Trading institutions and price discovery: the cash and futures markets for crude oil

We provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This increased volatility in the price of crude oil may reflect information aggregated into the price, an increase the variance of shocks to the price of crude oil, or noise in the futures price that affects the cash price. We present evidence from experiments consistent with the interpretation that information aggregation not feasible in a posted-price market can explain at least part of the increase in variance. This evidence supports the proposition that information not previously aggregated into the cash price for crude oil is at least part of the reason for the greater variability of the cash price after the opening of the futures market and provides at least one example in which a futures market increased the volatility of the cash market, and prices became more efficient.

A Geometrical Test of the Cosmological Energy Contents Using the Lyman-alpha Forest

In this Letter we explore a version of the test of cosmological geometry proposed by Alcock and Paczynski (1979), using observations of the Lyman-alpha forest in the spectra of close quasar pairs. By comparing the correlations in absorption in one quasar spectrum with correlations between the spectra of neighboring quasars one can determine the relation of the redshift distance scale to the angle distance scale at the redshift of the absorbers, $z \sim 2 - 4$. Since this relationship depends on the parameters of the cosmological model, these parameters may be determined using the Lyman-alpha forest. While this test is relatively insensitive to the density parameter $\Omega_m$ in a dust-dominated universe, it is more sensitive to the presence of a matter component with large negative pressure (such as a cosmological constant $\Lambda$) and its equation of state. With only 25 pairs of quasar spectra at angular separations $0.5' - 2'$, one can discriminate between an $\Omega_m = 0.3$ open universe ($\Lambda=0$) and an $\Omega_m = 0.3$ flat ($\Lambda$-dominated) universe at the $4-\sigma$ level. The S/N can be enhanced by considering quasar pairs at smaller angular separations, but requires proper modeling of nonlinear redshift space distortions. Here the correlations and redshift space distortions are modeled using linear theory.Comment: 13 pages, 2 ps figures, submitted to ApJ

Mitochondrial DNA mutations in human degenerative diseases and aging

AbstractA wide variety of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations have recently been identified in degenerative diseases of the brain, heart, skeletal muscle, kidney and endocrine system. Generally, individuals inheriting these mitochondrial diseases are relatively normal in early life, develop symptoms during childhood, mid-life, or old age depending on the severity of the maternally-inherited mtDNA mutation; and then undergo a progressive decline. These novel features of mtDNA disease are proposed to be the product of the high dependence of the target organs on mitochondrial bioenergetics, and the cumulative oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) defect caused by the inherited mtDNA mutation together with the age-related accumulation mtDNA mutations in post-mitotic tissues

Overview of the first Wendelstein 7-X long pulse campaign with fully water-cooled plasma facing components

After a long device enhancement phase, scientific operation resumed in 2022. The main new device components are the water cooling of all plasma facing components and the new water-cooled high heat flux divertor units. Water cooling allowed for the first long-pulse operation campaign. A maximum discharge length of 8 min was achieved with a total heating energy of 1.3 GJ. Safe divertor operation was demonstrated in attached and detached mode. Stable detachment is readily achieved in some magnetic configurations but requires impurity seeding in configurations with small magnetic pitch angle within the edge islands. Progress was made in the characterization of transport mechanisms across edge magnetic islands: Measurement of the potential distribution and flow pattern reveals that the islands are associated with a strong poloidal drift, which leads to rapid convection of energy and particles from the last closed flux surface into the scrape-off layer. Using the upgraded plasma heating systems, advanced heating scenarios were developed, which provide improved energy confinement comparable to the scenario, in which the record triple product for stellarators was achieved in the previous operation campaign. However, a magnetic configuration-dependent critical heating power limit of the electron cyclotron resonance heating was observed. Exceeding the respective power limit leads to a degradation of the confinement

Overview of the first Wendelstein 7-X long pulse campaign with fully water-cooled plasma facing components

after a long device enhancement phase, scientific operation resumed in 2022. The main new device components are the water cooling of all plasma facing components and the new water-cooled high heat flux divertor units. Water cooling allowed for the first long-pulse operation campaign. A maximum discharge length of 8 min was achieved with a total heating energy of 1.3 GJ. Safe divertor operation was demonstrated in attached and detached mode. Stable detachment is readily achieved in some magnetic configurations but requires impurity seeding in configurations with small magnetic pitch angle within the edge islands. Progress was made in the characterization of transport mechanisms across edge magnetic islands: Measurement of the potential distribution and flow pattern reveals that the islands are associated with a strong poloidal drift, which leads to rapid convection of energy and particles from the last closed flux surface into the scrape-off layer. Using the upgraded plasma heating systems, advanced heating scenarios were developed, which provide improved energy confinement comparable to the scenario, in which the record triple product for stellarators was achieved in the previous operation campaign. However, a magnetic configuration-dependent critical heating power limit of the electron cyclotron resonance heating was observed. Exceeding the respective power limit leads to a degradation of the confinement

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

SummaryBackground Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatoryactions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospitalwith COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients wererandomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once perday by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatmentgroups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment andwere twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants andlocal study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to theoutcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treatpopulation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) wereeligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomlyallocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall,561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days(rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days(rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, nosignificant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilationor death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24).Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or otherprespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restrictedto patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research