Host-pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions

Temporal patterns of vampire bat rabies and host connectivity in Belize

In the Neotropics, vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus ) are the main reservoir host for rabies, a highly fatal encephalitis caused by viruses in the genus Lyssavirus . Although patterns of rabies virus exposure and infection have been well studied for vampire bats in South America and Mexico, exploring the ecology of vampire bat rabies in other regions is crucial for predicting risks to livestock and humans. In Belize, rabies outbreaks in livestock have increased in recent years, underscoring the need for systematic data on viral dynamics in vampire bats. In this study, we examine the first three years of a longitudinal study on the ecology of vampire bat rabies in northern Belize. Rabies seroprevalence in bats was high across years (29%–80%), suggesting active and endemic virus circulation. Across two locations, the seroprevalence time series per site were inversely related and out of phase by at least a year. Microsatellite data demonstrated historic panmixia of vampire bats, and mark–recapture detected rare but contemporary inter‐site dispersal. This degree of movement could facilitate spatial spread of rabies virus but is likely insufficient to synchronize infection dynamics, which offers one explanation for the observed phase lag in seroprevalence. More broadly, our analyses suggest frequent transmission of rabies virus within and among vampire bat roosts in northern Belize and highlight the need for future spatiotemporal, phylogenetic and ecological studies of vampire bat rabies in Central America

Characterizing and evaluating the zoonotic potential of novel viruses discovered in vampire bats

The contemporary surge in metagenomic sequencing has transformed knowledge of viral diversity in wildlife. However, evaluating which newly discovered viruses pose sufficient risk of infecting humans to merit detailed laboratory characterization and surveillance remains largely speculative. Machine learning algorithms have been developed to address this imbalance by ranking the relative likelihood of human infection based on viral genome sequences, but are not yet routinely applied to viruses at the time of their discovery. Here, we characterized viral genomes detected through metagenomic sequencing of feces and saliva from common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) and used these data as a case study in evaluating zoonotic potential using molecular sequencing data. Of 58 detected viral families, including 17 which infect mammals, the only known zoonosis detected was rabies virus; however, additional genomes were detected from the families Hepeviridae, Coronaviridae, Reoviridae, Astroviridae and Picornaviridae, all of which contain human-infecting species. In phylogenetic analyses, novel vampire bat viruses most frequently grouped with other bat viruses that are not currently known to infect humans. In agreement, machine learning models built from only phylogenetic information ranked all novel viruses similarly, yielding little insight into zoonotic potential. In contrast, genome composition-based machine learning models estimated different levels of zoonotic potential, even for closely related viruses, categorizing one out of four detected hepeviruses and two out of three picornaviruses as having high priority for further research. We highlight the value of evaluating zoonotic potential beyond ad hoc consideration of phylogeny and provide surveillance recommendations for novel viruses in a wildlife host which has frequent contact with humans and domestic animals

Predicting the presence and titre of rabies virus‐neutralizing antibodies from low‐volume serum samples in low‐containment facilities

Serology is a core component of the surveillance and management of viral zoonoses. Virus neutralization tests are a gold standard serological diagnostic, but requirements for large volumes of serum and high biosafety containment can limit widespread use. Here, focusing on Rabies lyssavirus, a globally important zoonosis, we developed a pseudotype micro‐neutralization rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test (pmRFFIT) that overcomes these limitations. Specifically, we adapted an existing micro‐neutralization test to use a green fluorescent protein‐tagged murine leukaemia virus pseudotype in lieu of pathogenic rabies virus, reducing the need for specialized reagents for antigen detection and enabling use in low‐containment laboratories. We further used statistical models to generate rapid, quantitative predictions of the probability and titre of rabies virus‐neutralizing antibodies from microscopic imaging of neutralization outcomes. Using 47 serum samples from domestic dogs with neutralizing antibody titres estimated using the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization test (FAVN), pmRFFIT showed moderate sensitivity (78.79%) and high specificity (84.62%). Despite small conflicts, titre predictions were correlated across tests repeated on different dates both for dog samples (r = 0.93) and in a second data set of sera from wild common vampire bats (r = 0.72, N = 41), indicating repeatability. Our test uses a starting volume of 3.5 µl of serum, estimates titres from a single dilution of serum rather than requiring multiple dilutions and end point titration, and may be adapted to target neutralizing antibodies against alternative lyssavirus species. The pmRFFIT enables high‐throughput detection of rabies virus‐neutralizing antibodies in low‐biocontainment settings and is suited to studies in wild or captive animals where large serum volumes cannot be obtained

Identifying Hendra Virus Diversity in Pteropid Bats

Hendra virus (HeV) causes a zoonotic disease with high mortality that is transmitted to humans from bats of the genus Pteropus (flying foxes) via an intermediary equine host. Factors promoting spillover from bats to horses are uncertain at this time, but plausibly encompass host and/or agent and/or environmental factors. There is a lack of HeV sequence information derived from the natural bat host, as previously sequences have only been obtained from horses or humans following spillover events. In order to obtain an insight into possible variants of HeV circulating in flying foxes, collection of urine was undertaken in multiple flying fox roosts in Queensland, Australia. HeV was found to be geographically widespread in flying foxes with a number of HeV variants circulating at the one time at multiple locations, while at times the same variant was found circulating at disparate locations. Sequence diversity within variants allowed differentiation on the basis of nucleotide changes, and hypervariable regions in the genome were identified that could be used to differentiate circulating variants. Further, during the study, HeV was isolated from the urine of flying foxes on four occasions from three different locations. The data indicates that spillover events do not correlate with particular HeV isolates, suggesting that host and/or environmental factors are the primary determinants of bat-horse spillover. Thus future spillover events are likely to occur, and there is an on-going need for effective risk management strategies for both human and animal health

