Lapse risk modelling in insurance: a Bayesian mixture approach

This paper focuses on modelling surrender time for policyholders in the context of life insurance. In this setup, a large lapse rate at the first months of a contract is often observed, with a decrease in this rate after some months. The modelling of the time to cancellation must account for this specific behaviour. Another stylised fact is that policies which are not cancelled in the study period are considered censored. To account for both censuring and heterogeneous lapse rates, this work assumes a Bayesian survival model with a mixture of regressions. The inference is based on data augmentation allowing for fast computations even for data sets of over a million clients. Moreover, scalable point estimation based on EM algorithm is also presented. An illustrative example emulates a typical behaviour for life insurance contracts and a simulated study investigates the properties of the proposed model. In particular, the observed censuring in the insurance context might be up to 50% of the data, which is very unusual for survival models in other fields such as epidemiology. This aspect is exploited in our simulated study

BayesMortalityPlus: A package in R for Bayesian graduation of mortality modelling

The BayesMortalityPlus package provides a framework for modelling and predicting mortality data. The package includes tools for the construction of life tables based on Heligman-Pollard laws, and also on dynamic linear smoothers. Flexibility is available in terms of modelling so that the response variable may be modeled as Poisson, Binomial or Gaussian. If temporal data is available, the package provides a Bayesian implementation for the well-known Lee-Carter model that allows for estimation, projection of mortality over time, and assessment of uncertainty of any linear or nonlinear function of parameters such as life expectancy. Illustrations are considered to show the capability of the proposed package to model mortality data

Randomized controlled trial of probiotics for the prevention of spontaneous preterm delivery associated with intrauterine infection: study protocol

Background: Spontaneous preterm deliveries that occur before the 34th week of gestation, and particularly before the 32nd week of gestation, have been strongly associated to intrauterine infection, ascending from vagina, and represent the largest portion of neonatal deaths and neurological problems. Bacterial vaginosis, characterized by a diminished or absent flora of lactobacilli and increased colonization of several anaerobic or facultative microorganisms, increases two times the risk of preterm delivery before the 34th week. Trials of antibiotics failed to show efficacy and effectiveness against spontaneous preterm birth related to bacterial vaginosis. Some studies indicate benefit from selected probiotics to treat genitourinary infections, including bacterial vaginosis. Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the early administration of selected probiotics to pregnant women with asymptomatic bacterial vaginosis/intermediate degree infection to reduce the occurrence of spontaneous preterm delivery and related neonatal mortality and morbidity. Methods/Design: Women attending public prenatal care services in Rio de Janeiro will be screened to select asymptomatic pregnant women, less than 20 weeks' gestation, with no indication of elective preterm delivery. Those with vaginal pH > = 4.5 and a Nugent score between 4 and 10 (intermediate degree infection or bacterial vaginosis) will be randomized to either the placebo or the intervention group, after written informed consent. Intervention consists in the use of probiotics, Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 and Lactobacillus reuteri RC-14, 2 capsules a day, each capsule containing more than one million bacilli of each strain, for 6-12 weeks, up to the 24th-25th wk of gestation. Ancillary analyses include quantification of selected cervicovaginal cytokines and genotyping of selected polymorphisms. The randomization process is stratified for history of preterm delivery and blocked. Allocation concealment was designed as well as blinding of women, caregivers and outcome evaluators. The study will be supervised by an independent monitoring committee. Outcomes under study are preterm delivery (< 34- < 32 weeks of gestation) and associated neonatal complications: early neonatal sepsis, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, periventricular leukomalacia, necrotizing enterocolitis, and prematurity-related retinopathy; definitions were adapted from those recommended by the 2002 version of the Vermont-Oxford Network. Trial registration at NIH register: NCT00303082

