Longitudinal Study of the Variation in Patient Turnover and Patient-to-Nurse Ratio: Descriptive Analysis of a Swiss University Hospital

Variations in patient demand increase the challenge of balancing high-quality nursing skill mixes against budgetary constraints. Developing staffing guidelines that allow high-quality care at minimal cost requires first exploring the dynamic changes in nursing workload over the course of a day.; Accordingly, this longitudinal study analyzed nursing care supply and demand in 30-minute increments over a period of 3 years. We assessed 5 care factors: patient count (care demand), nurse count (care supply), the patient-to-nurse ratio for each nurse group, extreme supply-demand mismatches, and patient turnover (ie, number of admissions, discharges, and transfers).; Our retrospective analysis of data from the Inselspital University Hospital Bern, Switzerland included all inpatients and nurses working in their units from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017. Two data sources were used. The nurse staffing system (tacs) provided information about nurses and all the care they provided to patients, their working time, and admission, discharge, and transfer dates and times. The medical discharge data included patient demographics, further admission and discharge details, and diagnoses. Based on several identifiers, these two data sources were linked.; Our final dataset included more than 58 million data points for 128,484 patients and 4633 nurses across 70 units. Compared with patient turnover, fluctuations in the number of nurses were less pronounced. The differences mainly coincided with shifts (night, morning, evening). While the percentage of shifts with extreme staffing fluctuations ranged from fewer than 3% (mornings) to 30% (evenings and nights), the percentage within "normal" ranges ranged from fewer than 50% to more than 80%. Patient turnover occurred throughout the measurement period but was lowest at night.; Based on measurements of patient-to-nurse ratio and patient turnover at 30-minute intervals, our findings indicate that the patient count, which varies considerably throughout the day, is the key driver of changes in the patient-to-nurse ratio. This demand-side variability challenges the supply-side mandate to provide safe and reliable care. Detecting and describing patterns in variability such as these are key to appropriate staffing planning. This descriptive analysis was a first step towards identifying time-related variables to be considered for a predictive nurse staffing model

Statistical learning and big data applications

The amount of data generated in the field of laboratory medicine has grown to an extent that conventional laboratory information systems (LISs) are struggling to manage and analyze this complex, entangled information (“Big Data”). Statistical learning, a generalized framework from machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) is predestined for processing “Big Data” and holds the potential to revolutionize the field of laboratory medicine. Personalized medicine may in particular benefit from AI-based systems, especially when coupled with readily available wearables and smartphones which can collect health data from individual patients and offer new, cost-effective access routes to healthcare for patients worldwide. The amount of personal data collected, however, also raises concerns about patient-privacy and calls for clear ethical guidelines for “Big Data” research, including rigorous quality checks of data and algorithms to eliminate underlying bias and enable transparency. Likewise, novel federated privacy-preserving data processing approaches may reduce the need for centralized data storage. Generative AI-systems including large language models such as ChatGPT currently enter the stage to reshape clinical research, clinical decision-support systems, and healthcare delivery. In our opinion, AI-based systems have a tremendous potential to transform laboratory medicine, however, their opportunities should be weighed against the risks carefully. Despite all enthusiasm, we advocate for stringent added-value assessments, just as for any new drug or treatment. Human experts should carefully validate AI-based systems, including patient-privacy protection, to ensure quality, transparency, and public acceptance. In this opinion paper, data prerequisites, recent developments, chances, and limitations of statistical learning approaches are highlighted

Urine Flow Cytometry Parameter Cannot Safely Predict Contamination of Urine-A Cohort Study of a Swiss Emergency Department Using Machine Learning Techniques.

BACKGROUND Urine flow cytometry (UFC) analyses urine samples and determines parameter counts. We aimed to predict different types of urine culture growth, including mixed growth indicating urine culture contamination. METHODS A retrospective cohort study (07/2017-09/2020) was performed on pairs of urine samples and urine cultures obtained from adult emergency department patients. The dataset was split into a training (75%) and validation set (25%). Statistical analysis was performed using a machine learning approach with extreme gradient boosting to predict urine culture growth types (i.e., negative, positive, and mixed) using UFC parameters obtained by UF-4000, sex, and age. RESULTS In total, 3835 urine samples were included. Detection of squamous epithelial cells, bacteria, and leukocytes by UFC were associated with the different types of culture growth. We achieved a prediction accuracy of 80% in the three-class approach. Of the n = 126 mixed cultures in the validation set, 11.1% were correctly predicted; positive and negative cultures were correctly predicted in 74.0% and 96.3%. CONCLUSIONS Significant bacterial growth can be safely ruled out using UFC parameters. However, positive urine culture growth (rule in) or even mixed culture growth (suggesting contamination) cannot be adequately predicted using UFC parameters alone. Squamous epithelial cells are associated with mixed culture growth

Extending outbreak investigation with machine learning and graph theory: Benefits of new tools with application to a nosocomial outbreak of a multidrug-resistant organism.

