Modelling biodiversity trends in the montado (wood pasture) landscapes of the Alentejo, Portugal

Abstract Context Montados are dynamic agroforestry systems of southern Portugal, with high economic and ecological values. Changes in land use and cover have important implications for landscape-level biodiversity and its conservation. Objectives Our objectives were to evaluate the biodiversity values and trends in a montado system in the Alentejo, Portugal so as to inform landscape level conservation approaches. In doing so, we aimed to develop a replicable and robust approach drawing together field observation, expert opinion, and remote sensing to produce predictions relevant to land management planning. Methods Field sampling and subsequent analysis of data on the birds, butterflies and plants in eight distinct land covers allowed the identification of two principal habitat groupings of importance: ‘montado mosaic’ and ‘shrubland’. Morphological spatial pattern analysis was performed on Landsat-derived GIS habitat layers for 1984 and 2009, generating maps and statistics for change in the different landscape functional classes. In addition, we demonstrated how the modelling of ecotones between open and closed biomes can identify the preferred hunting grounds of the threatened Iberian lynx and black vulture, flagship species whose conservation provides benefits to the area’s wider biodiversity values. Results Total and core area of montado mosaics and shrubland increased over the 25 year period, whilst the amount of habitat connectivity declined in the case of shrubland. Considerable local variation in these trends highlighted targetable areas for conservation action (e.g. through agri-environment spending). Conclusions A rapid and robust approach was demonstrated, with potentially wider utility for biodiversity assessment and planning

The cost of congenital heart-disease in children and adults: a model for multicenter assessment of price and practice variation

Objective: To assess the cost of congenital heart disease (CHD) and to assess whether practice pattern or price was more responsible for variation

A real-time Global Warming Index

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change

Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets

Carbon budgets, which define the total allowable CO2 emissions associated with a given global climate target, are a useful way of framing the climate mitigation challenge. In this paper, we review the geophysical basis for the idea of a carbon budget, showing how this concept emerges from a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions. We then discuss the difference between a “CO2-only carbon budget” associated with a given level of CO2-induced warming and an “effective carbon budget” associated with a given level of warming caused by all human emissions. We present estimates for the CO2-only and effective carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C, based on both model simulations and updated observational data. Finally, we discuss the key contributors to uncertainty in carbon budget estimates and suggest some implications of this uncertainty for decision-making. Based on the analysis presented here, we argue that while the CO2-only carbon budget is a robust upper bound on allowable emissions for a given climate target, the size of the effective carbon budget is dependent on the how quickly we are able to mitigate non-CO2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. This suggests that climate mitigation efforts could benefit from being responsive to a changing effective carbon budget over time, as well as to potential new information that could narrow uncertainty associated with the climate response to CO2 emissions

A Comparison Of Crassostrea Virginica And C. Ariakensis In Chesapeake Bay: Does Oyster Species Affect Habitat Function?

We examined the possibility that a nonnative oyster species would provide an ecologically functional equivalent of the native oyster species if introduced into the Chesapeake Bay. Habitat complexity and associated benthic communities of experimental triploid Crassostrea virginica and Crassostrea ariakensis reefs were investigated at 4 sites of varying salinity, tidal regime, water depth, predation intensity, and disease pressure in the Chesapeake Bay region (Maryland and Virginia). Four experimental treatments were established at each site: C. virginica, C. ariakensis, 50:50 of C. virginica and C. ariakensis, and shell only. Abundance, biomass, species richness, evenness, dominance, and diversity of reef-associated fauna were evaluated in relation to habitat location and oyster species. Although habitat complexity varied with location, no differences among complexity were associated with oyster species. Similarly, differences in faunal assemblages were more pronounced between sites than within sites. Our results show functional equivalency between oyster species with respect to habitat at the intertidal site and the low-salinity subtidal location. At subtidal sites of higher salinity, however, the numbers of organisms associated with C. virginica reefs per unit of oyster biomass were significantly greater than the numbers of organisms associated with C. ariakensis reefs. Multivariate analyses of data from subtidal high-salinity sites revealed unique communities associated with C. virginica treatments, whereas mixed-oyster species assemblages were functionally equivalent to monospecific C. ariakensis experimental treatments. Our study represents the first effort to quantify the potential habitat function of C. ariakensis, which has been proposed for an intentional introduction into Chesapeake Bay, and provides evidence of species-specific similarities and differences in reef-associated communities

Survival And Growth Of Triploid Crassostrea Virginica (Gmelin, 1791) And C-Ariakensis (Fujita, 1913) In Bottom Environments Of Chesapeake Bay: Implications For An Introduction

