Characterising Graduate Unemployment in Nigeria as Education-job Mismatch Problem

The study investigates education-job mismatch in the graduate segment of the nation’s labour market, which has had to contend with increasing graduate unemployment in an environment that is inundated with frequent adverts for vacancies across graduate disciplines. Variance of relative unemployment and proportional index of unemployed and employed are used to explain the mismatch from 2012 to 2016. Mismatch is found to be low but increasing in the entire labour market. Aggregate unemployment rate was structurally dependent on unemployment rates among those without education and those who had secondary education while the rate was cyclically affected by unemployment rates in the ranks of those who had post-secondary education (graduates) and those who underwent less than primary education. The results of the proportional index analysis show that the graduates of Medical Sciences, Social Sciences/Business Studies and Engineering would not experience unemployment, while graduates with specialisations in Education, Law, Arts and Sciences were most likely to be unemployed in the Nigerian labour market. A number of reasons are offered to explain the plausibility of these results, while some solutions are put forward to address unemployment among graduates of the latter set of disciplines

A Small Macroeconometric Model of Nigeria

This study presents a small macroeconometric model to forecast and simulate policy options for the Nigerian economy. The model consists of ten behavioural equations and five identities made up of ten endogenous variables and thirteen exogenous variables. Autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) framework is used to estimate the behavioural equations using annual time-series data for the period 1981-2014. The predictive ability of the model is evaluated and found to be satisfactory as the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and Theil inequality coefficient are considerably small. Policy simulations to quantify the impact of shocks to government expenditure, exchange rate and crude-oil price on the economy are analysed. The results shows that a positive shock in government expenditure raises aggregate output, total exports, total import, gross fixed capital formation, exchange rate, consumption, and inflation rate while interest rate falls; a negative shock to exchange rate has a negative effect on gross fixed capital formation and a positive effect on aggregate national output, consumer price level, interest rate, consumption, total export and total imports; and a negative shock in oil prices results in an increase in total imports, total exports, consumption, exchange rate, gross fixed capital formation and aggregate national output. Hence, the study recommends that the monetary authorities employ a managed-floating exchange rate to address the volatility in exchange rate and government should formulate and implement policies aimed at diversifying the economy to cushion the shocks that result from oil price volatility in the international market

Dynamic Nexus between Government Revenues and Expenditures in Nigeria: Evidence from Asymmetric Causality and Cointegration Methods

The incessant fiscal deficit being experienced in different countries across the world has raised concerns about the ability of government to properly manage its revenues and expenditures. This has necessitated a flurry of studies on the relationship between government revenues and government expenditures over time. However, empirical evidence appears to be mixed, even within a country, depending on the methodological approaches adopted by each researcher. In the light of this, this study examines the asymmetric causality and cointegration between revenues and expenditures using aggregated and disaggregated data. The results of linear causality tests of Granger (1969) and Toda-Yamamoto (1995) support fiscal synchronisation hypothesis while those of nonlinear causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) support revenue-spending hypothesis. The results further show the existence of asymmetric cointegration between revenues and expenditures in the short-run and the long-run. The final results obtained from the decomposition of revenues into the positive and negative components show that positive change in revenues has a positive effect on expenditures and vice versa for a negative change in revenues. Based on these findings, the panacea proposed to over-reliance in revenues, particularly oil revenues as a determinant of government expenditures, is the proper management of oil revenues and other sources of revenues. The government would also need to diversify the economy so that more revenues could be available to it from other sources to finance its expenditures

Dynamic Nexus between Government Revenues and Expenditures in Nigeria: Evidence from Asymmetric Causality and Cointegration Methods

The incessant fiscal deficit being experienced in different countries across the world has raised concerns about the ability of government to properly manage its revenues and expenditures. This has necessitated a flurry of studies on the relationship between government revenues and government expenditures over time. However, empirical evidence appears to be mixed, even within a country, depending on the methodological approaches adopted by each researcher. In the light of this, this study examines the asymmetric causality and cointegration between revenues and expenditures using aggregated and disaggregated data. The results of linear causality tests of Granger (1969) and Toda-Yamamoto (1995) support fiscal synchronisation hypothesis while those of nonlinear causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) support revenue-spending hypothesis. The results further show the existence of asymmetric cointegration between revenues and expenditures in the short-run and the long-run. The final results obtained from the decomposition of revenues into the positive and negative components show that positive change in revenues has a positive effect on expenditures and vice versa for a negative change in revenues. Based on these findings, the panacea proposed to over-reliance in revenues, particularly oil revenues as a determinant of government expenditures, is the proper management of oil revenues and other sources of revenues. The government would also need to diversify the economy so that more revenues could be available to it from other sources to finance its expenditures

