Compulsory grain delivery, crop prices and the dynamics of crop supply

An intertemporal acreage allocation model that allows for the impact of compulsory grain delivery is developed. Subsequently, an estimable dynamic acreage demand equation is derived, and estimated for a crop using region-level data. Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel data models are used. The elasticity estimates thus obtained suggest that the demand for crop acreage (and hence the supply of crop output) responds negatively to the level of forced grain procurement, positively to output own-price, and negatively to gross returns from alternative crops.

An economic model of the Ethiopian farm household

This paper presents a simple model of an Ethiopian farn household which captures three important aspects of the policy regime characterising the Derg period. These aspects are compulsory grain delivery, rationing in manufactured consumer goods, and rationing in modern farn inputs. The model involves two main innovations with the agricultural household modelling framework. First, a new procedure of analysing the impact of the policy of forced grain procurement is introduced. The procedure enables us to directly characterize the effects of that policy on farm households’ welfare, as well as the production and consumption choices they make. Second, it pulls together various strands of te relevant literature in a simple manner. In particular, it provides a more direct way of determining the welfare effects of rationing, compulsory grain delivery, prices and incomes. Both individual and joint effects can be handled this way. The comparative static properties of the model directly show that forced grain procurement by the state reduces the welfare of farm households and distorts their production choices. The results also indicate that shortages (rationing) in manufactures consumer goods and modern inputs make commodity demands, input demands, and output supplies less price responsive.

Achieving the MDGs – A Note

The material and symbolic importance of these targets make it vital to assess the analytical coherence of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) “project”. In this spirit, this paper highlights complexities and difficulties of the MDG approach. Specifically, it outlines a framework for analysing the MDGs and subsequently discusses measuring progress; achieving and valuing multi-dimensional outcomes; sustainability; devising policies during structural transformation; and implementing policies in a decentralised policy system. These discussions draw attention to limitations of current methods of analysing the MDGs. Indeed, the history of today’s rich countries shows that development is a drawn out, uneven and contradictory process full of reversals and discontinuity. The MDGs, with their ambitious, linear, broad, and essentially ahistorical set of socio-economic goals belie this complexity; contemporary developed countries measured yesterday with today’s MDG yardstick might well have been branded “failures”.Millennium Development Goals(MDGs), development policy, Tinbergen’s rule, structural transformation

Beyond fatalism: An empirical exploration of self-efficacy and aspirations failure in Ethiopia

Fatalism is considered pervasive, especially in many poor communities. In this paper, we explore whether fatalistic beliefs have implications for the attitudes and behavior of poor rural households toward investment in the future. To explore the idea of fatalism, we draw inspiration from theories in psychology focusing on the role of locus of control and self-efficacy and also from the theoretical framework of aspiration failure as developed in recent economic literature. Using survey data from rural Ethiopia, we find evidence of fatalistic beliefs among a substantial group of rural households, as well as indicators consistent with narrow aspirations gap and low self-efficacy. We also find that such beliefs consistently correlate with lower demand for credit, in terms of loan size, repayment horizon, and productive purposes.aspirations, aspirations failure, aspirations gap, aspirations window, fatalism, self-efficacy,

The impact of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme and its linkages:

"This paper assesses the impact of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Nets Programme (PSNP), the largest social protection program in Sub-Saharan Africa outside of South Africa. Using Propensity Score Matching techniques, we find that the program has little impact on participants on average, due in part to transfer levels that fell far below program targets. Beneficiary households that received at least half of the intended transfers experienced a significant improvement in food security by some measures. However, households with access to both the PSNP and packages of agricultural support were more likely to be food secure, to borrow for productive purposes, use improved agricultural technologies, and operate their own nonfarm business activities. For these households, there is no evidence of disincentive effects in terms of labor supply or private transfers. However, estimates show that beneficiaries did not experience faster asset growth as a result of the programs. " from authors' abstractProductive Safety Net Programme, Impact evaluation, food security, Public works, Social protection,

Heterogeneous Impacts Of Cooperatives On Smallholders’ Commercialization Behavior: Evidence From Ethiopia.

