Ensuring contraceptive security through effective supply chains

Establishing and maintaining well-functioning supply chains that meet the needs of public and private sectors, as well as health professionals at all levels in family planning programs, will play a critical role in reducing unmet need for modern contraception in low and middle income countries. This evidence brief identifies two evidence-based solutions to address the challenges faced by these countries: increasing the visibility of product flows and user demand, and leveraging the expertise of the private and public sector to ensure a total market approach to supply-chain management. Strengthening the capacity of public and private-sector family planning providers and managers creates opportunities for their closer collaboration and ensures contraceptive security

Bugs Buy Steady Releases from Hydropower Producers to Encourage More Synergistic Reservoir Management

Hydropower generated from dams has significant economic value, however, that value is achieved at the cost of native ecosystem devastation. Here, we have estimated loss in hydropower revenue due to inclusion of the steady low flow days –Bug Flow Experiments. We developed a linear optimization model and constraint method that restrict the number of steady low flow days while maximizes the hydropower revenue generation. The results suggested that increase in release volume will benefit both the objectives (win-win scenario), energy price differential between on-and off-peak periods controls the position and shape of tradeoff curves, and offset release does not have impact on the tradeoffs. Monthly results of the model helped us devise a program where hydropower producers are compensated for the steady low flow days. The program allocates funds and provides opportunities for ecosystem managers to pay hydropower producers revenue loss from the steady low flow days (escape from the win-lose scenario). In other words, the ecosystem managers are empowered to make decision about when and how many steady low flows days to buy against compensating the hydropower producers. This study is an initial effort and next steps would include a) improve results by adding information from the GTMax SL model used by the Western Area Power Authority and b) engagement with more organizations: National Park Service, Bureau of Reclamation, and Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management program

Ensuring adequate financing of family planning commodities and services

Increasing efficient and effective investment in family planning (FP) through the public and private sectors is key to meeting the FP2020 goal of helping 120 million additional women become modern contraceptive users. This policy brief identifies several policy and program considerations to ensure adequate financing of family planning commodities and services: sustained fundraising, pooling, and strategic purchasing; reaching new users and improving continuation rates among current users; and conducting further research on family planning quality performance metrics to test their correlation with higher continuation rates. Future efforts to reduce unmet need for FP must consider consumers’ out-of-pocket costs, programmatic cost-effectiveness, and sources of funding

Community-based financing of family planning in developing countries: A systematic review

In this systematic review, we gather evidence on community financing schemes and insurance programs for family planning in developing countries, and we assess the impact of these programs on primary outcomes related to contraceptive use. To identify and evaluate the research findings, we adopt a four‐stage review process that employs a weight‐of‐evidence and risk‐of‐bias analytic approach. Out of 19,138 references that were identified, only four studies were included in our final analysis, and only one study was determined to be of high quality. In the four studies, the evidence on the impact of community‐based financing on family planning and fertility outcomes is inconclusive. These limited and mixed findings suggest that either: 1) more high‐quality evidence on community‐based financing for family planning is needed before any conclusions can be made; or 2) community‐based financing for family planning may, in fact, have little or no effect on family planning outcomes.Funding from the UNDP-UNFPA-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP), a cosponsored program executed by the World Health Organization, is gratefully acknowledged. The authors thank members of the WHO technical working group on financing family planning for their valuable comments. In addition, the authors thank Iqbal Shah for his support throughout the review process and for his technical guidance on this manuscript. (UNDP-UNFPA-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP); World Health Organization)Published versio

Critique of the functional assignment architecture of Punjab’s local governance legislation of 2013 & 2019

In 2013 and 2019, the local government legislation of the province of Punjab in Pakistan saw two rounds of major changes – each of which led to a new local government Act being passed. In 2013 the changes were driven by constitutional and judicial requirements and in 2019 by the political will of Pakistan’s new coalition government. This article analyses and compares the functional assignment (FA) architecture of the two Acts against a set of parameters. The study finds that marginal improvements to the FA architecture introduced by the 2019 Act are offset by continuing inconsistencies and lack of clarity over ‘who does what’ in the functions assigned to local governments. The authors suggest that improving the functionality of local governments requires full implementation of the design features of the new system, including institutional strengthening of provincial-level entities which regulate and oversee the local government system

