SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for big-picture understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan\u27s eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system\u27s problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake\u27s recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan\u27s TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement

Impact of Coastal Erosion and Sedimentation along the Northern Coast of Sinai Peninsula

Coastal engineering activities during the past five decades have resulted in considerable shoreline change along the northern coast of Sinai Peninsula. In the west of El Arish Power Plant, sediment accretion has reached the tip of the breakwater of the cooling water intake basin necessitating extensive dredging inside the basin. In the east of El Arish Harbor, the shoreline is continuously retreating. Previous activities to mitigate the erosion have not succeeded. For example, the groin field in the east of the El Arish Harbor has transferred the problem to the neighboring beaches farther downcoast. In this study predominant coastal processes affecting the erosion of the Sinai northern coastline were investigated. Wave-induced longshore currents were found to be responsible for transporting the littoral drift along the coastline. Longshore sediment transport, from Port Said to Ashqelon, was quantified and the general patterns of erosion-accretion were determined by looking upon the gradients between transport rates along the coast. Particular emphasis was placed on shoreline change due to perturbations introduced by infrastructure sited at the coastline near El Arish. The shoreline change at El Arish Power Plant and Harbor were modeled using the coastal evolution model GENESIS. Having understood the coastal processes driving the shoreline change at these two locations, appropriate remedial measures were proposed to mitigate the problem. In this regard, a combination of hard and soft coastal engineering methods are presented to alleviate the dredging problem at the power plant while sand-bypassing/beach-nourishment is suggested as an effective sustainable solution to the erosion problem in the east of El Arish Harbor

Value of Water - Economic and Full Value - Michigan Tech University

Lecture module on Economic and Full Value of water developed by Michigan Tech University (slides). Lecture draws on two readings: Brett Walton. (2010). The Price of Water: A Comparison of Water Rates, Usage in 30 U.S. Cities. April 26. Circle of Blue WaterNews. Available at: https://www.circleofblue.org/2010/world/the-price-of-water-a-comparison-of-water-rates-usage-in-30-u-s-cities/. Peter Rogers, Radhika de Silva, Ramesh Bhatia. (2002) Water is an economic good: How to use prices to promote equity, efficiency, and sustainability, Water Policy, Volume 4, Issue 1, 2002, Pages 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1366-7017(02)00004-1. Find a companion Jeopardy game -- test your knowledge about the readings, prices, economic values, full values, and more -- under the Games heading

Lattice thermal conductivity and mechanical properties of the single-layer penta-NiN2 explored by a deep-learning interatomic potential

Penta-NiN2, a novel pentagonal 2D sheet with potential nanoelectronic applications, is investigated in terms of its lattice thermal conductivity, stability, and mechanical behavior. A deep learning interatomic potential (DLP) is firstly generated from ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) data and then utilized for classical molecular dynamics simulations. The DLP's accuracy is verified, showing strong agreement with AIMD results. The dependence of thermal conductivity on size, temperature, and tensile strain, reveals important insights into the material's thermal properties. Additionally, the mechanical response of penta-NiN2 under uniaxial loading is examined, yielding a Young's modulus of approximately 368 GPa. The influence of vacancy defects on mechanical properties is analyzed, demonstrating significant reduction in modulus, fracture stress, and ultimate strength. This study also investigates the influence of strain on phonon dispersion relations and phonon group velocity in penta-NiN2, shedding light on how alterations in the atomic lattice affect the phonon dynamics and, consequently, impact the thermal conductivity. This investigation showcases the ability of deep learning based interatomic potentials in studying the properties of 2D Penta-NiN2

Jeopardy - Water price, ecnomic cost, economic value

It\u27s Jeopardy! Test your knowledge of water prices, water cost, it\u27s economic value, full value, and more. Information developed from a companion lecture and two readings: Brett Walton. (2010). The Price of Water: A Comparison of Water Rates, Usage in 30 U.S. Cities. April 26. Circle of Blue WaterNews. Available at: https://www.circleofblue.org/2010/world/the-price-of-water-a-comparison-of-water-rates-usage-in-30-u-s-cities/. Peter Rogers, Radhika de Silva, Ramesh Bhatia. (2002) Water is an economic good: How to use prices to promote equity, efficiency, and sustainability, Water Policy, Volume 4, Issue 1, 2002, Pages 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1366-7017(02)00004-1. How many Jeopardy points can you earn

Avoiding Water Bankruptcy in the Drought-Troubled Southwest: What the US and Iran Can Learn from Each Other