OBJECTIVE From January 1, 2018, until July 31, 2020, our hospital network experienced an outbreak of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE). The goal of our study was to improve existing processes by applying machine-learning and graph-theoretical methods to a nosocomial outbreak investigation. METHODS We assembled medical records generated during the first 2 years of the outbreak period (January 2018 through December 2019). We identified risk factors for VRE colonization using standard statistical methods, and we extended these with a decision-tree machine-learning approach. We then elicited possible transmission pathways by detecting commonalities between VRE cases using a graph theoretical network analysis approach. RESULTS We compared 560 VRE patients to 86,684 controls. Logistic models revealed predictors of VRE colonization as age (aOR, 1.4 (per 10 years), with 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-1.5; P < .001), ICU admission during stay (aOR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.9; P < .001), Charlson comorbidity score (aOR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.1-1.2; P < .001), the number of different prescribed antibiotics (aOR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.5-1.7; P < .001), and the number of rooms the patient stayed in during their hospitalization(s) (aOR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.1-1.2; P < .001). The decision-tree machine-learning method confirmed these findings. Graph network analysis established 3 main pathways by which the VRE cases were connected: healthcare personnel, medical devices, and patient rooms. CONCLUSIONS We identified risk factors for being a VRE carrier, along with 3 important links with VRE (healthcare personnel, medical devices, patient rooms). Data science is likely to provide a better understanding of outbreaks, but interpretations require data maturity, and potential confounding factors must be considered

Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review.

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties

The association between nurse staffing and inpatient mortality: A shift-level retrospective longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND Worldwide, hospitals face pressure to reduce costs. Some respond by working with a reduced number of nurses or less qualified nursing staff. OBJECTIVE This study aims at examining the relationship between mortality and patient exposure to shifts with low or high nurse staffing. METHODS This longitudinal study used routine shift-, unit-, and patient-level data for three years (2015-2017) from one Swiss university hospital. Data from 55 units, 79,893 adult inpatients and 3646 nurses (2670 registered nurses, 438 licensed practical nurses, and 538 unlicensed and administrative personnel) were analyzed. After developing a staffing model to identify high- and low-staffed shifts, we fitted logistic regression models to explore associations between nurse staffing and mortality. RESULTS Exposure to shifts with high levels of registered nurses had lower odds of mortality by 8.7% [odds ratio 0.91 95% CI 0.89-0.93]. Conversely, low staffing was associated with higher odds of mortality by 10% [odds ratio 1.10 95% CI 1.07-1.13]. The associations between mortality and staffing by other groups was less clear. For example, both high and low staffing of unlicensed and administrative personnel were associated with higher mortality, respectively 1.03 [95% CI 1.01-1.04] and 1.04 [95% CI 1.03-1.06]. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS This patient-level longitudinal study suggests a relationship between registered nurses staffing levels and mortality. Higher levels of registered nurses positively impact patient outcome (i.e. lower odds of mortality) and lower levels negatively (i.e. higher odds of mortality). Contributions of the three other groups to patient safety is unclear from these results. Therefore, substitution of either group for registered nurses is not recommended

Deployment of an Automated Method Verification-Graphical User Interface (MV-GUI) Software

Clinical laboratories frequently conduct method verification studies to ensure that the process meets quality standards for its intended use, such as patient testing. They play a pivotal role in healthcare, but issues such as accurate statistical assessment and reporting of verification data often make these studies challenging. Missteps can lead to false conclusions about method performance, risking patient safety or leading to incorrect diagnoses. Despite a requirement for accredited labs to document method performance, existing solutions are often expensive and complex. Addressing these issues, we present Method Verification-Graphical User Interface (MV-GUI), a software package designed for ease of use. It is platform-independent, capable of statistical analysis, and generates accreditation-ready reports swiftly and efficiently. Users can input patient data from one or more .CSV files, and MV-GUI will produce comprehensive reports, including statistical comparison tables, regression plots, and Bland–Altman plots. While method validation, which establishes the performance of new diagnostic tools, remains a crucial concern for manufacturers, MV-GUI primarily streamlines the method verification process. The software aids both medical practitioners and researchers and is designed to be user-friendly, even for non-experienced users. Requiring no internet connection, MV-GUI can operate in restricted IT environments, making method verification widely accessible and efficient