Distance to Frontier and Appropriate Business Strategy

This paper is an empirical test of the hypothesis that the appropriateness of different business strategies is conditional on the firms distance to the industry frontier. We use data on four 2-digit high-tech manufacturing industries in the US over the period 1972-1999, and apply semi-parametric quantile regressions to investigate the contribution of firm behavior to market value at various points of the conditional distribution of Tobin's q. Among our results, we observe that innovative activity, measured in terms of R&D expenditure or patents, has a strong positive association with market value at the upper quantiles (corresponding to the leader firms) whereas the innovative efforts of laggard firms are valued significantly less. Laggard firms, we suggest, should instead achieve productivity growth through efficient exploitation of existing technologies and imitation of industry leaders. Employment growth in leader firms is encouraged whereas growth of backward firms is not as well received on the stock market.Distance to frontier, Strategy, Market value, Innovation, Firm Growth

A Closer Look at Serial Growth Rate Correlation

Serial correlation in annual growth rates carries a lot of information on growth pro-cesses – it allows us to directly observe firm performance as well as to test theories. Using a 7-year balanced panel of 10 000 French manufacturing firms, we observe that small firms typically are subject to negative correlation of annual growth rates, whereas larger firms display positive correlation. Furthermore, we find that those small firms that experience extreme positive or negative growth in any one year are unlikely to repeat this performance in the following yearSerial correlation, firm growth, quantile regression, French manufacturing, fast-growth firms

Towards an Explanation of the Exponential Distribution of Firm Growth Rates

A robust feature of the corporate growth process is the exponential distribution of firm growth rates. This striking empirical regularity has been found to hold for a number of different datasets and at different levels of aggregation. In this paper, we propose a simple theoretical model capable of explaining this observed exponential distribution. We do not attempt to generalize on where growth opportunities come from, but rather we focus on how firms build upon growth opportunities. We borrow ideas from the self-organizing criticality literature to explain how the interdependent nature of discrete resources may lead to the triggering off a series of additions to a firm's resources. In a formal model we consider the case of employment growth in a hierarchy, and observe that growth rates follow an exponential distribution.Firm growth rates, exponential distribution, hierarchy.

Firms as Bundles of Discrete Resources - Towards an Explanation of the Exponential Distribution of Firm Growth Rates

A robust feature of the corporate growth process is the Laplace, or symmetric exponential, distribution of firm growth rates. In this paper, we sketch out a class of simple theoretical models capable of explaining this empirical regularity. We do not attempt to generalize on where growth opportunities comme from, but rather we focus on how firms build upon growth opportunites. We borrow ideas from the self-organizing criticality literature to explain how the interdependent nature of discrete resources may lead to the triggering off of a series of additions to a firm's resources. In a first formal model we consider the case of employment growth in a hierarchy, and observe that growth rates follow an exponential distribution. In a second model we include plant and capital as resources and we are able to reproduce a number of stylized facts about firm growth.Firm growth rates, exponential distribution, hierarchy, growth autocorrelation.

Neoclassical vs Evolutionary Theories of Financial Constraints : Critique and Prospectus

Complicated neoclassical models predict that if investment is sensitive to current financial performance, this is a sign that something is "wrong" and is to be regarded as a problem for policy. Evolutionary theory, on the other hand, refers to the principle of "growth of the fitter" to explain investment-cash flow sensitivities as the workings of a healthy economy. In particular, I attack the neoclassical assumption of managers maximizing shareholder-value. Such an assumption is not a helpful starting point for empirical studies into firm growth. one caricature of neoclassical theory could be "Assume firms are perfectly efficient. Why aren't they getting enoug funding ?", whereas evolutionary theory considers that firms are forever struggling to grow. This essay highlights how policy guidelines can be framed by the initial modelling assumptions, even though these latter are often chosen with analytical tractability in mind rather than realism.Financial constraints, firm growth, evolutionary theory, neoclassical theory, investment.

Distance to Frontier and Appropriate Business Strategy

This paper is an empirical test of the hypothesis that the appropriateness of different business strategies is conditional on the firm’s distance to the industry frontier. We use data on four 2-digit high-tech manufacturing industries in the US over the period 1972-1999, and apply semi-parametric quantile regressions to investigate the contribution of firm behavior to market value at various points of the conditional distribution of Tobin’s q. Among our results, we observe that innovative activity, measured in terms of R&D expenditure or patents, has a strong positive association with market value at the upper quantiles (corresponding to the leader firms) whereas the innovative efforts of laggard firms are valued significantly less. Laggard firms, we suggest, should instead achieve productivity growth through efficient exploitation of existing technologies and imitation of industry leaders. Employment growth in leader firms is encouraged whereas growth of backward firms is not as well received on the stock market.Distance to frontier; Strategy; Market value; Innovation; Firm growth

Firm growth and scaling of growth rate variance in multiplant firms

While Gibrat's Law assumes that growth rate variance is independent of size, empirical work has usually found a negative relationship between growth rate variance and firm growth. Using data on French manufacturing firms, we observe a relatively low, but statistically significant, negative relationship between firm size and growth rate variance. Furthermore, we observe that growth rate variance does not decrease monotonically the more plants a firm possesses, which is at odds with a number of theoretical models.

The employment effects of innovation

The issue of technological unemployment receives perennial popular attention. Although there are previous empirical investigations that have focused on the relationship between innovation and employment, the originality of our approach lies in our choice of method. We focus on four 2-digit manufacturing industries that are known for their high patenting activity. We then use Principal Components Analysis to generate a firm-and year-specific "innovativeness" index by extracting the common variance in a firm's patenting and R&D expenditure histories. To begin with, we explore the heterogeneity of firms by using semi-parametric quantile regression. Whilst some firms may reduce employment levels after innovating, others increase employment. We then move on to a weighted least squares (WLS) analysis, which explicitly takes into account the different job-creating potential of firms of different sizes. As a result, we focus on the effect of innovation on total number of jobs, whereas previous studies have focused on the effect of innovation on firm behavior. Indeed, previous studies have typically taken the firm as the unit of analysis, implicity weighting each firm equally according to the principle of "one firm equals one observation". Our results suggest that firm-level innovative activity leads to employment creation that may have been underestimated in previous studies.Technological unemployment, innovation, firm growth, Weighted Least Squares, aggregation, quantile regression.

Innovation and market value: a quantile regression analysis

We construct a new database by matching firm-level Compustat data to NBER patent data, for four 2-digit complex technology sectors. Whilst conventional regression estimators show that the stock market does recognise efforts at innovation, quantile regression analysis adds a new dimension to the literature, suggesting that the influence of innovation on market value varies dramatically across the market value distribution. For firms with a low value of Tobin's q, the stock market will barely recognize their attempts to innovate. For firms with the highest values of Tobin''s q, however, their market value is particularly sensitive to innovative activity.Innovation

Understanding the processes of firm growth - a closer look at serial growth rate correlation

Serial correlation in annual growth rates carries a lot of information on growth processes - it allows us to directly observe firm performance as well as to test hypotheses. Using a 7-year balanced panel of 10 000 French manufacturing firms, we observe that small firms typically are subject to negative correlation of growth rates, whereas larger firms display positive correlation. Furthermore, we find that those small firms that experience extreme positive or negative growth in any one year are unlikely to repeat this performance in the following year.Serial correlation, firm growth, quantile regression.