Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the us and uk unemployment rates

This paper analyses the long-run behaviour of the US and UK unemployment rates by testing for possibly fractional orders of integration and multiple shifts using a sample of over 100 annual observations. The results show that the orders of integration are higher than 0 in both series, which implies long memory. If we assume that the underlying disturbances are white noise, the values are higher than 0.5, i.e., nonstationary. However, if the disturbances are autocorrelated, the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0.5), implying stationarity and mean-reverting behaviour. Moreover, when multiple shifts are taken into account, unemployment is more persistent in the US than in the UK, implying the need for stronger policy action in the former to bring unemployment back to its original level

Youth Unemployment in Europe: Persistence and Macroeconomic Determinants

This paper investigates the statistical features and the macroeconomic determinants of youth unemployment in a number of European countries. First, it explores its short and long memory properties by estimating both autoregressive and fractional integration models. This type of analysis sheds light on the degree of persistence of the series, and on whether policy actions are required for highly persistent series. Second, it investigates the main determinants of youth unemployment in Europe by estimating fractional cointegration models. The evidence suggests that this series is highly persistent in all the countries examined, and that in some of them there is a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship linking it to macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation

The price effects of joining the euro: modelling the Greek experience using non-linear price-adjustment models

The widely-held hypothesis that accession to the EMU has caused a structural increase in Greek consumer prices is tested. No econometric evidence of such an effect is found. There is strong evidence of (a) multiple structural breaks in the process driving Greek equilibrium consumer prices and (b) non-linear price adjustment. The findings explain the post-EMU accession acceleration in Greek prices as normal, equilibrium-restoring behaviour. They also have important policy implications for the countries planning to join the euro in the foreseeable future.

Promoting regional economic growth in Greece by investing in public infrastructure

The role of public infrastructure capital in the development process, either at national or at regional levels, was a relatively neglected area of research until recently. The innovatory work of Aschauer, and the ensuing debate between himself, Munnell, and Holtz-Eakin regarding the role of infrastructure in the development process in the USA, has spawned much interest in the issue. The authors aim to assess the impact of public capital on Greek manufacturing industries, especially focused at the regional scale. Capital stocks were estimated for the private and public sectors and Cobb-Douglas production functions were used in the analytical framework. The results suggest that the role of private capital in economic development in recent times has been marginal, as private investment has declined, whereas the role of labour and public capital has been both positive and significant. The authors segregate public capital into 'productive' and 'social' infrastructure; they argue that when productive infrastructure makes a positive contribution to production output, the impact of social infrastructure is insignificant and/or negative in most cases. The network effects of infrastructure are also estimated

Politics in wage setting: does government colour matter?

Wages, Political regime, Time series analysis, J31, J51,

La gouvernance: une perspective néo-institutionnaliste.

SIGLEAvailable from Bibliothek des Instituts fuer Weltwirtschaft, ZBW, Duesternbrook Weg 120, D-24105 Kiel / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman