A Toolkit to assess health needs for congenital disorders in low- and middle-income countries: an instrument for public health action.

BACKGROUND: In 2010 the World Health Assembly called for action to improve the care and prevention of congenital disorders, noting that technical guidance would be required for this task, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Responding to this call, we have developed a freely available web-accessible Toolkit for assessing health needs for congenital disorders. METHODS: Materials for the Toolkit website (http://toolkit.phgfoundation.org) were prepared by an iterative process of writing, discussion and modification by the project team, with advice from external experts. A customized database was developed using epidemiological, demographic, socio-economic and health-services data from a range of validated sources. Document-processing and data integration software combines data from the database with a template to generate topic- and country-specific Calculator documents for quantitative analysis. RESULTS: The Toolkit guides users through selection of topics (including both clinical conditions and relevant health services), assembly and evaluation of qualitative and quantitative information, assessment of the potential effects of selected interventions, and planning and prioritization of actions to reduce the risk or prevalence of congenital disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The Toolkit enables users without epidemiological or public health expertise to undertake health needs assessment as a prerequisite for strategic planning in relation to congenital disorders in their country or region

Value-at-risk forecasting of the CARBS Indices

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to use calibrated univariate GARCH family models to forecast volatility and value at risk (VaR) of the CARBS indices and a global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) constructed using the CARBS equity indices. the reliability of the different volatility forecasts are tested using the mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean squared error (MSE). The rolling forecast of VaR is tested using a back-testing procedure. The results indicate that the use of a rolling forecast from a GARCH model when estimating VaR for the CARBS indices and the GMVP is not a reliable method

Lambda Polarization in Polarized Proton-Proton Collisions at RHIC

We discuss Lambda polarization in semi-inclusive proton-proton collisions, with one of the protons longitudinally polarized. The hyperfine interaction responsible for the $\Delta$-$N$ and $\Sigma$-$\Lambda$ mass splittings gives rise to flavor asymmetric fragmentation functions and to sizable polarized non-strange fragmentation functions. We predict large positive Lambda polarization in polarized proton-proton collisions at large rapidities of the produced Lambda, while other models, based on SU(3) flavor symmetric fragmentation functions, predict zero or negative Lambda polarization. The effect of $\Sigma^0$ and $\Sigma^*$ decays is also discussed. Forthcoming experiments at RHIC will be able to differentiate between these predictions.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure

Measurement of Spin Transfer Observables in Antiproton-Proton -> Antilambda-Lambda at 1.637 GeV/c

Spin transfer observables for the strangeness-production reaction Antiproton-Proton -> Antilambda-Lambda have been measured by the PS185 collaboration using a transversely-polarized frozen-spin target with an antiproton beam momentum of 1.637 GeV/c at the Low Energy Antiproton Ring at CERN. This measurement investigates observables for which current models of the reaction near threshold make significantly differing predictions. Those models are in good agreement with existing measurements performed with unpolarized particles in the initial state. Theoretical attention has focused on the fact that these models produce conflicting predictions for the spin-transfer observables D_{nn} and K_{nn}, which are measurable only with polarized target or beam. Results presented here for D_{nn} and K_{nn} are found to be in disagreement with predictions from existing models. These results also underscore the importance of singlet-state production at backward angles, while current models predict complete or near-complete triplet-state dominance.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Parton Distributions for the Octet and Decuplet Baryons

We calculate the parton distributions for both polarized and unpolarized octet and decuplet baryons, using the MIT bag, dressed by mesons. We show that the hyperfine interaction responsible for the $\Delta - N$ and $\Sigma^0 - \Lambda$ splittings leads to large deviations from SU(3) and SU(6) predictions. For the $\Lambda$ we find significant polarized, non-strange parton distributions which lead to a sizable $\Lambda$ polarization in polarized, semi-inclusive $ep$ scattering. We also discuss the flavour symmetry violation arising from the meson-cloud associated with the chiral structure of baryons.Comment: 29 pages, 15 figure

Illegal Killing of Nongame Wildlife and Recreational Shooting in Conservation Areas

Illegal killing of nongame wildlife is a global yet poorly documented problem. The prevalence and ecological consequences of illegal killing are often underestimated or completely unknown. We review the practice of legal recreational shooting and present data gathered from telemetry, surveys, and observations on its association with illegal killing of wildlife (birds and snakes) within conservation areas in Idaho, USA. In total, 33% of telemetered long‐billed curlews (Numenius americanus) and 59% of other bird carcasses found with known cause of death (or 32% of total) were illegally shot. Analysis of spatial distributions of illegal and legal shooting is consistent with birds being shot illegally in the course of otherwise legal recreational shooting, but snakes being intentionally sought out and targeted elsewhere, in locations where they congregate. Preliminary public surveys indicate that most recreational shooters find abhorrent the practice of illegal killing of wildlife. Viewed through this lens, our data may imply only a small fraction of recreational shooters is responsible for this activity. This study highlights a poorly known conservation problem that could have broad implications for some species and populations of wildlife

Structure and Production of Lambda Baryons

We discuss the quark parton structure of the $\Lambda$ baryon and the fragmentation of quarks into $\Lambda$ baryons. We show that the hyperfine interaction, responsible for the $\Delta$-$N$ and $\Sigma^0$-$\Lambda$ mass splittings, leads not only to sizeable SU(3) and SU(6) symmetry breaking in the quark distributions of the $\Lambda$, but also to significant polarized non-strange quark distributions. The same arguments suggest flavor asymmetric quark fragmentation functions and non-zero polarized non-strange quark fragmentation functions. The calculated fragmentation functions give a good description of all measured observables. We predict significant positive $\Lambda$ polarization in semi-inclusive DIS experiments while models based on SU(3) flavor symmetry predict zero or negative $\Lambda$ polarization. Our approach also provides a natural explanation for the dependence of the maximum of the $\xi=\ln(1/z)$ spectrum on the mass of the particles produced in $e^+e^-$ annihilation.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, minor change

Semi-Classical Description of Antiproton Capture on Atomic Helium

A semi-classical, many-body atomic model incorporating a momentum-dependent Heisenberg core to stabilize atomic electrons is used to study antiproton capture on Helium. Details of the antiproton collisions leading to eventual capture are presented, including the energy and angular momentum states of incident antiprotons which result in capture via single or double electron ionization, i.e. into [He$^{++}\,\bar p$ or He$^{+}\,\bar p$], and the distribution of energy and angular momentum states following the Auger cascade. These final states are discussed in light of recently reported, anomalously long-lived antiproton states observed in liquid He.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures may be obtained from authors, Revte