Rainfall forecast using SARIMA model along the coastal areas of Sindh Province

Rainfall forecasting is critical for economic activities such as agriculture, watershed management, and flood control. It requires mathematical modelling and simulation. This paper investigates the time series analysis and forecasting of the monthly rainfall for the Sindh coastline, Pakistan. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for the last three decades (1991-2020) and forecasting was done for the next two years. The model is based on the Box Jenkins methodology. The decomposition of time series plots into trend, seasonaland random components showed a seasonal effect. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Mann–Kendall (MK) tests showed the inherent stationarity of the rainfall data. The best SARIMA models for monthly rainfall were SARIMA (1,0,1)(3,1,1)12 and SARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,1)12 with Akaike information criterion corrected (AICC) values of 1507 and 1387, respectively. The model predictions indicate that, in the years 2021/22, July will likely have the most rainfall, followed by August and June. The diagnostic statistical test values directed that the adequacy of the models is consistent for projected monthly rainfall forecasts

Increased sea water intrusion in the vicinity of Tidal Link Drain at south Sindh (Pakistan)

The Tidal Link Drain is a man made drain which delivers the drainage water across Pateji and Cholri Dhands into the Arabian Sea via Shah Samando creek. The Tidal Link is 41 Km long from its point of juncture with Kaddan Pateji Outfall Drain (KPOD) in the North-East up to Shah Samando Creek in the South-West. The vertical tidal range in the area is about 5 m. The tidal link was designed to carry about 3,118 cusecs of drainage waters. After completion of Tidal Link Drain, sea water intrusion and high erosion/sedimentation have been noticed at the tidal link and adjacent area due to changes in the hydraulic regime in the area. The devastation caused by tropical cyclone “2A” in May, 1999 in the Indus delta has also created some drastic morphological changes in the area. This physical process creates breaches in the Tidal link drain between RD-30 and RD-125. These openings allow free exchange of water between the tidal link drain, Dhands and the Rann of Kutch. The analysis of tidal behavior, tidal current measurements and water samples collected in the study area shows that a small tidal creek type system of drainage channels has now been developed in Cholri Dhand and this system of channels is now used to flush water during ebb tide from surrounding Dhands of LBOD through Tidal Link Drain. It is observed that the LBOD can now be described as a “New River” that is forming an “Estuary”, which is an integral part of the creek system of the coastal area. The tidal link now acts as a tidal stream in which tidal fluctuations are very much visible and the sea water is now approaching the land. The main problem concerning the LBOD outfall is the increased hydraulic gradient due to seawater intrusion. The LBOD run parallel to the Indus River and discharges the saline water at the same level (sea level) in an active creek area of the Shah Samando Creek. The same altered hydraulic gradient creates very strong ebb currents in the region, which are responsible for making breaches in the tidal link drain and erosion and accretion in the Dhands

Knowledge of Clinical Students Regarding Pandemic H1N1Influenza

DergiPark: 379057tmsjAims: The aim of this study is to seek perception of clinical students concerning Pandemic H1N1 Influenza and its relation with the social and demographic determinants. We chose medical students as subjects of the study because this stratum is looked upon by the general population as a vital media to convey key directives regarding disease prevention, control and management. The important thing about this study is that it is the first of its kind to be conducted in medical institutes of Punjab. It paves a way for further studies aimed at pinpointing attitude and practices regarding Pandemic H1N1 Influenza among medical and paramedical staff. Our study can assist health care authorities unveil the knowledge gaps by developing educational campaigns. Methods: Data was collected through distribution of self-administered questionnaires to 300 students selected by the lottery method considering stratified random sampling. The study included 3rd, 4th and final year Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery students. Questions were asked about signs and symptoms, source of information, mode and route of transmission, mainly affected organs, sample to be tested, availability of treatment and vaccination, spread of infection and requirement of urgent interventions. The information collected was entered and analyzed through Statistical Package for Social Sciences Software version 23. Results: With 100% response rate, the major source of information remained as doctors (44.3%) and the common sign reported was runny nose (33.7%). The mean Pandemic H1N1 influenza knowledge point±standard deviation was 6.49±1.94 degrees. Rate of medical students, who knew about causative agent was 96.3%, route of transmission 69.7%, mode of transmission 62.3%, correct complications 77%, treatment available 66.7%, vaccine availability 41%, test availability 64.3%, specimen of choice to diagnose 29.3%, organ chiefly affected 49.3% and situations requiring urgent intervention 70%. Only 25.3% were aware of the fact that water is not responsible for the spread of the virus. Knowledge of each following year was higher. Female gender remained significant predictor in majority of questions. Conclusion: The study described that the knowledge of medical students regarding Pandemic H1N1 Influenza was moderate. The awareness about disease transmission and management was found to be inadequate. The majority had some misconceptions about the disease. The study provides the pace to disseminate awareness about this infection among students by organizing workshops and seminars