Germany (around Berlin and Brandenburg). Participants: A total of 547 newly admitted nursing home residents, of which 240 were Dutch and 307 were German. Residents had an expected length of stay of 12 weeks or longer. Measurements: Data were collected for each resident over a 12-week period and included resident characteristics (eg, demographics, medical history, Braden scale scores, nutritional factors), pressure ulcer prevention and treatment characteristics, staffing ratios and other structural nursing home characteristics, and outcome (pressure ulcer development during the study). Data were obtained by trained research assistants. Results: A significantly higher pressure ulcer incidence rate was found for the Dutch nursing homes (33.3%) compared with the German nursing homes (14.3%). Six factors that explain the difference in pressure ulcer incidence rates were identified: dementia, analgesics use, the use of transfer aids, repositioning the residents, the availability of a tissue viability nurse on the ward, and regular internal quality controls in the nursing home. Conclusion: The pressure ulcer incidence was significantly higher in Dutch nursing homes than in German nursing homes. Factors related to residents, nursing care and structure explain this difference in incidence rates. Continuous attention to pressure ulcer care is important for all health care settings and countries, but Dutch nursing homes especially should pay more attention to repositioning residents, the necessity and correct use of transfer aids, the necessity of analgesics use, the tasks of the tissue viability nurse, and the performance of regular internal quality controls