The Role of Simulation Methods in Macroeconomics

After reviewing the reasons to use solution methods in macroeconomics,this survey paper discusses diferent aspects relative to a rigorous use of the numerical output of such methods. Special attention is paid to suggestions that have been made to incorporate parameter uncertainty. Finally, the need to test for usually maintained assumptions, such as rationality of expectations, is emphasized.Numerical solution methods, Rational expectations, Calibration.

A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets

This paper departs from previous research in dealing with dimensionality reduction in the space of international term structure slopes. Recent empirical work has documented the existence of information in the slope of the term structure which is relevant to forecast future changes in economic activity, and it is additional to information in past economic activity, inflation, or in any leading indicator index [see Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991), Stock and Watson (1988), Hardouvelis (1994) and Plosser and Rouwenhorst (1994), among others]. This implies that a good forecasting model of term structure slopes could be helpful to anticipate changes in economic activity with an even longer anticipation.Term structure of interest rates, Term structure slope, Principal components, Eurocurrencies.

Dynamic correlations and forecasting of term structure slopes in eurocurrency market

Using monthly data on Euro-rates for 1979-1998, we examine the extent to which crosscountry information on term structure slopes can be used to improve upon univariate slope forecasts. This is interesting from the point of view of forecasting economic activity, since term structure slopes are known to anticipate fluctuations in the real economy. Additionally, the Expectations Hypothesis states that the term structure slope summarizes the available information which is relevant for forecasting future short-term interest rates, so that improved slope forecasts might also lead to better forecasts of future interest rates. We find ample evidence of significant explanatory power in term structure slopes across countries. Besides, we document that this information content leads to improved forecasts of the term structure slope in some countries, using a foreign slope as indicator.Term structure of interest rates, Term structure slope, Expectations hypothesis, Eurocurrencies.

Volatility Transmission acros the Term Structure of Swap Markets: International Evidence

We characterize the behavior of volatility across the term structure of interest rate swaps in three currencies (Deutsche mark, Japanese yen and US Dollar)Interest rate swaps, Term structure of interest rates, Autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic models, Volatility spillovers.

Dynamic Laffer Curves

In an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation, we discuss the possibility of welfare improving changes on the 1scal policy stance in some actual economies. First, we characterize the extent to which the initial fall in revenues produced by a permanent tax cut can be compensated by an increase in the tax base, due to a dynamic La#er curve efect, showing that there is, in fact, a non-trivial margin for substituting debt for taxes on labor and capital income. Second, we show that the largest feasible reduction in labor income tax rates may easily produce a higher welfare gain than the largest feasible reduction in capital income tax rates. Two qualifications: (a) feasible tax cuts exist only for a relatively high elasticity of intertemporal substitution of consumption, and (b) the preference for the largest feasible tax cut on labor income rather than that on capital income reverses for a low appreciation for leisure, relative to consumption, in the preferences of the representative agent.Endogenous growth; Human capital accumulation; La#er e#ect

Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?".

We evaluate the extent to which the explanatory power detected in the term structure in different markets and countries can actually be used to produce sensible forecasts of future short-term interest rates. Specifically, in spite of the forecasting connotation of the unbiasedness property of forward rates, actual evaluation of their forecasting performance has received scant attention in the literature on the term structure. We use monthly data for 1978-1998 on interest rates on Eurodeposits on the US dollar, yen, Deutsche mark, British pound, Spanish peseta, French franc, Italian lira and Swiss franc, comparing forecasts obtained from forward rates to those obtained from univariate autoregressions. By themselves, forward rates produce better one-step ahead forecasts, as well as better once-and-for all forecasts of 1-month interest rates over a full year horizon than those obtained from the own past of interest rates. The gain in one-step ahead forecasting disappears for longer maturities, although forward rates still produce better once-and-for all predictions of 3- and 6-month interest rates than univariate autoregressions for a number of currencies.Expectations hypothesis, Term structure, Forward rates

The Forecasting Ability of Factor Models of the Term Structure of IRS Markets

Using estimated principal components as factors, three-factors models are shown to produce forecasts comparable to those of autoregressive models for 2 to 10 year zaero coupon interest rates IRS markets both, for short- and medium- term forecasting horizons. Evidence is provided for the Deutsche mark, Spanish peseta, Japanese yen and US Dollar. Forecast from factor models are also shown to preserve the correlation matrix of interest rates across a given term structure, an important proprerty regarding risk management. The result is quite striking, because factor models are purely static, and forecasts for the factors must be obtained in advance of interest rate forecast.factor modelsFactor models, Term structure of interest rates, Principal components, Swap markets, IRS

Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market

We provide an analytical discussion of the optimal hedge ratio under discrepancies between the futures market price and its theoretical valuation according to the cost-of-carry model. Assuming a geometric Brownian motion for spot prices, we model mispricing as a speci…c noise component in the dynamics of futures market prices. Empirical evidence on the model is provided for the Spanish stock index futures. Ex-ante simulations with actual data reveal that hedge ratios that take into account the estimated, time-varying, correlation between the common and specific disturbances, lead to using a lower number of futures contracts than under a systematic unit ratio, without generally losing hedging e¤ectiveness, while reducing transaction costs and capital requirements. Besides, the reduction in the number of contracts can be substantial over some periods. Finally, a meanvariance expected utility function suggests that the economic benefits from an optimal hedge are substantial.Optimal hedging; Futures contract; Stock Index; GARCH models; Mispricing.

Taxing or subsidizing Factors' rents in a simple endogenous growth model with public capital

This paper tackles the fundamental issue in public finance of wether taxing or subsidizing factor rents. In a one sector endogenous growth model with private and public capital, similar to that in Barro (1990),we find that raising taxes on factors’ income as part of an optimal fiscal policy is a more pervasive result than it seems. The interaction of technological and fiscal externalities is central for this result. For instance, high enough levels of wasteful expenditures to output ratio could make positive income taxes enhance welfare. This ratio would need to be smaller, the lower the spillover externality and/or the larger the elasticities of private and public capital in the private production function.Endogenous growth, Factors’ rents subsidy, Distorting taxes, Public capital.

Growth and welfare: Distorting versus non-distorting taxes

In an infinitely-lived framework, taxing capital income may be growth and welfare enhancing when it allows for correcting distorting externalities in the competitive equilibrium allocation. This is the case when public capital is subject to congestion by private capital or total income [Fisher and Turnovsky (1998)] or when government expenditure exerts an external e.ect on physical capital [Corsetti and Roubini (1996)]. However, none of these features appear in simple one-sector endogenous growth models with public capital. Alternatively, we consider certain realistic fiscal policy constraints in a simple one-sector growth model with productive and unproductive public expenditures, to show that raising revenues through factor income taxes may be preferred to using lump-sum taxes.Endogenous growth, distorting taxes, public investment.