Shifting to tenofovir use in first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults in public sector treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa

The success of scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is in large part due to the introduction of a “public health approach” to access advocated by the World Health Organization (WHO) which emphasized standardized treatment regimens that could be purchased in large quantities and delivered at scale. In 2010 the WHO updated their global HIV treatment guidelines recommending the substitution of stavudine with tenofovir (both of which are members of the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) class of drugs) in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). Given the size of treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa, changing the NRTI used in first-line therapy for HIV could have a substantial impact on treatment outcomes. We conducted three prospective cohort studies using clinical datasets from several sub-Saharan African countries to answer questions surrounding the impacts of exposure to tenofovir in first-line therapy. The first study examines the frequency of stavudine use and single-drug substitutions (substituting the NRTI in first-line ART) in three regions in sub-Saharan Africa by calendar year, 2004–2014. We found a total of 33,441 (8.9%; 95% CI: 8.7–8.9%) single-drug substitutions occurred among 377,656 patients in the first 24 months on ART, close to 40% of which were amongst patients on stavudine. The decrease in single-drug substitutions corresponded with the phasing out of stavudine. We saw an 80% reduction in the risk of single-drug substitutions when comparing tenofovir to stavudine and close to a 70% reduction in the risk when comparing zidovudine to stavudine. The second study uses a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impact of national HIV treatment guideline changes in South Africa and Zambia recommending tenofovir in first-line ART on treatment outcomes. We found that updated WHO guidelines increased the proportion of patients initiating tenofovir (risk difference (RD) (South Africa): 81%; 95% CI: 73%, 89%; RD (Zambia): 42%; 95% CI: 38%, 45%). Intent to treat estimates showed a decrease in single-drug substitutions in South Africa (RD: -15%; 95% CI: -18%, -12%) and Zambia (RD: -2.0%; 95% CI: -3.6%, -0.3%). In both countries, there was no effect on mortality, attrition or viral load failure (South Africa only). The third study investigates the effect of the 2012 tenofovir stock shortage in South Africa on provider and patient level outcomes, using data from four public-sector Right to Care clinics, two of which experienced a tenofovir stock shortage and two that did not. While imprecise, our results suggest a potential shift in how providers managed patients during the period of the shortage, mainly, a noticeable decrease in the average number of days between visits during the shortage compare to before or after at all four clinics and a significant difference in the proportion of patients missing visits. Difference-in-difference regression results showed a small, but significant, increase in the risk of missed visits during the shortage compared to after (RD: 1.2%; 95% CI: 0.5%, 2.0%), mainly driven by ACTs clinic. No significant difference was seen in other outcomes. Great strides have been made to extend access to ART as well as increase the quality of the services provided to patients in sub-Saharan Africa. Continued access to and a consistent supply of tenofovir in this setting is necessary for patients to receive drugs that are comparable to those used for HIV treatment in high-income countries, as we show that phasing out of stavudine and for either zidovudine or tenofovir potentially reduced toxicities and potentially improved quality of life in multiple regions throughout sub-Saharan Africa. While we show little effect on treatment outcomes when comparing patients accessing care and treatment during the shortage of tenofovir compared to those that did not, this most likely reflects the clinics’ ability to offset the crisis by continuing to initiate newly diagnosed and eligible patients on treatment and keep treatment experienced patients on their current regimen

Systematic differences between Cochrane and non-Cochrane meta-analyses on the same topic: a matched pair analysis