An overview of cancer/testis antigens expression in classical Hodgkin's lymphoma (cHL) identifies MAGE-A family and MAGE-C1 as the most frequently expressed antigens in a set of Brazilian cHL patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cancer/testis antigens are considered potential targets for immunotherapy due to their tumor-associated expression pattern. Although recent studies have demonstrated high expression of CT45 in classical Hodgkin's lymphomas (cHL), less is known about the expression pattern of other families of CTAs in cHL. We aim to evaluate the expression of MAGE-A family, MAGE-C1/CT7, MAGE-C2/CT10, NY-ESO1 and GAGE family in cHL and to correlate their expression with clinical and prognostic factors in cHL.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Tissue microarray was generated from 38 cHL archival cases from Pathology Department of Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was done using the following panel of antibodies: MAGE-A family (MA454, M3H67, 57B and 6C1), GAGE (#26), NY-ESO-1 (E978), MAGE-C1/CT7 (CT7-33) and MAGE-C2/CT10 (CT10#5).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found CTA expression in 21.1% of our cHL series. Among the tested CTAs, only MAGE-A family 7/38 (18.4%) and MAGE-C1/CT7 5/38 (13.2%) were positive in our cHL samples. We found higher CTA positivity in advanced stage (28.6%) compared to early stage (11.8%) disease, but this difference was not statistically significant. Analysis of other clinicopathological subgroups of cHL including histological subtypes, EBV status and response to treatment also did not demonstrate statistical significant differences in CTA expression.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found CTA expression in 21.1% of cHL samples using our panel. Our preliminary findings suggest that from all CTAs included in this study, MAGE-A family and MAGE-C1/CT7 are the most interesting ones to be explored in further studies.</p

A randomised controlled trial of probiotics for the prevention of spontaneous preterm delivery associated with bacterial vaginosis: preliminary results

BACKGROUND: Bacterial vaginosis increases the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery at less than 34 weeks of gestation. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the early administration of selected lactobacilli strains (probiotics) to pregnant women with asymptomatic bacterial vaginosis/intermediate-degree infections to prevent spontaneous premature delivery and associated neonatal morbidity. METHODS/DESIGN: Asymptomatic pregnant women at less than 20 weeks of gestation, with no indication of elective preterm delivery, with a vaginal pH ??? 4.5 and Nugent score > 3 were randomly assigned to the placebo or intervention group (oral administration of selected lactobacilli up to the 24th to 26th week of gestation). The randomisation was stratified for the history of premature delivery (HPD) and blocked. The allocation was concealed, and the participating health professionals and patients were blinded. The primary outcome was preterm delivery (<34 to <32 weeks), and the secondary outcomes were associated neonatal complications. RESULTS: In total, 4,204 pregnant women were screened; 320 and 324 individuals were respectively randomly assigned to the placebo and intervention groups, and 62% finished the trial. None of the randomised patients were lost to follow-up. For the non-HPD stratum, the intent-to-treat relative risks of spontaneous premature birth at < 34 and < 37 weeks' gestation were 0.33 (0.03, 3.16) and 0.49 (0.17, 1.44), respectively, and they were non-significant (ns) with p = 0.31 and 0.14. The corresponding actual treatment figures were zero and 0.32 (0.09, 1.19), which were ns with p = 0.12 and 0.06. The intent-to-treat relative risk of spontaneous premature birth at < 37 weeks of gestation for the trial as a whole, including HPD and non-HPD participants, was 0.69 (0.26, 1.78), p = 0.30 (ns). The neonatal complications under evaluation occurred in only one infant (< 34 weeks; placebo group) who presented with respiratory distress syndrome and suspected early neonatal sepsis. The recorded adverse events were minor and relatively non-specific. CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of the tested probiotics to prevent preterm delivery among women without a history of preterm delivery was not determined because the study sample was insufficient to estimate statistically significant intent-to-treat effects; additional studies are needed to evaluate this intervention among these women

Mitochondrial physiology

As the knowledge base and importance of mitochondrial physiology to evolution, health and disease expands, the necessity for harmonizing the terminology concerning mitochondrial respiratory states and rates has become increasingly apparent. The chemiosmotic theory establishes the mechanism of energy transformation and coupling in oxidative phosphorylation. The unifying concept of the protonmotive force provides the framework for developing a consistent theoretical foundation of mitochondrial physiology and bioenergetics. We follow the latest SI guidelines and those of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) on terminology in physical chemistry, extended by considerations of open systems and thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The concept-driven constructive terminology incorporates the meaning of each quantity and aligns concepts and symbols with the nomenclature of classical bioenergetics. We endeavour to provide a balanced view of mitochondrial respiratory control and a critical discussion on reporting data of mitochondrial respiration in terms of metabolic flows and fluxes. Uniform standards for evaluation of respiratory states and rates will ultimately contribute to reproducibility between laboratories and thus support the development of data repositories of mitochondrial respiratory function in species, tissues, and cells. Clarity of concept and consistency of nomenclature facilitate effective transdisciplinary communication, education, and ultimately further discovery