Combining heterogeneous classifiers for stock selection

Combining unbiased forecasts of continuous variables necessarily reduces the error variance below that of the median individual forecast. However, this does not necessarily hold for forecasts of discrete variables, or where the costs of errors are not directly related to the error variance. This paper investigates empirically the benefits of combining forecasts of outperforming shares, based on five linear and nonlinear statistical classification techniques, including neural network and recursive partitioning methods. We find that simple “Majority Voting” improves accuracy and profitability only marginally. Much greater gains come from applying the “Unanimity Principle”, whereby a share is not held in the high-performing portfolio unless all classifiers agree

The patriotism of gentlemen with red hair: European Jews and the liberal state, 1789–1939

European Jewish history from 1789–1939 supports the view that construction of national identities even in secular liberal states was determined not only by modern considerations alone but also by ancient patterns of thought, behaviour and prejudice. Emancipation stimulated unprecedented patriotism, especially in wartime, as Jews strove to prove loyalty to their countries of citizenship. During World War I, even Zionists split along national lines, as did families and friends. Jewish patriotism was interchangeable with nationalism inasmuch as Jews identified themselves with national cultures. Although emancipation implied acceptance and an end to anti-Jewish prejudice in the modern liberal state, the kaleidoscopic variety of Jewish patriotism throughout Europe inadvertently undermined the idea of national identity and often provoked anti-Semitism. Even as loyal citizens of separate states, the Jews, however scattered, disunited and diverse, were made to feel, often unwillingly, that they were one people in exile

Broad-Spectrum Matrix Metalloproteinase Inhibition Curbs Inflammation and Liver Injury but Aggravates Experimental Liver Fibrosis in Mice

Background Liver fibrosis is characterized by excessive synthesis of extracellular matrix proteins, which prevails over their enzymatic degradation, primarily by matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). The effect of pharmacological MMP inhibition on fibrogenesis, however, is largely unexplored. Inflammation is considered a prerequisite and important co-contributor to fibrosis and is, in part, mediated by tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α-converting enzyme (TACE). We hypothesized that treatment with a broad-spectrum MMP and TACE-inhibitor (Marimastat) would ameliorate injury and inflammation, leading to decreased fibrogenesis during repeated hepatotoxin-induced liver injury.Methodology/Principal Findings Liver fibrosis was induced in mice by repeated carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) administration, during which the mice received either Marimastat or vehicle twice daily. A single dose of CCl4was administered to investigate acute liver injury in mice pretreated with Marimastat, mice deficient in Mmp9, or mice deficient in both TNF-α receptors. Liver injury was quantified by alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels and confirmed by histology. Hepatic collagen was determined as hydroxyproline, and expression of fibrogenesis and fibrolysis-related transcripts was determined by quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Marimastat-treated animals demonstrated significantly attenuated liver injury and inflammation but a 25% increase in collagen deposition. Transcripts related to fibrogenesis were significantly less upregulated compared to vehicle-treated animals, while MMP expression and activity analysis revealed efficient pharmacologic MMP-inhibition and decreased fibrolysis following Marimastat treatment. Marimastat pre-treatment significantly attenuated liver injury following acute CCl4-administration, whereas Mmp9 deficient animals demonstrated no protection. Mice deficient in both TNF-α receptors exhibited an 80% reduction of serum ALT, confirming the hepatoprotective effects of Marimastat via the TNF-signaling pathway.Conclusions/Significance Inhibition of MMP and TACE activity with Marimastat during chronic CCl4administration counterbalanced any beneficial anti-inflammatory effect, resulting in a positive balance of collagen deposition. Since effective inhibition of MMPs accelerates fibrosis progression, MMP inhibitors should be used with caution in patients with chronic liver diseases