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses conducted via the Cochrane Collaboration adhere to strict methodological and reporting standards aiming to minimize bias, maximize transparency/reproducibility, and improve the accuracy of summarized data. Whether this results in differences in the results reported by meta-analyses on the same topic conducted outside the Cochrane Collaboration is an open question. METHODS: We conducted a matched-pair analysis with individual meta-analyses as the unit of analysis, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews. Using meta-analyses from the cardiovascular literature, we identified pairs that matched on intervention and outcome. The pairs were contrasted in terms of how frequently results disagreed between the Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews, whether effect sizes and statistical precision differed systematically, and how these differences related to the frequency of secondary citations of those reviews. RESULTS: Our search yielded 40 matched pairs of reviews. The two sets were similar in terms of which was first to publication, how many studies were included, and average sample sizes. The paired reviews included a total of 344 individual clinical trials: 111 (32.3%) studies were included only in a Cochrane review, 104 (30.2%) only in a non-Cochrane review, and 129 (37.5%) in both. Stated another way, 62.5% of studies were only included in one or the other meta-analytic literature. Overall, 37.5% of pairs had discrepant results. The most common involved shifts in the width of 95% confidence intervals that would yield a different statistical interpretation of the significance of results (7 pairs). Additionally, 20% differed in the direction of the summary effect size (5 pairs) or reported greater than a 2-fold difference in its magnitude (3 pairs). Non-Cochrane reviews reported significantly higher effect sizes (P < 0.001) and lower precision (P < 0.001) than matched Cochrane reviews. Reviews reporting an effect size at least 2-fold greater than their matched pair were cited more frequently. CONCLUSIONS: Though results between topic-matched Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews were quite similar, discrepant results were frequent, and the overlap of included studies was surprisingly low. Non-Cochrane reviews report larger effect sizes with lower precision than Cochrane reviews, indicating systematic differences, likely reflective of methodology, between the two types of reviews that could generate different interpretations of the interventions under question

Systematic differences between Cochrane and non-Cochrane meta-analyses on the same topic: a matched pair analysis

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses conducted via the Cochrane Collaboration adhere to strict methodological and reporting standards aiming to minimize bias, maximize transparency/reproducibility, and improve the accuracy of summarized data. Whether this results in differences in the results reported by meta-analyses on the same topic conducted outside the Cochrane Collaboration is an open question. METHODS: We conducted a matched-pair analysis with individual meta-analyses as the unit of analysis, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews. Using meta-analyses from the cardiovascular literature, we identified pairs that matched on intervention and outcome. The pairs were contrasted in terms of how frequently results disagreed between the Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews, whether effect sizes and statistical precision differed systematically, and how these differences related to the frequency of secondary citations of those reviews. RESULTS: Our search yielded 40 matched pairs of reviews. The two sets were similar in terms of which was first to publication, how many studies were included, and average sample sizes. The paired reviews included a total of 344 individual clinical trials: 111 (32.3%) studies were included only in a Cochrane review, 104 (30.2%) only in a non-Cochrane review, and 129 (37.5%) in both. Stated another way, 62.5% of studies were only included in one or the other meta-analytic literature. Overall, 37.5% of pairs had discrepant results. The most common involved shifts in the width of 95% confidence intervals that would yield a different statistical interpretation of the significance of results (7 pairs). Additionally, 20% differed in the direction of the summary effect size (5 pairs) or reported greater than a 2-fold difference in its magnitude (3 pairs). Non-Cochrane reviews reported significantly higher effect sizes (P < 0.001) and lower precision (P < 0.001) than matched Cochrane reviews. Reviews reporting an effect size at least 2-fold greater than their matched pair were cited more frequently. CONCLUSIONS: Though results between topic-matched Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews were quite similar, discrepant results were frequent, and the overlap of included studies was surprisingly low. Non-Cochrane reviews report larger effect sizes with lower precision than Cochrane reviews, indicating systematic differences, likely reflective of methodology, between the two types of reviews that could generate different interpretations of the interventions under question

Research report: "Using what you have to get what you want": Vulnerability to HIV and prevention needs of female post‐secondary students engaged in transactional sex in Kumasi, Ghana

