Seat Imbalance in Provincial Elections Since 1900: A Quantitative Explanation

The focus of this research note is on the causes of imbalanced, if not indeed lopsided, election results that yield dominance within provincial legislatures. Two alternative areas of explanation are assessed here. The first relates to electoral system factors. Certainly, the single member plurality electoral system and its resulting disproportionality is a key part of the argument here. Yet this cannot be the whole story, not least because election results are not so lopsided in every province, nor indeed at the federal level. Thus what also will be assessed in this area are two other, related, aspects of elections: the total size of the assembly and the number of individual constituencies, as well as relevant party system factors

Electoral Bias in Quebec Since 1936

In the period since 1936, Quebec has gone through two eras of party politics, the first between the Liberals and the Union Nationale, the second and ongoing era between the Liberals and the Parti Québécois. This study examines elections in Quebec in terms of all relevant types of electoral bias. In both eras the overall electoral bias has clearly been against the Liberal Party. The nature of this bias has changed however. Malapportionment was crucial through 1970, and of minimal importance since the 1972 redistribution. In contrast gerrymandering, ultimately involving an ‘equivalent to gerrymandering effect’ due to the geographic nature of Liberal core support, has been not only a permanent phenomenon but indeed since 1972 the dominant effect. The one election where both gerrymandering and the overall bias were pro-Liberal — 1989 — is shown to be the ‘exception that proves the rule’. Finally, the erratic extent of electoral bias in the past four decades is shown to arise from very uneven patterns of swing in Quebec

Comparative Voter Turnout in the Canadian Provinces since 1965: The Importance of Context

The relationship between voter turnout and individual-level determinants are well known. So is the ongoing decline in turnout over time. Yet political participation is also shaped by local factors and election contexts. This is certainly true across the Canadian provinces, where there has been a broad spectrum of turnout levels ranging from Prince Edward Island at the top to Alberta at the bottom. Using data on all 134 provincial elections from 1965 to 2014, we find three additional core determinants of voter turnout across the provinces: the competitiveness and multipartism of their elections, the embeddedness (local identification) of their populations, and the progressiveness of their electorates

Government‒business relations in multilevel systems: the effect of conflict perception on venue choice

In multilevel systems, organised interests, including business firms, can pursue their political goals at different levels. At the same time, national systems of interest representation provide important incentive structures for corporate political behaviour. In this context, corporate political strategy is guided by firms’ perceptions of their relationship with policy-makers. If this relationship is under strain in one venue, firms shift their lobbying effort to alternative venues, subject to constraints reflecting national institutional legacies. Using survey data on 56 large German and British firms, the article investigates empirically how perceptions of government‒business relations and national systems of interest representation interact to shape the political behaviour of large firms in multilevel systems. The analysis shows that perceived conflict with public authorities at the national level leads to increased business lobbying at the EU level. Furthermore, national types of interest representation shape relative business engagement at the EU level as well as the readiness of firms to shift venue

Government‒business relations in multilevel systems: the effect of conflict perception on venue choice

In multilevel systems, organised interests, including business firms, can pursue their political goals at different levels. At the same time, national systems of interest representation provide important incentive structures for corporate political behaviour. In this context, corporate political strategy is guided by firms’ perceptions of their relationship with policy-makers. If this relationship is under strain in one venue, firms shift their lobbying effort to alternative venues, subject to constraints reflecting national institutional legacies. Using survey data on 56 large German and British firms, the article investigates empirically how perceptions of government‒business relations and national systems of interest representation interact to shape the political behaviour of large firms in multilevel systems. The analysis shows that perceived conflict with public authorities at the national level leads to increased business lobbying at the EU level. Furthermore, national types of interest representation shape relative business engagement at the EU level as well as the readiness of firms to shift venue

"Following in Europe's Footsteps? The African Union and Integration in Africa"

[From the introduction]. The African Union, which came into existence in 2002, seems in some ways to be a copy of the European Union. First of all, there is the obvious use of “Union” in the name. Secondly, the institutions of the African Union parallel those of the European Union. Specifically, the African Union has a Pan-African Parliament, an executive African Commission, an African Court of Justice, an Executive Council (to match the European Union’s Council of Ministers), and — at the apex — the Assembly of the African Union, grouping its political leaders and meeting at summits (as per the European Council). Third and finally, the future plans of the African Union include other parallels, in particular an African Central Bank. Yet the African Union as an historical-political expression differs in three key ways from the European Union: it united almost all of (independent) Africa from its roots in the Organization of African Unity, it has a clear, geographical sense of where is Africa, and it lacks democratic cohesion, the occasional suspension of a member notwithstanding. These three points will be outlined briefly in turn, in each case contrasting them with the European Union. The result is that each entity has “existential” challenges, just differing ones — ultimately greater for the African Union

"Elections to the European Parliament: What do they indicate across the member nations?"

In order to aid in the explanation of what European Parliament elections are ‘all about,’ this paper will assess two contrasting hypotheses about such elections. The first is the view of these elections as being second-order contests, especially the expectation of an anti-government swing vote. The second view is the expression of anti-integration sentiment. It will be shown that for most member countries, one of the given explanations clearly fits better statistically than the other