Survival and growth of triploid Crassostrea virginica and triploid C. ariakensis were investigated at four sites Surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, that varied tried in salinity, tidal regime, water depth, predation intensity and disease pressure. Four experimental treatments were established at each site: C. virginica; C. ariakensis; 50:50 of C. virginica: C. ariakensis: and shell only. Oysters were deployed at mean shell heights of 12.80 min and 13.85 mm (C. virginica and C. ariakensis, respectively), at an overall density of 347.5 oysters m(-2). Oyster survival and growth varied significantly, with site and species. Survival was significantly higher in C. virginica than C. ariakensis at the intertidal site, and significantly higher in C. ariakensis than C. virginica at the highest salinity, subtidal site. Survival did not differ significantly between species at the mid and low salinity, subticial sites. For both Species. survival differed significantly between sites, with lowest survival in both species Occurring Lit the intertidal site. Among the subtidal sites. C. virginica survival varied inversely with salinity, whereas C. ariakensis had the lowest Survival at the mid salinity site. Eight months after deployment C. ariakensis were significantly, larger than C. virginica at all sites. This difference generally persisted throughout the experiment, though the size differences between oyster species at the lowest salinity site were small (\u3c 10%). Shell heights within single-species treatments differed significantly between sites; highest growth rates were observed at the high salinity, subtidal site, whereas lowest growth rates were observed at the high salinity, intertidal site. At low and mid salinity subtidal sites, C. ariakensis shell heights were significantly greater in the single-species treatment compared with the mixed-species treatment. Perkinsus marinus infections occurred in both species at all sites, with prevalences varying between sites. In C. virginica, moderate and high intensity infections were only common at the two higher salinity sites, whereas infections in C. ariakensis were generally low, to rare. Haplosporidium nelsoni infections in C. virginica were only observed at the two higher salinity sites and prevalences were generally low. Two out of 53 C. ariakensis tested at the high salinity, subtidal site had rare H. nelsoni infections. Bonamia spp. infections were never observed. Our study supports previous laboratory findings and observations from its native range that C. ariakensis Survives poorly in intertidal habitats. In subtidal habitats, however, C. ariakensis displayed broad environmental tolerances, often exceeding native oyster Survival and growth rates. Post-introduction C. ariakensis Populations would be shaped by the survival and growth patterns described here, but also by their reproductive success, larval Survival, predator-prey interactions and prevailing disease dynamics

Analysis of enriched rare variants in JPH2-encoded junctophilin-2 among Greater Middle Eastern individuals reveals a novel homozygous variant associated with neonatal dilated cardiomyopathy.

Junctophilin-2 (JPH2) is a part of the junctional membrane complex that facilitates calcium-handling in the cardiomyocyte. Previously, missense variants in JPH2 have been linked to hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; however, pathogenic "loss of function" (LOF) variants have not been described. Family-based genetic analysis of GME individuals with cardiomyopathic disease identified an Iranian patient with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) as a carrier of a novel, homozygous single nucleotide insertion in JPH2 resulting in a stop codon (JPH2-p.E641*). A second Iranian family with consanguineous parents hosting an identical heterozygous variant had 2 children die in childhood from cardiac failure. To characterize ethnicity-dependent genetic variability in JPH2 and to identify homozygous JPH2 variants associated with cardiac disease, we identified variants in JPH2 in a worldwide control cohort (gnomAD) and 2 similar cohorts from the Greater Middle East (GME Variome, Iranome). These were compared against ethnicity-matched clinical whole exome sequencing (WES) referral tests and a case cohort of individuals with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) based on comprehensive review of the literature. Worldwide, 1.45% of healthy individuals hosted a rare JPH2 variant with a significantly higher proportion among GME individuals (4.45%); LOF variants were rare overall (0.04%) yet were most prevalent in GME (0.21%). The increased prevalence of LOF variants in GME individuals was corroborated among region-specific, clinical WES cohorts. In conclusion, we report ethnic-specific differences in JPH2 rare variants, with GME individuals being at higher risk of hosting homozygous LOF variants. This conclusion is supported by the identification of a novel JPH2 LOF variant confirmed by segregation analysis resulting in autosomal recessive pediatric DCM due to presumptive JPH2 truncation

The importance of localizing pulmonary veins in atrial septal defect closure!

An 8-year-old girl was admitted for a simple closure of echocardiographically diagnosed Atrial Septal Defect (ASD). During the operation the right pulmonary veins orifices were not detected in the left atrium and attempt to localize them led to the discovery of three additional anomalies, namely Interrupted Inferior Vena Cava (IIVC), Scimitar syndrome, and systemic arterial supply of the lung. Postoperatively these finding were confirmed by CT angiography. This case report emphasizes the need for adequate preoperative diagnosis and presents a very rare constellation of four congenital anomalies that to the best of our knowledge is not reported before

Optimality of mutation and selection in germinal centers

The population dynamics theory of B cells in a typical germinal center could play an important role in revealing how affinity maturation is achieved. However, the existing models encountered some conflicts with experiments. To resolve these conflicts, we present a coarse-grained model to calculate the B cell population development in affinity maturation, which allows a comprehensive analysis of its parameter space to look for optimal values of mutation rate, selection strength, and initial antibody-antigen binding level that maximize the affinity improvement. With these optimized parameters, the model is compatible with the experimental observations such as the ~100-fold affinity improvements, the number of mutations, the hypermutation rate, and the "all or none" phenomenon. Moreover, we study the reasons behind the optimal parameters. The optimal mutation rate, in agreement with the hypermutation rate in vivo, results from a tradeoff between accumulating enough beneficial mutations and avoiding too many deleterious or lethal mutations. The optimal selection strength evolves as a balance between the need for affinity improvement and the requirement to pass the population bottleneck. These findings point to the conclusion that germinal centers have been optimized by evolution to generate strong affinity antibodies effectively and rapidly. In addition, we study the enhancement of affinity improvement due to B cell migration between germinal centers. These results could enhance our understandings to the functions of germinal centers.Comment: 5 figures in main text, and 4 figures in Supplementary Informatio