Determination of sampling effort required for estimating egg production of anchoveta, Engraulis ringens, off Peru

Para obtener una primera aproximación del número de muestras requerido para un determinado nivel de precisión del estimado de producción de huevos de anchoveta por unidad de área superficial del mar, se han utilizado datos existentes de muestras de huevos provenientes de exploraciones efectuadas frente al Perú en los últimos 20 años. La anchoveta parece desovar en cardúmenes, produciendo una gran can­ tidad de huevos, de los que las muestras toman una pequeña proporción. Aproximadamente el 8º/o de las muestras positivas fueron superiores a 4096 huevos por m2. Un importante cambio en el tamaño de la población de la anchoveta peruana se ha notado en 1972. El rango de valores de huevos fue similar antes y después del cambio, pero el número promedio de huevos por muestra positiva fue aproximada­ mente el doble antes de la declinación en 1971. Se ha tomado en consideración la precisión de la estimación deseada y los costos y disponibilidad de tiempo de barco en la estación de desove para elaborar un plan de crucero a un costo razonable. El área investigada cubre 57600 millas cuadradas; con 640 millas a lo largo y 90 millas hacia afuera de la costa. En esta proyección una precisión del estimado de 30º/o requiere 924 muestras y 20º/o de precisión requiere 2078 muestras. Se discute los sesgos en la estimación de precisión. Se usa la distribución de probabilidad log-normal en la descripción de muestras positivas.Boletín IMARPE;Vol. 7, N° 1, 1982, 18 p.IMARP

Climate controls on marine ecosystems and fish populations

This paper discusses large-scale climate variability for several marine ecosystems and suggests types of ecosystem responses to climate change. Our analysis of observations and model results for the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans concludes that most climate variability is accounted for by the combination of intermittent 1–2 year duration events, e.g. the cumulative effect of monthly weather anomalies or the more organized El Niño/La Niña, plus broad-band “red noise” intrinsic variability operating at decadal and longer timescales. While ocean processes such as heat storage and lags due to ocean circulation provide some multi-year memory to the climate system, basic understanding of the mechanisms resulting in observed large decadal variability is lacking and forces the adoption of a “stochastic or red noise” conceptual model of low frequency variability at the present time. Thus we conclude that decadal events with rapid shifts and major departures from climatic means will occur, but their timing cannot be forecast. The responses to climate by biological systems are diverse in character because intervening processes introduce a variety of amplifications, time lags, feedbacks, and non-linearities. Decadal ecosystem variability can involve a variety of climate to ecosystem transfer functions. These can be expected to convert red noise of the physical system to redder (lower frequency) noise of the biological response, but can also convert climatic red noise to more abrupt and discontinuous biological shifts, transient climatic disturbance to prolonged ecosystem recovery, and perhaps transient disturbance to sustained ecosystem regimes. All of these ecosystem response characteristics are likely to be active for at least some locations and time periods, leading to a mix of slow fluctuations, prolonged trends, and step-like changes in ecosystems and fish populations in response to climate change. Climate variables such as temperatures and winds can have strong teleconnections (large spatial covariability) within individual ocean basins, but between-basin teleconnections, and potential climate-driven biological synchrony over several decades, are usually much weaker and a highly intermittent function of the conditions prevailing at the time within the adjoining basins. As noted in the recent IPCC 4th Assessment Report, a warming trend of ocean surface layers and loss of regional sea ice is likely before 2030, due to addition of greenhouse gases. Combined with large continuing natural climate variability, this will stress ecosystems in ways that they have not encountered for at least 100s of years

Climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas

European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) are southern, warm water species that prefer temperatures warmer than those found in boreal waters. After about 40 years of absence, they were again observed in the 1990s in increasing quantities in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Whereas global warming probably played a role in these northward migrations, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the contraction of the subpolar gyre were important influences. Sardine re-invaded the North Sea around 1990, probably mainly as a response to warmer temperatures associated with the strengthening of the NAO in the late 1980s. However, increasing numbers of anchovy eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults have been recorded only since the mid-1990s, when, particularly, summer temperatures started to increase. This is probably a result of the complex dynamics of ocean-atmosphere coupling involving changes in North Atlantic current structures, such as the contraction of the subpolar gyre, and dynamics of AMO. Apparently, climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas. Here, we elucidate the climatic background of the return of anchovies and sardines to the northern European shelf seas and the changes in the North Sea fish community in the mid-1990s in response to climate variability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Planning benchmark study for SBRT of early stage NSCLC

Purpose The aim was to evaluate stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) treatment planning variability for early stage nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with respect to the published guidelines of the Stereotactic Radiotherapy Working Group of the German Society for Radiation Oncology (DEGRO). Materials and methods Planning computed tomography (CT) scan and the structure sets (planning target volume, PTV; organs at risk, OARs) of 3 patients with early stage NSCLC were sent to 22 radiotherapy departments with SBRT experience: each department was asked to prepare a treatment plan according to the DEGRO guidelines. The prescription dose was 3 fractions of 15 Gy to the 65% isodose. Results In all, 87 plans were generated: 36 used intensity-modulated arc therapy (IMAT), 21 used three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT), 6 used static field intensity-modulated radiation therapy (SF-IMRT), 9 used helical radiotherapy and 15 used robotic radiosurgery. PTV dose coverage and simultaneously kept OARs doses were within the clinical limits published in the DEGRO guidelines. However, mean PTV dose (mean 58.0 Gy, range 52.8-66.4 Gy) and dose conformity indices (mean 0.75, range 0.60-1.00) varied between institutions and techniques (p <= 0.02). OARs doses varied substantially between institutions, but appeared to be technique independent (p = 0.21). Conclusion All studied treatment techniques are well suited for SBRT of early stage NSCLC according to the DEGRO guidelines. Homogenization of SBRT practice in Germany is possible through the guidelines; however, detailed treatment plan characteristics varied between techniques and institutions and further homogenization is warranted in future studies and recommendations. Optimized treatment planning should always follow the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle