Stable parametric identification of vibratory diagnostics objects

A common model of vibratory diagnostics objects is the stochastic difference schemes, and theirs parametrical identification is carried out least squares and least absolute deviations techniques. It is well known that these techniques are unstable under stochastic heterogeneity of observable process, specifically, in the presence of outliers. One way to make the stable parametrical identification of vibratory diagnostics objects is implementation of generalized least absolute deviations method based on concave loss function. Obtained requirements to the loss function guaranteeing the steadiness evaluation, algorithms of identification and examples are presente

Consequences of Raising The Retirement Age for the Labor Market in the Regions of Russia

The article presents the results of a study aimed at assessing the consequences for the labor market of raising the retirement age in Russia. The foreign experience of raising the retirement age, on the basis of which a number of characteristic moments of this process are highlighted, is presented. The review of the scientific literature showed a polemical character of the problem under investigation and allowed to formulate a hypothesis of the study, which is as follows: raising the retirement age will lead to an increase in the supply of labor, which will entail the reduction of the labor price. The article presents an analysis of the current situation in the labor market. Since the raise of the retirement age will require the availability of vacant jobs in an amount not less than the number of people detained in the labor market, two tasks have been solved in this study. In the first task, the change in the average wage was calculated, provided that the number of jobs will meet the increased need, i.e. unemployment will remain at the same level. In the second task, the number of jobs is fixed to estimate the potential effect of raising the retirement age. Evaluation of the effect of raising the retirement age with a fixed number of jobs was carried out by constructing a regression relationship between wages and unemployment, differences in age groups were taken into account by introducing fictitious shift and tilt variables into the model. According to the calculations obtained under the first and second tasks, wages will decrease with the raising of the retirement age by one year for both sexes. The results of the study showed that the decision to raise the retirement age should be accompanied by a number of serious additional measures, primarily in the employment of population sector. © 2019, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research. All rights reserved.Russian Science Foundation, RSF: 14-18-00574The research is conducted with the support of the Russian Science Foundation, Project No. 14-18-00574 "Anti-Crisis Information and Analysis System: Diagnostics of Regions, Threat Assessment, and Scenario Forecasting in Order to Preserve and Enhance Economic Security and Improve Welfare of Russia, an information-analytical system.

How to Raise Pensions by Legalizing Informal Employment

The article presents the study on the problems of imbalances in the Russian pension system, which prevent ensuring the provision of decent pensions for the population at a level that is adequate to their labor contribution. In this study, the authors set a goal of substantiating proposals for building a balanced pension system in Russia. They considered the possibility of increasing the number of workers (contributors to the pension system) by legalizing the informal employment as a reserve for increasing the receipts of insurance contributions to the pension system. In performing of the study was tested the working hypothesis, which is: to ensure a balanced pension system in Russia and raise the pensions, such reserve of increasing the number of contributors as the legalization of informal employment is sufficient. The article set and addressed the optimization problem of legalizing the informal sector of the Russian economy within the existing unfunded pension system in case of raising the pensions to 40% of lost earnings. The authors built a non-linear programming optimization problem based on the balance equation of unfunded pension system. They presented a number of test estimates and conclusions drawn on their basis. First, to ensure a balanced pension system in Russia and raise the pensions, such reserve for increasing the number of contributors as the legalization of informal employment is significant but not sufficient. Secondly, a 40% wage replacement rate can be achieved only in case of virtually complete legalization of population employment in the informal sector. Thirdly, the authors identified the particular characteristics of informal employment legalization in specific economic activities