Improved personalized survival prediction of patients with diffuse large B-cell Lymphoma using gene expression profiling

BACKGROUND: Thirty to forty percent of patients with Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) have an adverse clinical evolution. The increased understanding of DLBCL biology has shed light on the clinical evolution of this pathology, leading to the discovery of prognostic factors based on gene expression data, genomic rearrangements and mutational subgroups. Nevertheless, additional efforts are needed in order to enable survival predictions at the patient level. In this study we investigated new machine learning-based models of survival using transcriptomic and clinical data. METHODS: Gene expression profiling (GEP) of in 2 different publicly available retrospective DLBCL cohorts were analyzed. Cox regression and unsupervised clustering were performed in order to identify probes associated with overall survival on the largest cohort. Random forests were created to model survival using combinations of GEP data, COO classification and clinical information. Cross-validation was used to compare model results in the training set, and Harrel's concordance index (c-index) was used to assess model's predictability. Results were validated in an independent test set. RESULTS: Two hundred thirty-three and sixty-four patients were included in the training and test set, respectively. Initially we derived and validated a 4-gene expression clusterization that was independently associated with lower survival in 20% of patients. This pattern included the following genes: TNFRSF9, BIRC3, BCL2L1 and G3BP2. Thereafter, we applied machine-learning models to predict survival. A set of 102 genes was highly predictive of disease outcome, outperforming available clinical information and COO classification. The final best model integrated clinical information, COO classification, 4-gene-based clusterization and the expression levels of 50 individual genes (training set c-index, 0.8404, test set c-index, 0.7942). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that DLBCL survival models based on the application of machine learning algorithms to gene expression and clinical data can largely outperform other important prognostic variables such as disease stage and COO. Head-to-head comparisons with other risk stratification models are needed to compare its usefulness

Detection of new drivers of frequent B-cell lymphoid neoplasms using an integrated analysis of whole genomes.

B-cell lymphoproliferative disorders exhibit a diverse spectrum of diagnostic entities with heterogeneous behaviour. Multiple efforts have focused on the determination of the genomic drivers of B-cell lymphoma subtypes. In the meantime, the aggregation of diverse tumors in pan-cancer genomic studies has become a useful tool to detect new driver genes, while enabling the comparison of mutational patterns across tumors. Here we present an integrated analysis of 354 B-cell lymphoid disorders. 112 recurrently mutated genes were discovered, of which KMT2D, CREBBP, IGLL5 and BCL2 were the most frequent, and 31 genes were putative new drivers. Mutations in CREBBP, TNFRSF14 and KMT2D predominated in follicular lymphoma, whereas those in BTG2, HTA-A and PIM1 were more frequent in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Additionally, we discovered 31 significantly mutated protein networks, reinforcing the role of genes such as CREBBP, EEF1A1, STAT6, GNA13 and TP53, but also pointing towards a myriad of infrequent players in lymphomagenesis. Finally, we report aberrant expression of oncogenes and tumor suppressors associated with novel noncoding mutations (DTX1 and S1PR2), and new recurrent copy number aberrations affecting immune check-point regulators (CD83, PVR) and B-cell specific genes (TNFRSF13C). Our analysis expands the number of mutational drivers of B-cell lymphoid neoplasms, and identifies several differential somatic events between disease subtypes