This paper examines the impact of marketing cooperatives on smallholder commercialization of cereals using detailed household data in rural Ethiopia. We use the strong government role in promoting the establishment of cooperatives to justify the use of propensity score matching in order to compare households that are cooperative members to similar households in comparable areas without cooperatives. The analysis reveals that while cooperatives obtain higher prices for their members, they are not associated with a significant increase in the overall share of cereal production sold commercially by their members. However, these average results hide considerable heterogeneity in the impact across households. In particular, we find smaller farmers tend reduce their marketed output as a result of higher prices, while the opposite is true for larger farmers. JEL Classification: Q13, O12Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Labor and Human Capital, Marketing, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Smallholders' commercialization through cooperatives: A diagnostic for Ethiopia

"This paper examines the impact of cooperatives on smallholder commercialization of cereals, using detailed household data from rural Ethiopia. We review the involvement of cooperatives, in terms of who participates and where they are located. We then use the strong government role in promoting the establishment of cooperatives to assume that the decision of where to establish a cooperative is largely driven by external considerations, and is thus exogenous to the members themselves justifying the use of propensity-score matching in order to compare households that are cooperative members to similar households in comparable areas without cooperatives. Four conclusions are derived from the analysis. First, despite the spread of cooperatives – they existed in less than 15 percent of districts in 1994 and nearly 35 percent in 2005 – there are important disparities across regions. Within regions, cooperatives tend to be located in areas that already have better access to markets and lower exposure to price and environmental risks. Second, at the household level participation is only 9 percent, with poorer households less likely to participate. Third, while cooperatives obtain higher prices for their members, they are not associated with a significant increase in the overall share of cereal production sold by their members. Fourth, these average results hide considerable heterogeneity in the impact across households. In particular, we find smaller farmers tend to reduce their marketable surplus as a result of higher prices, while the opposite is true for larger farmers." from Authors' AbstractSmallholders, small farms, Marketing, Cooperatives, Commercialization, Cereal crops,

Government policy and dynamic supply response: a study of the compulsory grain delivery system

The impact of government policy on the dynamics of agricultural supply in Ethiopia during the 1980s is explored. Specifically, an intertemporal acreage allocation model that allows for the impact of compulsory grain delivery is developed. Subsequently, an estimable dynamic acreage demand equation is derived, and estimated for a crop using region-level data. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel data models are used. The elasticity estimates thus obtained suggest that the demand for crop acreage (and hence the supply of crop output) responded negatively to the level of forced grain procurement, and positively to output price

Government policy and dynamic supply response: a study of the compulsory grain delivery system

The impact of government policy on the dynamics of agricultural supply in Ethiopia during the 1980s is explored. Specifically, an intertemporal acreage allocation model that allows for the impact of compulsory grain delivery is developed. Subsequently, an estimable dynamic acreage demand equation is derived, and estimated for a crop using region-level data. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel data models are used. The elasticity estimates thus obtained suggest that the demand for crop acreage (and hence the supply of crop output) responded negatively to the level of forced grain procurement, and positively to output price

Client Factors Affect Provider Adherence to Guidelines during First Antenatal Care in Public Health Facilities, Ethiopia: A Multi-Center Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND፡ Timely entry to an antenatal care with a healthcare provider who follows a set of national guidelines is assumed to ensure higher levels of client satisfaction. It is also expected to improve perinatal outcomes. Little is known about the level of adherence of Ethiopian providers to these guidelines. Therefore, this study aims to assess the proportion of clients who received complete (100%) provider adherence to antenatal care guidelines at the first visit and client associated factors in Gondar Town.METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 834 study participants was conducted in public health facilities of Gondar Town in Ethiopia. An 18 point checklist was used to observe provider adherence to the first antenatal care visit guidelines. Descriptive statistics and multivariable binary logistic regression model were done by using STATA 14 software.RESULT: The proportion of clients who received the complete provider’s adherence to the first antenatal care guideline was 32.25% (95% CI: 29.1-35.5). The mean adherence score was 16.78%. Women who had prior history of pregnancy and/or birthrelated complications (AOR = 1.58; 95%CI: 1.04-2.04) and late antenatal care booking at gestational week 16 or greater (AOR =1.45; 95%CI: 1.03-2.03) were significantly associated with clients receiving complete providers’ adherence to the first antenatal guideline.CONCLUSIONS: We found the level of adherence to national antenatal care guidelines during first visit as surprisingly low. When considering to upgrade the guidelines to the actual WHO guideline of eight visits, we recommend that refresher training be provided regularly to help staff understand the importance of following the guidelines as closely as possible. Perhaps, we need to learn more from the health care providers themselves about their reasons for not following the guidelines