Diversification of mammalian deltaviruses by host shifting

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is an unusual RNA agent that replicates using host machinery but exploits hepatitis B virus (HBV) to mobilize its spread within and between hosts. In doing so, HDV enhances the virulence of HBV. How this seemingly improbable hyperparasitic lifestyle emerged is unknown, but it underpins the likelihood that HDV and related deltaviruses may alter other host–virus interactions. Here, we show that deltaviruses diversify by transmitting between mammalian species. Among 96,695 RNA sequence datasets, deltaviruses infected bats, rodents, and an artiodactyl from the Americas but were absent from geographically overrepresented Old World representatives of each mammalian order, suggesting a relatively recent diversification within the Americas. Consistent with diversification by host shifting, both bat and rodent-infecting deltaviruses were paraphyletic, and coevolutionary modeling rejected cospeciation with mammalian hosts. In addition, a 2-y field study showed common vampire bats in Peru were infected by two divergent deltaviruses, indicating multiple introductions to a single host species. One vampire bat-associated deltavirus was detected in the saliva of up to 35% of individuals, formed phylogeographically compartmentalized clades, and infected a sympatric bat, illustrating horizontal transmission within and between species on ecological timescales. Consistent absence of HBV-like viruses in two deltavirus-infected bat species indicated acquisitions of novel viral associations during the divergence of bat and human-infecting deltaviruses. Our analyses support an American zoonotic origin of HDV and reveal prospects for future cross-species emergence of deltaviruses. Given their peculiar life history, deltavirus host shifts will have different constraints and disease outcomes compared to ordinary animal pathogens

Ecological determinants of rabies virus dynamics in vampire bats and spillover to livestock

The pathogen transmission dynamics in bat reservoirs underpin efforts to reduce risks human-health and bat conservation but are notoriously challenging to resolve. For vampire-bat rabies, the geographic scale of enzootic cycles, whether environmental factors modulate baseline risk, and how within-host processes affect population-level dynamics remain unresolved. We studied patterns of rabies exposure using an 11-year, spatially-replicated sero-survey of 3,709 Peruvian vampire bats and co-occurring outbreaks in livestock. Seroprevalence was correlated among nearby sites but fluctuated asynchronously at larger distances. A generalized additive mixed model confirmed spatially-compartmentalized transmission cycles, but no effects of bat demography or environmental context on seroprevalence. Among 427 recaptured bats, we observed long-term survival following rabies exposure and antibody waning, supporting hypotheses that immunological mechanisms influence viral maintenance. Finally, seroprevalence in bats was only weakly correlated with outbreaks in livestock, reinforcing the challenge of spillover prediction even with extensive data. Together our results suggest that rabies maintenance requires transmission among multiple, nearby bat colonies which may be facilitated by waning of protective immunity. However, the likelihood of incursions and dynamics of transmission within bat colonies appear largely independent of bat ecology. The implications of these results for spillover anticipation and controlling transmission at the source are discussed

Hendra Virus Infection Dynamics in Australian Fruit Bats

Hendra virus is a recently emerged zoonotic agent in Australia. Since first described in 1994, the virus has spilled from its wildlife reservoir (pteropid fruit bats, or ‘flying foxes’) on multiple occasions causing equine and human fatalities. We undertook a three-year longitudinal study to detect virus in the urine of free-living flying foxes (a putative route of excretion) to investigate Hendra virus infection dynamics. Pooled urine samples collected off plastic sheets placed beneath roosting flying foxes were screened for Hendra virus genome by quantitative RT-PCR, using a set of primers and probe derived from the matrix protein gene. A total of 1672 pooled urine samples from 67 sampling events was collected and tested between 1 July 2008 and 30 June 2011, with 25% of sampling events and 2.5% of urine samples yielding detections. The proportion of positive samples was statistically associated with year and location. The findings indicate that Hendra virus excretion occurs periodically rather than continuously, and in geographically disparate flying fox populations in the state of Queensland. The lack of any detection in the Northern Territory suggests prevalence may vary across the range of flying foxes in Australia. Finally, our findings suggest that flying foxes can excrete virus at any time of year, and that the apparent seasonal clustering of Hendra virus incidents in horses and associated humans (70% have occurred June to October) reflects factors other than the presence of virus. Identification of these factors will strengthen risk minimization strategies for horses and ultimately humans

Epidemiology and biology of a herpesvirus in rabies endemic vampire bat populations

Rabies is a viral zoonosis transmitted by vampire bats across Latin America. Substantial public health and agricultural burdens remain, despite decades of bats culls and livestock vaccinations. Virally vectored vaccines that spread autonomously through bat populations are a theoretically appealing solution to managing rabies in its reservoir host. We investigate the biological and epidemiological suitability of a vampire bat betaherpesvirus (DrBHV) to act as a vaccine vector. In 25 sites across Peru with serological and/or molecular evidence of rabies circulation, DrBHV infects 80–100% of bats, suggesting potential for high population-level vaccine coverage. Phylogenetic analysis reveals host specificity within neotropical bats, limiting risks to non-target species. Finally, deep sequencing illustrates DrBHV super-infections in individual bats, implying that DrBHV-vectored vaccines might invade despite the highly prevalent wild-type virus. These results indicate DrBHV as a promising candidate vector for a transmissible rabies vaccine, and provide a framework to discover and evaluate candidate viral vectors for vaccines against bat-borne zoonoses