The payoffs to agricultural biotechnology: an assessment of the evidence

Transgenic crops are relatively new technologies being adopted rapidly in the United States and in a few other countries. The economic impacts of these technologies have, thus far, been estimated in a piecemeal fashion. The purpose of this study was to collect and characterize the economic evidence available to date, organize it, and determine if any general implications can be drawn from it. The general classes of economic impacts at the farm level are discussed. The types of studies that generate estimates of these benefits are also characterized and categorized in terms of the implications for measuring economic impacts when the set of things held constant in the type of study does not correspond to those that economic theory suggests. The evidence is presented, along with some general implications drawn from the analysis. These implications are: (1) growing transgenic cotton is likely to result in reduced pesticide use in most years and is likely to be profitable in most years in most U.S. states in the Cotton Belt, 2) Bt corn will provide a small but significant yield increase in most years across the U.S. Corn Belt, and in some years and some places the increase will be substantial, and (3) although there is some evidence of a small yield loss in the Roundup Ready soybean varieties, in most years and locations savings in pesticide costs and, possibly, tillage costs will more than offset the lost revenue from the yield discrepancy. There is not yet enough evidence to generalize even these few conclusions to other countries. More farm- level studies in more years and across more locations are required before any additional implications can be drawn. Studies that measure the non-pecuniary benefits and costs of these technologies should be undertaken, as well.Transgenic plants., Technological innovations., Agricultural research Economic aspects., Rate of return., Impact assessment,

The Effects of the Food Stamp Program on Energy Balance and Obesity

The Effects of the Food Stamp Program on Energy Balance and ObesityFood Stamp Program (FSP), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), obesity, body mass index (BMI), nutrition assistance, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Q18, H53, I12, I18, I38,

Quantifying Obesity in Economic Research: How Misleading is the Body Mass Index?

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/19/10.Obesity, percent body fat (PBF), body mass index (BMI), economic costs, measurement error, Health Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, C52, I10,

The Effects of the Food Stamp Program on Energy Balance and Obesity

The Food Stamp Program (FSP) administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is the cornerstone of the U.S. federal income and food safety net policy. The FSP has subsidized the food budget for millions of American households for over forty years, spending more than $60 billion per year in recent times. Prior research has demonstrated that women who participate in the FSP are more likely to be overweight or obese than eligible non-participants. This finding raises the concern that the additional income provided by FSP benefits induces participants to eat significantly more calories and gain weight, contributing to the U.S. obesity epidemic. Previous studies of the FSP have yielded mixed results. In this study we develop new conceptual and empirical models linking FSP participation, calorie consumption, physical activity, and weight gain, while controlling for genetic variation, weight history, and other physiological characteristics of individuals. The models enable us to test whether participants gained more weight, ate more calories, or engaged less in physical activity; or if previously omitted variables and individual health characteristics explain the higher prevalence of obesity among female FSP participants. We find a positive relationship between FSP participation and weight gain for a small subset of women. We do not find convincing evidence for the hypothesis that FSP participation causes obesity by increasing caloric consumption, decreasing physical activity, or some combination of the two. Our findings suggest that a positive association between FSP and weight exists, but we find no evidence of a direct causal link from one to the other. The association between weight and FSP likely results from confounding factors that make individuals more likely both to gain weight and to participate in the FSP.Food Stamp Program (FSP), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), obesity, body mass index (BMI), nutrition assistance, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, Q18, H53, I12, I18, I38,

Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 289 studies of returns to agricultural R&D were compiled and these provide 1821 estimates of rates of return. After removing statistical outliers and incomplete observations, across the remaining 1128 observations the estimated annual rates of return averaged 65 per cent overall — 80 per cent for research only, 80 per cent for extension only, and 47 per cent for research and extension combined. These averages reveal little meaningful information from a large body of literature, which provides rate‐of‐return estimates that are often not directly comparable. This study was aimed at trying to account for the differences. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research‐induced supply shift.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 294 studies of returns to agricultural R&D (including extension) were compiled and these studies provide 1,858 separate estimates of rates of return. This includes some extreme values, which are implausible. When the highest and lowest 2.5 percent of the rates of return were set aside, the estimated annual rates of return averaged 73 percent overall–88 percent for research only, 45 percent for research and extension, and 79 percent for extension only. But these averages reveal little meaningful information from a large and diverse body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. The purpose of this study was to go behind the averages, and try to account for the sources of differences, in a meta-analysis of the studies of returns to agricultural R&D. The results conform with the theory and prior beliefs in many ways. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.Rate of return., Agricultural research.,

Inquiry in Motion: Increasing the Science Achievement of All Students by Improving Teacher Inquiry-based Instruction

Student performance in science classrooms has continued to falter throughout the United States. Even though proficiency rates on national tests such as National Assessment of Educational Progress are higher for Caucasian students than African Americans and Hispanics, all groups lack achieving desired proficiency rates. Therefore, much work is needed in our classrooms to achieve the new more rigorous performance expectations found in the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). This five year professional development study sought to link the involvement of teachers in a sustained intervention, designed to improve the quantity and quality of guided inquiry-based instruction in middle school science classrooms, to student academic growth. Specifically we wanted to see if we could link higher quality inquiry-based instruction with the narrowing of the achievement gap between student groups. Findings show statistically significant gains for all student groups (aggregate, males, females, Caucasians, African Americans, and Hispanics) on all three science MAP tests (composite, science practices, science concepts) when compared to students of non-participating teachers

Relativistic spectroscopy of the extreme NLS1 IRAS13224-3809

The narrow line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) IRAS 13224-3809 is the most X-ray variable active galactic nucleus (AGN), exhibiting 0.3-10 keV flux changes of over an order of magnitude within an hour. We report on the results of the 1.5 Ms 2016 XMM-Newton/NuSTAR observing campaign, which revealed the presence of a 0.24c ultra-fast outflow in addition to the well-known strong relativistic reflection. We also summarise other key results of the campaign, such as the first detection of a non-linear RMS-flux relation in an accreting source, correlations between outflow absorption strength/velocity and source flux, and a disconnect between the X-ray and UV emission. Our results are consistent with a scenario where a disk wind is launched close to the black hole, imprinting absorption features into the spectrum and variability.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures, contributed talk at "Revisiting narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies and their place in the Universe" (Padova, April 2018). Accepted for publication in Proceedings of Science, PoS(NLS1-2018)03

A meta-analysis of rates of return to agricultural R & D: ex pede Herculem?

IFPRI has long argued that spending on agricultural research constitutes a sound investment in poverty reduction and agricultural and economic growth, through improvements in productivity. This argument is based partly on the reported evidence of high rates of return to agricultural research, typically believed to be in the range of 40–60 percent per year. Yet there continues to be controversy over whether these figures are to be believed, and over what they actually indicate. This study represents the first attempt to take a comprehensive look at all the available evidence on rates of return to investments in agricultural R&D since 1953, and the only attempt to do so in a formal statistical fashion. This report has compiled and documented the literature in ways that make it more accessible and more useful to other researchers and policymakers, as well as others interested in the evidence. The analysis reveals some systematic patterns and some sources of biases that make it easier to interpret the evidence and draw meaningful conclusions. (Excerpted from Summary by Per Pinstrup-Andersen)Development projects Evaluation., Agricultural research, Statistics., Agricultural economics and policies,