Factorial Validity of the Flight Risk Assessment Tool in General Aviation Operations

The Flight Risk Assessment Tool (FRAT) was developed and is recommended by the Federal Aviation Administration to provide a solution of proactively identifying and mitigating risk before each flight. General aviation (GA) operators are encouraged to adapt the FRAT based upon specific operational characteristics. Currently, most safety management systems-compliant GA operators have implemented various versions of FRATs with different operational purposes. However, the FRAT could be inappropriately implemented because of the dynamic operational features of GA operations. The purpose of this study is to explore insights into potential approaches to validate the FRAT that is used for flight risk assessment in routine GA operations. A FRAT from a flight school regulated under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 141 was used as a study case. In total, 1,832 sets of FRAT data were collected from flight operations between November 2016 and February 2017. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was adopted in this research. The CFA results indicated that the studied FRAT model did not provide good fit with the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.13, standardized root mean square residual (SRMR) = 0.08, comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.98, and Tucker–Lewis index (TLI) = 0.98. Based on the modification indices, the studied FRAT model was restructured by removing 11 risk items from the original 33 risk items. The new model fitted the data acceptably (RMSEA = 0.07, SRMR = 0.05, TLI = 0.76, CFI = 0.69). In addition, implications and directions for further study are discussed

Volumetric budget and grain-size fractionation of a geological sediment routing system: Eocene Escanilla Formation, south-central Pyrenees

The supply of sediment and its characteristic grain-size mix are key controls on depositional facies and stratigraphic architectures in sedimentary basins. Consequently, constraints on sediment caliber, budgets, and fluxes are a prerequisite for effective stratigraphic prediction. Here, we investigate a mid- to late Eocene (41.6–33.9 Ma) sediment routing system in the Spanish Pyrenees. We derive a full volumetric sediment budget, weighted for grain-size fractions, partitioned between terrestrial and marine depositional sectors, and we quantify sediment fluxes between depocenters. The paleo–sediment routing system was controlled by syndepositional thrust tectonics and consisted of two major feeder systems eroding the high Pyrenees that supplied a river system draining parallel to the regional tectonic strike and that ultimately exported sediment to coastal, shallow- marine and deep-marine depo centers. We show significant changes in both the volume and grain-size distribution of sediment eroded from the Pyrenean mountain belt during three different time intervals in the mid- to late Eocene, which controlled the characteristics of stratigraphy preserved in a series of wedge-top basins The time-averaged sediment discharge from source areas increased from ~250 km3/m.y. to 700 km3/m.y. over the 7.7 m.y. interval investigated. This temporal increase in sediment supply caused major westward progradation of facies belts and led to substantial sediment bypass through the terrestrial routing system to the (initially) marine Jaca Basin. The grain-size mix, measured as size fractions of gravel, sand, and fi ner than sand, also changed over the three time intervals intervals. Integration of volumetric and grain-size information from source to sink provides an estimate of the long-term grain-size distribution of the sediment supply, comprising 9% gravel, 24% sand, and 67% finer than sand. The techniques and concepts used in the Escanilla study can profitably be applied to paleo–sediment routing systems in other tectonic and climatic settings and to catchments with a range of bedrock lithology and vegetation. This will promote a better generic understanding of the dynamics of source-to sink systems and provide a powerful tool for forward stratigraphic modeling. The sediment routing system approach has the potential to contribute strongly to new models of sequence stratigraphy

The relation between accretion rate and jet power in X-ray luminous elliptical galaxies

Using Chandra X-ray observations of 9 nearby, X-ray luminous ellipticals with good optical velocity dispersion measurements, we show that a tight correlation exists between the Bondi accretion rates calculated from the X-ray data and estimated black hole masses, and the power emerging from these systems in relativistic jets. The jet powers, inferred from the energies and timescales required to inflate the cavities observed in the surrounding X-ray emitting gas, can be related to the accretion rates by a power law model. A significant fraction (2.2^{+1.0}_{-0.7} per cent, for P_jet=10^{43} erg/s) of the energy associated with the rest mass of material entering the accretion radius eventually emerges in the jets. The data also hint that this fraction may rise slightly with increasing jet power. Our results have significant implications for studies of accretion, jet formation and galaxy formation. The tight correlation between P_Bondi and P_jet suggests that the Bondi formulae provide a reasonable description of the accretion process, despite the likely presence of magnetic pressure and angular momentum in the accreting gas, and that the accretion flows are approximately stable over timescales of a few million years. Our results show that the black hole `engines' at the hearts of large elliptical galaxies and groups can feed back sufficient energy to stem cooling and star formation, leading naturally to the observed exponential cut off at the bright end of the galaxy luminosity function.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 10 pages, 4 figures. Includes an enhanced statistical analysis and some additional data. Conclusions unchange

