Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of Ixodes ricinus, vector of Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis virus

Abstract Background: Ixodes ricinus is a hard tick vector species that transmits many diseases in Europe and North Africa, including borreliosis (Lyme disease) and tick borne encephalitis (TBE). Climate change has altered distributions and transmission patterns of many vectors and vector-borne diseases, but such effects on I. ricinus have received little attention. In this study, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under both current and future climate conditions to understand possible changes in pathogen transmission patterns in coming decades. Method: We integrated occurrence datasets and relevant environmental variables to generate ecological niche models to estimate the current distribution of I. ricinus with respect to climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Future projections were based on 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), for 2050 and 2070. Result: The present potential distribution of the species showed broad agreement with future distributional predictions, including most of western and central Europe, a narrow zone in eastern and northern Europe, and a narrow fringe of North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and Eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus could emerge in presently non-endemic areas, posing increasing risks to human health in these areas. Keywords: Climate change, ecological niche modeling, Maxent, future projection, Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis, Europe, North Africa, Middle East

Likely Geographic Distributional Shifts among Medically Important Tick Species and Tick-Associated Diseases under Climate Change in North America: A Review

A grant from the One-University Open Access Fund at the University of Kansas was used to defray the author's publication fees in this Open Access journal. The Open Access Fund, administered by librarians from the KU, KU Law, and KUMC libraries, is made possible by contributions from the offices of KU Provost, KU Vice Chancellor for Research & Graduate Studies, and KUMC Vice Chancellor for Research. For more information about the Open Access Fund, please see http://library.kumc.edu/authors-fund.xml.Ticks rank high among arthropod vectors in terms of numbers of infectious agents that they transmit to humans, including Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Colorado tick fever, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, tularemia, and human granulocytic anaplasmosis. Increasing temperature is suspected to affect tick biting rates and pathogen developmental rates, thereby potentially increasing risk for disease incidence. Tick distributions respond to climate change, but how their geographic ranges will shift in future decades and how those shifts may translate into changes in disease incidence remain unclear. In this study, we have assembled correlative ecological niche models for eight tick species of medical or veterinary importance in North America (Ixodes scapularis, I. pacificus, I. cookei, Dermacentor variabilis, D. andersoni, Amblyomma americanum, A. maculatum, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus), assessing the distributional potential of each under both present and future climatic conditions. Our goal was to assess whether and how species’ distributions will likely shift in coming decades in response to climate change. We interpret these patterns in terms of likely implications for tick-associated diseases in North America

Geographic potential of the world’s largest hornet, Vespa mandarinia Smith (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), worldwide and particularly in North America

The Asian giant hornet (AGH, Vespa mandarinia) is the world’s largest hornet, occurring naturally in the Indomalayan region, where it is a voracious predator of pollinating insects including honey bees. In September 2019, a nest of Asian giant hornets was detected outside of Vancouver, British Columbia; multiple individuals were detected in British Columbia and Washington state in 2020; and another nest was found and eradicated in Washington state in November 2020, indicating that the AGH may have successfully wintered in North America. Because hornets tend to spread rapidly and become pests, reliable estimates of the potential invasive range of V. mandarinia in North America are needed to assess likely human and economic impacts, and to guide future eradication attempts. Here, we assess climatic suitability for AGH in North America, and suggest that, without control, this species could establish populations across the Pacific Northwest and much of eastern North America. Predicted suitable areas for AGH in North America overlap broadly with areas where honey production is highest, as well as with species-rich areas for native bumble bees and stingless bees of the genus Melipona in Mexico, highlighting the economic and environmental necessity of controlling this nascent invasion

Effects of occurrence data density on conservation prioritization strategies

Place-prioritization analyses are a means by which researchers can translate information on the geographic distributions of species into quantitative prioritizations of areas for biodiversity conservation action. Although several robust algorithms are now available to support this sort of analysis, their vulnerability to biases deriving from incomplete and imbalanced distributional information is not well understood. In this contribution, we took a well-sampled group (i.e., Icteridae or New World blackbirds) in an intensively sampled region (the contiguous continental United States), and developed a set of pseudo-experimental manipulations of occurrence data density—in effect, we created situations in which data density was reduced 10- or 100-fold, and situations in which data density varied 100-fold from region to region. The effects were marked: priority areas for conservation shifted, appeared, and disappeared as a function of our manipulations. That is, differences in density of data can affect the position and complexity of areas of high conservation priority that are identified using distributional areas of species derived from ecological niche modeling. The effects of data density on prioritizations become more diffuse when considerations of existing protected areas and costs related to human intervention are taken into account, but changes are still manifested. Appropriate considerations of sampling density when constructing ecological niche models to identify distributional areas of species are key to preventing artifactual biases from entering into and affecting results of analyses of conservation priority

Climate change influences on the geographic distributional potential of the spotted fever vectors Amblyomma maculatum and Dermacentor andersoni

Amblyomma maculatum (Gulf Coast tick), and Dermacentor andersoni (Rocky Mountain wood tick) are two North American ticks that transmit spotted fevers associated Rickettsia. Amblyomma maculatum transmits Rickettsia parkeri and Francisella tularensis, while D. andersoni transmits R. rickettsii, Anaplasma marginale, Coltivirus (Colorado tick fever virus), and F. tularensis. Increases in temperature causes mild winters and more extreme dry periods during summers, which will affect tick populations in unknown ways. Here, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential geographic distributions of these two medically important vector species in North America under current condition and then transfer those models to the future under different future climate scenarios with special interest in highlighting new potential expansion areas. Current model predictions for A. maculatum showed suitable areas across the southern and Midwest United States, and east coast, western and southern Mexico. For D. andersoni, our models showed broad suitable areas across northwestern United States. New potential for range expansions was anticipated for both tick species northward in response to climate change, extending across the Midwest and New England for A. maculatum, and still farther north into Canada for D. andersoni

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades.We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070.The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions

Current and future potential distribution of <i>Ixodes ricinus</i> based on present-day and future climatic conditions.

<p>Left-hand maps show potential distributions whereas right-hand maps indicate the uncertainty.</p

Summary of general circulation models (GCMs) explored in our analysis.

<p>Summary of general circulation models (GCMs) explored in our analysis.</p

Occurrence records of <i>Ixodes ricinus</i> derived from various sources.

<p>Blue crosses indicate the original set of occurrence records; yellow circles are occurrence records retained after filtering the data.</p