Automatic estimation of flux distributions of astrophysical source populations

In astrophysics a common goal is to infer the flux distribution of populations of scientifically interesting objects such as pulsars or supernovae. In practice, inference for the flux distribution is often conducted using the cumulative distribution of the number of sources detected at a given sensitivity. The resulting "$\log(N>S)$-$\log (S)$" relationship can be used to compare and evaluate theoretical models for source populations and their evolution. Under restrictive assumptions the relationship should be linear. In practice, however, when simple theoretical models fail, it is common for astrophysicists to use prespecified piecewise linear models. This paper proposes a methodology for estimating both the number and locations of "breakpoints" in astrophysical source populations that extends beyond existing work in this field. An important component of the proposed methodology is a new interwoven EM algorithm that computes parameter estimates. It is shown that in simple settings such estimates are asymptotically consistent despite the complex nature of the parameter space. Through simulation studies it is demonstrated that the proposed methodology is capable of accurately detecting structural breaks in a variety of parameter configurations. This paper concludes with an application of our methodology to the Chandra Deep Field North (CDFN) data set.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS750 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Evaluation of Pavement Markings on Low-Volume Rural Roadways in Iowa

Many rural roadways in Iowa have centerline and/or edgeline pavement markings. The current Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD), however, requires centerline and/or edgeline pavement markings only along streets and roadways with traffic volumes much greater than 400 vehicles per day (the volume-based definition of a low-volume roadway in the MUTCD). This project was initiated to gather and summarize information about the state of practice related to the installation and maintenance of pavement markings along low-volume rural roadways in Iowa. Additional information was also collected to provide more guidance in the pavement-marking decision-making process. The tasks completed include an examination and summary of past research, the collection of legal input related to the use of pavement markings in Iowa, and a survey of Iowa county engineers that focused on their current pavement-marking practices. A basic safety benefit-cost evaluation of pavementmarking applications was also performed. Overall, the literature on the effectiveness of pavement markings and their safety impacts is limited. A number of studies have been completed with varying levels of robustness and reliability in their results. The Highway Safety Manual includes crash modification factors for the installation of centerline markings that it indicates should be used with caution, and one for the installation of edgeline and centerline markings that equates to a 24 percent total serious and minor-injury crash reduction. A more recent study from Louisiana also found a 15 percent reduction in total crashes after the addition of edgelines. The legal input acquired as part of this project was generally common knowledge. It indicated that once a traffic control device has been installed, the jurisdiction must properly and adequately maintain it. The survey completed found that, of the great majority of the respondents (97 percent), painted centerline/no passing zones and edgelines on at least some of their paved low-volume rural roadways. A much smaller percentage took this approach, or just painted centerlines/no passing zones, along their seal-coated roadways. The basic cost-benefit evaluation found that the percentage of crash reduction needed from pavement markings to make them beneficial was very low (i.e., 5.1 percent, at most). Overall, it was concluded that pavement markings are widely used in Iowa along low-volume paved roadways and sometimes seal-coated roadways. In addition, there is a safety benefit to the installation of pavement markings. but the research into that impact is limited, particularly along low-volume roadways. It is recommended that further analysis be completed on potential pavement-marking safety impacts, that a pavement-marking database be developed, and that a committee be initiated to help develop policies related to pavement-marking removal

Precision cancer monitoring using a novel, fully integrated, microfluidic array partitioning digital PCR platform.

A novel digital PCR (dPCR) platform combining off-the-shelf reagents, a micro-molded plastic microfluidic consumable with a fully integrated single dPCR instrument was developed to address the needs for routine clinical diagnostics. This new platform offers a simplified workflow that enables: rapid time-to-answer; low potential for cross contamination; minimal sample waste; all within a single integrated instrument. Here we showcase the capability of this fully integrated platform to detect and quantify non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) rare genetic mutants (EGFR T790M) with precision cell-free DNA (cfDNA) standards. Next, we validated the platform with an established chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) fusion gene (BCR-ABL1) assay down to 0.01% mutant allele frequency to highlight the platform's utility for precision cancer monitoring. Thirdly, using a juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia (JMML) patient-specific assay we demonstrate the ability to precisely track an individual cancer patient's response to therapy and show the patient's achievement of complete molecular remission. These three applications highlight the flexibility and utility of this novel fully integrated dPCR platform that has the potential to transform personalized medicine for cancer recurrence monitoring

Refining Technology Threat Avoidance Theory

Understanding individual threat avoidance motivation and behavior is a critical component in designing effective cyber security solutions for both users and organizations. Technology threat avoidance theory (TTAT) asserts that individuals’ perceptions regarding their susceptibility to and the resulting severity of technology threats influence their awareness of the threats, which, in turn, influences their motivation and behavior to avoid them. While TTAT provides cogently and logically explains individuals’ technology threat motivations and behaviors, empirical tests have produced equivocal results particularly in terms of the influence of susceptibility and severity on threat perceptions. Due to these inconsistencies in the threat calculus involving susceptibility, severity, and threat, we need more work to improve and understand individual threat motivations. Additionally, TTAT does not account for individual differences such as risk propensity, distrust propensity, and impulsivity that have been shown to affect cyber security behavior. To address these gaps, we present an empirical assessment of a refined TTAT model, which includes individual differences and models the influence of susceptibility on threat perceptions as partially mediated by severity. Results indicate that, while perceived susceptibility is a significant predictor of threat perceptions, severity perceptions partially mediates its effect. Our results also support the inclusion of risk propensity and distrust propensity in the TTAT model as personal characteristics that significantly affect overall threat perceptions