This study was implemented by Boston University in collaboration with the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology with support from the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the U.S. Agency for International Development under Project SEARCH Task Order No. GHH‐I‐00‐07‐00023‐00, beginning August 27, 2010. The content and views expressed here are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or policy of USAID or the U.S. Government.This report presents findings from a qualitative study examining vulnerability to HIV of female post‐secondary students engaged in transactional sex in Kumasi, Ghana and their prevention needs. The study was conducted by Boston University’s Center for Global and Health and Development (CGHD) and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST) as part of Project SEARCH funded by the United States Agency for International Development Ghana. Participants were recruited from five post‐secondary institutions in the greater Kumasi area. Our objective is to provide academic institutions, the Ghana AIDS Commission (GAC), the National AIDS Control Program, donors, and other stakeholders with rich data to inform research and programmatic efforts in Kumasi specifically, as well as academic institutions in general. We set out to document what forms of transactional sex female students are engaging in, who their partners are, and what motivates them to participate. We asked students about the individual and structural vulnerabilities for HIV reported by female post‐secondary students involved in transactional sex and what their prevention needs are. We also interviewed a small sample of faculty, residence hall matrons, and hotel staff to get their perspective on the behavior of female students practicing transactional sex that might put them at risk for HIV. The findings of this study can be used as well to inform the design of future studies of young women engaging in transactional sex in Ghana. With such limited understanding of HIV transmission among young female post‐secondary students engaged in transactional sex, research is needed to determine how this group contributes to the overall HIV epidemic. The Ghana AIDS Commission has recognized the need for further research among communities engaged in less well‐defined risky sex practices in the National Strategic Plan for Most‐at – Risk Populations (MARP) 2011‐2015.4 This study attempts to fill in gaps in the research regarding transactional sex, taking into account the complexities and nuances of the practice, in addition to examining the needs of female students for targeted HIV prevention programs.Support from the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the U.S. Agency for International Development under Project SEARCH Task Order No. GHH‐I‐00‐07‐00023‐00, beginning August 27, 201

Has the phasing out of stavudine in accordance with changes in WHO guidelines led to a decrease in single-drug substitutions in first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa?

This version is the Accepted Manuscript and is published in final edited form as: AIDS. 2017 January 02; 31(1): 147–157. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000001307OBJECTIVE: We assessed the relationship between phasing out stavudine in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in accordance with WHO 2010 policy and single-drug substitutions (SDS) (substituting the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor in first-line ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN: Prospective cohort analysis (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Multiregional) including ART-naive, HIV-infected patients aged at least 16 years, initiating ART between January 2005 and December 2012. Before April 2010 (July 2007 in Zambia) national guidelines called for patients to initiate stavudine-based or zidovudine-based regimen, whereas thereafter tenofovir or zidovudine replaced stavudine in first-line ART. METHODS: We evaluated the frequency of stavudine use and SDS by calendar year 2004-2014. Competing risk regression was used to assess the association between nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor use and SDS in the first 24 months on ART. RESULTS: In all, 33 441 (8.9%; 95% confience interval 8.7-8.9%) SDS occurred among 377 656 patients in the first 24 months on ART, close to 40% of which were amongst patients on stavudine. The decrease in SDS corresponded with the phasing out of stavudine. Competing risks regression models showed that patients on tenofovir were 20-95% less likely to require a SDS than patients on stavudine, whereas patients on zidovudine had a 75-85% decrease in the hazards of SDS when compared to stavudine. CONCLUSION: The decline in SDS in the first 24 months on treatment appears to be associated with phasing out stavudine for zidovudine or tenofovir in first-line ART in our study. Further efforts to decrease the cost of tenofovir and zidovudine for use in this setting is warranted to substitute all patients still receiving stavudine

Restrictive ID policies: implications for health equity

We wish to thank Synod Community Services for their critical work to develop, support, and implement a local government-issued ID in Washtenaw County, MI. We also thank Yousef Rabhi of the Michigan House of Representatives and Janelle Fa'aola of the Washtenaw ID Task Force, Lawrence Kestenbaum of the Washtenaw County Clerk's Office, Sherriff Jerry Clayton of the Washtenaw County Sherriff's Office, and the Washtenaw ID Task Force for their tireless commitment to developing and supporting the successful implementation of the Washtenaw ID. Additionally, we thank Vicenta Vargas and Skye Hillier for their contributions to the Washtenaw ID evaluation. We thank the Curtis Center for Research and Evaluation at the University of Michigan School of Social Work, the National Center for Institutional Diversity at the University of Michigan, and the University of California-Irvine Department of Chicano/Latino Studies and Program in Public Health for their support of the Washtenaw ID community-academic research partnership. Finally, we thank the reviewers for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript. (Curtis Center for Research and Evaluation at the University of Michigan School of Social Work; National Center for Institutional Diversity at the University of Michigan; University of California-Irvine Department of Chicano/Latino Studies; Program in Public Health)https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10903-017-0579-3.pdfPublished versio

Validation of Non-Traditional Approaches to Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) Volume Estimation