The 2021 water year ends on Sept. 30, and it was another hot, dry year in the western U.S., with almost the entire region in drought. Reservoirs vital for farms, communities and hydropower have fallen to dangerous lows. The biggest blow came in August, when the U.S. government issued its first ever water shortage declaration for the Colorado River, triggering water use restrictions. In response, farmers and cities across the Southwest are now finding new, often unsustainable ways to meet their future water needs. Las Vegas opened a lower-elevation tunnel to Lake Mead, a Colorado River reservoir where water levels reached unprecedented lows at 35% of capacity. Farmers are ratcheting up groundwater pumping. Officials in Arizona, which will lose nearly one-fifth of its river water allotment under the new restrictions, even floated the idea of piping water hundreds of miles from the Mississippi River

Lattice thermal conductivity and elastic modulus of XN4 (X=Be, Mg and Pt) 2D materials using machine learning interatomic potentials

The newly synthesized BeN4 monolayer has introduced a novel group of 2D materials called nitrogen-rich 2D materials. In the present study, the anisotropic mechanical and thermal properties of three members of this group, BeN4, MgN4, and PtN4, are investigated. To this end, a machine learning-based interatomic potential (MLIP) is developed on the basis of the moment tensor potential (MTP) method and utilized in classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Mechanical properties are calculated by extracting the stress-strain curve and thermal properties by non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) method. Acquired results show the anisotropic elastic modulus and lattice thermal conductivity of these materials. Generally, elastic modulus and thermal conductivity in the armchair direction are higher than in the zigzag direction. Also, the elastic anisotropy is almost constant at every temperature for BeN4 and MgN4, while for PtN4, this parameter is decreased by increasing the temperature. The findings of this research are not only evidence of the application of machine learning in MD simulations, but also provide information on the basic anisotropic mechanical and thermal properties of these newly discovered 2D nanomaterials

World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security

The imbalance between energy resource availability, demand, and production capacity, coupled with inherent economic and environmental uncertainties make strategic energy resources planning, management, and decision-making a challenging process. In this paper, a descriptive approach has been taken to synthesize the world\u27s energy portfolio and the global energy balance outlook in order to provide insights into the role of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in maintaining stability and balance of the world\u27s energy market. This synthesis illustrates that in the absence of stringent policies, i.e., if historical trends of the global energy production and consumption hold into the future, it is unlikely that non-conventional liquid fuels and renewable energy sources will play a dominant role in meeting global energy demand by 2030. This should be a source of major global concern as the world may be unprepared for an ultimate shift to other energy sources when the imminent peak oil production is reached. OPEC\u27s potential to impact the supply and price of oil could enable this organization to act as a facilitator or a barrier for energy transition policies, and to play a key role in the global energy security through cooperative or non-cooperative strategies. It is argued that, as the global energy portfolio becomes more balanced in the long run, OPEC may change its typical high oil price strategies to drive the market prices to lower equilibria, making alternative energy sources less competitive. Alternatively, OPEC can contribute to a cooperative portfolio management approach to help mitigate the gradually emerging energy crisis and global warming, facilitating a less turbulent energy transition path while there is time

Ecological-economic assessment of the effects of freshwater flow in the Florida Everglades on recreational fisheries

This research develops an integrated methodology to determine the economic value to anglers of recreational fishery ecosystem services in Everglades National Park that could result from different water management scenarios. The study first used bio-hydrological models to link managed freshwater inflows to indicators of fishery productivity and ecosystem health, then link those models to anglers\u27 willingness-to-pay for various attributes of the recreational fishing experience and monthly fishing effort. This approach allowed us to estimate the foregone economic benefits of failing to meet monthly freshwater delivery targets. The study found that the managed freshwater delivery to the Park had declined substantially over the years and had fallen short of management targets. This shortage in the flow resulted in the decline of biological productivity of recreational fisheries in downstream coastal areas. This decline had in turn contributed to reductions in the overall economic value of recreational ecosystem services enjoyed by anglers. The study estimated the annual value of lost recreational services at $68.81million. The losses were greater in the months of dry season when the water shortage was higher and the number of anglers fishing also was higher than the levels in wet season. The study also developed conservative estimates of implicit price of water for recreation, which ranged from$11.88 per AF in November to $112.11 per AF in April. The annual average price was$41.54 per AF. Linking anglers\u27 recreational preference directly to a decision variable such as water delivery is a powerful and effective way to make management decision

Addressing drainage issues in the urban landscape

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