Firm Financial Status and Investment Behaviour: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria

The study examines firm’s investment behaviour sensitivity to cash flow before, during and after the recent global financial crisis using the data of 28 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Market during the period from 2001 to 2012. The contribution of the study to the existing literature rests on using financial crisis as basis for classifying firms as either financially constrained or unconstrained. Employing the panel data and instrumental variable estimation techniques, the study finds that firms’ investment behaviour sensitivity to cash flow was higher during the financial crisis than before or after the financial crisis. In other words, Nigerian firms were highly financially constrained during the last financial crisis

ICT sector, output and employment generation in Nigeria: Input-output approach

This study assesses the contributions of ICT sector to the Nigerian economy after the reform of the sector in 2001. Using the input-output table for 2001, 2006 and 2011, the study specifically examines the output and employment contributions of ICT sector to sectors of the economy including the ICT sector itself. The study computes the contributions along the lines of direct, indirect and induced output and employment effects of the ICT sector’s activity. The study finds that ICT sector has contributed some output and employment the economy through its linkage with other sectors. Among the sectors, services sector seems to benefit much more from ICT sector reform than any other sector. While most of the benefits accrue to other sectors come from the induced effects of ICT reform, the benefits that accrue to ICT sector itself come mainly from the indirect effects that arise from the inter-sectoral linkages through the buying and selling of ICT sector products, services and contracts. Based on these findings, we propose that for the economy to continue to benefit from ICT sector growth and expansion, all stakeholders in the sector and the government through the Ministry of Communication and Nigerian Communication Commission should work out policies that would create enabling environment for the sector to thrive more efficiently and also to provide an effective framework that could further integrate the ICT sector with the rest of the sector in the economy

Effect of Rice Trade Policy on Household Welfare in Nigeria

Inconsistence in the use of trade policy reform has characterized Nigeria’s rice imports over the years and little is known about the welfare implications of these reforms on the Nigerian households. This study uses a static computable general equilibrium model to assess the effect of rice trade policies of an import ban, 80% tariff increase, 5% tariff reduction and 0% rice import tariff on the welfare of households in the country. Simulation results show that no rice trade policy improved social welfare, although producing households’ incomes increased under protectionist policies of ban and tariff increase. All households lost welfare with 0% tariff while only the major producing and consuming households lost welfare with the 5% reduction in tariffs. The least loss to social welfare also occurred in this scenario, hence this policy was recommended for adoption in order to minimize welfare losses to households. Keywords: Rice; trade policy; tariff; households; welfare; computable general equilibrium

What nexus exists between exchange rate and trade balance? The case of Nigeria vis-à-vis UK, US and Hong Kong

The role of exchange rate movements in determining the trading position of a country and the ultimate welfare of its people vis-à-vis its trading partners is enormous. Consequently, this study is conducted to examine the nature of the trading relationship between Nigeria and its trading partners in three continents-North America, Europe and Asia. The study specifically focuses on how the fluctuation of naira vis-à-vis the pound sterling, dollar and Yuan affects Nigeria's trading position in relation to UK, US and Hong Kong (China). Quarterly data that span the period from 1981 to 2015 were used and linear and Non-linear ARDL estimation techniques were deployed to prove the existence of linear and nonlinear J-Curve. The findings, based on linear ARDL, show no proof of J-Curve in all the models, however, cointegration exists between the trade balance and the exchange rate dynamics. In non-linear ARDL, the existence of J-Curve is only observed in Nigeria-Hong Kong model. However, the findings show that there is both the existence of cointegration and the short-run and the long-run asymmetric nexus between exchange rate dynamics and trade balance in all the models. The overarching implication of the finding is that devaluation of Naira will not improve Nigeria’s trading position vis-à-vis trading partners considered

Characterising Graduate Unemployment in Nigeria as Education-job Mismatch Problem

The study investigates education-job mismatch in the graduate segment of the nation’s labour market, which has had to contend with increasing graduate unemployment in an environment that is inundated with frequent adverts for vacancies across graduate disciplines. Variance of relative unemployment and proportional index of unemployed and employed are used to explain the mismatch from 2012 to 2016. Mismatch is found to be low but increasing in the entire labour market. Aggregate unemployment rate was structurally dependent on unemployment rates among those without education and those who had secondary education while the rate was cyclically affected by unemployment rates in the ranks of those who had post-secondary education (graduates) and those who underwent less than primary education. The results of the proportional index analysis show that the graduates of Medical Sciences, Social Sciences/Business Studies and Engineering would not experience unemployment, while graduates with specialisations in Education, Law, Arts and Sciences were most likely to be unemployed in the Nigerian labour market. A number of reasons are offered to explain the plausibility of these results, while some solutions are put forward to address unemployment among graduates of the latter set of disciplines