Compulsory grain delivery, crop prices and the dynamics of crop supply

Abstract

An intertemporal acreage allocation model that allows for the impact of compulsory grain delivery is developed. Subsequently, an estimable dynamic acreage demand equation is derived, and estimated for a crop using region-level data. Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel data models are used. The elasticity estimates thus obtained suggest that the demand for crop acreage (and hence the supply of crop output) responds negatively to the level of forced grain procurement, positively to output own-price, and negatively to gross returns from alternative crops.