For this validation study, NREL compiled traffic volume data from permanent traffic counters at over 500 locations across the U.S. These data were used to validate annual average daily traffic (AADT) estimates developed by Streetlight Data using passive data sources. The analysis revealed a strong correlation between estimates derived from passive sources and the permanent counters. However, statistical differences were observed, and deviations from ground truth may be unacceptable for some applications. Toll locations were particularly prone to high errors, possibly due to complex geometry. While the validation sheds light on the utility of AADT estimation from passive sources, its findings were limited by a lack of permanent counter data. It is possible that an analysis using a larger sample size could result in more robust findings

Health systems performance for hypertension control using a cascade of care approach in South Africa, 2011–2017

Hypertension is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality. In South Africa, the government has employed a whole systems approach to address the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. We used a novel incident care cascade approach to measure changes in the South African health system's ability to manage hypertension between 2011 and 2017. We used data from Waves 1-5 of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) to estimate trends in the hypertension care cascade and unmet treatment need across four successive cohorts with incident hypertension. We used a negative binomial regression to identify factors that may predict higher rates of hypertension control, controlling for socio-demographic and healthcare factors. In 2011, 19.6% (95%CI 14.2, 26.2) of individuals with incident hypertension were diagnosed, 15.4% (95%CI 10.8, 21.4) were on treatment and 7.1% had controlled blood pressure. By 2017, the proportion of individuals with diagnosed incident hypertension had increased to 24.4% (95%CI 15.9, 35.4). Increases in treatment (23.3%, 95%CI 15.0, 34.3) and control (22.1%, 95%CI 14.1, 33.0) were also observed, translating to a decrease in unmet need for hypertension care from 92.9% in 2011 to 77.9% in 2017. Multivariable regression showed that participants with incident hypertension in 2017 were 3.01 (95%CI 1.77, 5.13) times more likely to have a controlled blood pressure compared to those in 2011. Our data show that while substantial improvements in the hypertension care cascade occurred between 2011 and 2017, a large burden of unmet need remains. The greatest losses in the incident hypertension care cascades came before diagnosis. Nevertheless, whole system programming will be needed to sufficiently address significant morbidity and mortality related to having an elevated blood pressure

Treatment Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Shifting Management of Stable ART Patients to Nurses in South Africa: An Observational Cohort

Lawrence Long and colleagues report that “down-referring” stable HIV patients from a doctor-managed, hospital-based ART clinic to a nurse-managed primary health facility provides good health outcomes and cost-effective treatment for patients

Uptake of same-day initiation of HIV treatment among adult men and women in Malawi, South Africa, and Zambia: the SPRINT retrospective cohort study [version 1; peer review: 4 approved with reservations]

Background: Since 2017 global guidelines have recommended “same-day initiation” (SDI) of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for patients considered ready for treatment on the day of HIV diagnosis. Many countries have incorporated a SDI option into national guidelines, but SDI uptake is not well documented. We estimated average time to ART initiation at 12 public healthcare facilities in Malawi, five in South Africa, and 12 in Zambia. Methods: We sequentially enrolled patients eligible to start ART between January 2018 and June 2019 and reviewed their medical records from the point of HIV diagnosis or first HIV-related interaction with the clinic to the earlier date of treatment initiation or 6 months. We estimated the proportion of patients initiating ART on the same day or within 7, 14, 30, or 180 days of baseline. Results: We enrolled 826 patients in Malawi, 534 in South Africa, and 1,984 in Zambia. Overall, 88% of patients in Malawi, 57% in South Africa, and 91% in Zambia were offered and accepted SDI. In Malawi, most who did not receive SDI had not initiated ART ≤6 months. In South Africa, an additional 13% initiated ≤1 week, but 21% had no record of initiation ≤6 months. Among those who did initiate within 6 months in Zambia, most started ≤1 week. There were no major differences by sex. WHO Stage III/IV and tuberculosis symptoms were associated with delays in ART initiation. Conclusions: As of 2020, SDI of ART was widespread, if not nearly universal, in Malawi and Zambia but considerably less common in South Africa. Limitations of the study include pre-COVID-19 data that do not reflect pandemic adaptations and potentially missing data for Zambia. South Africa may be able to increase overall ART coverage by reducing numbers of patients who do not initiate ≤6 months. Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04468399; NCT04170374; NCT04470011)