Finite element model to simulate impact on a soft tissue simulant

A finite element model of an impact test on a soft tissue simulant, used as part of a shoulder surrogate, was developed in Ansys© LS-DYNA®. The surrogate consisted of a metal hemicylindrical core, with a diameter of 75 mm, covered with a 15 mm thick relaxed muscle simulant. The muscle simulant consisted of a 14 mm thick layer of silicone covered with 1 mm thick chamois leather to represent skin. The material properties of the silicone were obtained via quasi-static compression testing (curve fit with hyperelastic models) and compressive stress relaxation testing (curve fit with a Prony series). Outputs of the finite element models were compared against experimental data from impact tests on the shoulder surrogate at energies of 4.9, 9.8 and 14.7 J. The accuracy of the finite element models was assessed using four parameters: peak impact force, maximum deformation, impact duration and impulse. A 5-parameter Mooney-Rivlin material model combined with a 2-term Prony series was found to be suitable for modelling the soft tissue simulant of the shoulder surrogate. This model had under 10% overall mean deviation from the experimental values for the four assessment parameters across the three impact energies. Overall, the model provided a repeatable test method that can be adapted to help predict injuries to skin tissue and the performance/efficacy of personal protective equipment

Clusters of Galaxies: New Results from the CLEF Hydrodynamics Simulation

Preliminary results are presented from the CLEF hydrodynamics simulation, a large (N=2(428)^3 particles within a 200 Mpc/h comoving box) simulation of the LCDM cosmology that includes both radiative cooling and a simple model for galactic feedback. Specifically, we focus on the X-ray properties of the simulated clusters at z=0 and demonstrate a reasonable level of agreement between simulated and observed cluster scaling relations.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Advances in Space Research (proceedings of the COSPAR 2004 Assembly, Paris

Ages for illustrative field stars using gyrochronology: viability, limitations and errors

We here develop an improved way of using a rotating star as a clock, set it using the Sun, and demonstrate that it keeps time well. This technique, called gyrochronology, permits the derivation of ages for solar- and late-type main sequence stars using only their rotation periods and colors. The technique is clarified and developed here, and used to derive ages for illustrative groups of nearby, late-type field stars with measured rotation periods. We first demonstrate the reality of the interface sequence, the unifying feature of the rotational observations of cluster and field stars that makes the technique possible, and extends it beyond the proposal of Skumanich by specifying the mass dependence of rotation for these stars. We delineate which stars it cannot currently be used on. We then calibrate the age dependence using the Sun. The errors are propagated to understand their dependence on color and period. Representative age errors associated with the technique are estimated at ~15% (plus possible systematic errors) for late-F, G, K, & early-M stars. Ages derived via gyrochronology for the Mt. Wilson stars are shown to be in good agreement with chromospheric ages for all but the bluest stars, and probably superior. Gyro ages are then calculated for each of the active main sequence field stars studied by Strassmeier and collaborators where other ages are not available. These are shown to be mostly younger than 1Gyr, with a median age of 365Myr. The sample of single, late-type main sequence field stars assembled by Pizzolato and collaborators is then assessed, and shown to have gyro ages ranging from under 100Myr to several Gyr, and a median age of 1.2Gyr. Finally, we demonstrate that the individual components of the three wide binaries XiBooAB, 61CygAB, & AlphaCenAB yield substantially the same gyro ages.Comment: 58 pages, 18 color figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal; Age uncertainties slightly modified upon correcting an algebraic error in Section

Policy Insights From the EMF 32 Study on U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios

The Stanford Energy Modeling Forum exercise 32 (EMF 32) used 11 different models to assess emissions, energy, and economic outcomes from a plausible range of economy-wide carbon price policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States. Here we discuss the most policy-relevant results of the study, mindful of the strengths and weaknesses of current models. Across all models, carbon prices lead to significant reduc- tions in CO2 emissions and conventional pollutants, with the vast majority of the reductions occurring in the electricity sector. Importantly, emissions reductions do not significantly depend on the rebate or tax cut used to return revenues to the economy. Expected economic costs, as modeled by either GDP or welfare, are modest, but vary across models. These costs are offset by benefits from avoided climate damages and health benefits from reductions in conventional air pollution. Using revenues to reduce preexisting capital or labor taxes reduces costs in most models relative to lump-sum rebates, but the size of the cost reductions varies significantly. Devoting at least some revenue to household rebates can significantly reduce adverse impacts on low income households. Carbon prices at $25/ton or even lower levels cause significant shifts away from coal as an energy source with responses of other energy sources highly dependent upon technology cost assumptions. Beyond 2030, we conclude that model uncertainties are too large to make quantitative results useful for near-term policy design. We close by describing recommendations for policymakers on interacting with model results in the future

Applying spatial reasoning to topographical data with a grounded geographical ontology

Grounding an ontology upon geographical data has been pro- posed as a method of handling the vagueness in the domain more effectively. In order to do this, we require methods of reasoning about the spatial relations between the regions within the data. This stage can be computationally expensive, as we require information on the location of points in relation to each other. This paper illustrates how using knowledge about regions allows us to reduce the computation required in an efficient and easy to understand manner. Further, we show how this system can be implemented in co-ordination with segmented data to reason abou

Anthropogenic Space Weather

Anthropogenic effects on the space environment started in the late 19th century and reached their peak in the 1960s when high-altitude nuclear explosions were carried out by the USA and the Soviet Union. These explosions created artificial radiation belts near Earth that resulted in major damages to several satellites. Another, unexpected impact of the high-altitude nuclear tests was the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that can have devastating effects over a large geographic area (as large as the continental United States). Other anthropogenic impacts on the space environment include chemical release ex- periments, high-frequency wave heating of the ionosphere and the interaction of VLF waves with the radiation belts. This paper reviews the fundamental physical process behind these phenomena and discusses the observations of their impacts.Comment: 71 pages, 35 figure