Simulations of the temporal dynamic of spread of the PWN-infested populations of <i>M</i>. <i>galloprovincialis</i> along the four transects (A, B, C & D).

<p>Values represents the number of generations required to spread from the Spanish extremity to the French extremity of the transects. Max. alt. and Min. temp. represent respectively the maximal elevation and minimum temperatures (TN) for beetle survival tested. Percentages refer to the extent of change in number of generations between the minimum and maximum temperature and altitude tested.</p><p>Simulations of the temporal dynamic of spread of the PWN-infested populations of <i>M</i>. <i>galloprovincialis</i> along the four transects (A, B, C & D).</p

Bayesian clustering of individuals and populations of <i>M</i>. <i>galloprovincialis</i>.

<p>A) Barplots of individual assignment of the 485 individuals for K = 2. B) Membership of populations (sum of membership of individuals). Background refers to elevation.</p

Origin of the 40 first generation migrants detected among the 26 populations tested.

<p>Populations are represented on the circle by arcs. Colors refer to the assignments of populations to the two clusters identified by STRUCTURE (red = cluster of the southern side and green = cluster of the northern side of the mountain range). Ribbons represent migrants of first generation. The attached end indicates the population of "arrival" and the detached end to the most likely population of origin of the migrant.</p

Simulations resulting from the spread model.

<p>Figures show the potential spread of infested populations of <i>M</i>. <i>galloprovincialis</i> over the Pyrenees based on pine density and limits of survival of this species. A) Simulated spread when considering a maximal elevation of 1590 m for beetle survival. B) Simulated spread when considering a minimal temperature (TN) of -7°C for beetle survival. Simulations started from Spain (black circle) and were run until complete spread over the area. Each color panel represents the area colonized by the PWN in 10 years.</p

Temperatures, pine cover and resident populations in the Pyrenees.

<p>A) Mean of minimum temperature (°C) in winter (December, January and February; called TN) over 1950–2000. B) Mean temperatures (°C) in July over 1950–2000. C) Pine cover (%). D) Projection of the distribution and density of resident populations of <i>M</i>. <i>galloprovincialis</i> over the Pyrenean chain. Maximal elevation threshold for the beetle survival set to 1590 m for this representation. Scale refers to the population density (number of individuals per km²).</p

Simulated spread of PWN-infested populations assuming no spread of PWD infested beetles where the disease does not express.

<p>Maps represent the population density of infested populations for various temperature thresholds for PWD expression (mean July temperatures of 20°C and + 1°C and +2°C of climate warming). Simulations started from Spain (black circle) and were run until complete spread over the area. Each color panel represents the area colonized by the PWN in 10 years.</p

Details of aggregates of <i>M</i>. <i>galloprovincialis</i> considered across the Pyrenees.

<p>Code: identification number of aggregates (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0134126#pone.0134126.g001" target="_blank">Fig 1</a>); Long./Lat., geographic coordinates; <i>Pinus</i>, dominant host tree species in sampling site; N, population size; A. rich., mean allelic richness over loci calculated under rarefaction; P., average private allelic richness over loci; He and Ho, expected and observed heterozygosity; <i>F</i>_is, multilocus <i>F</i>_is estimate; “_”, aggregate not considered as a population for genetic analysis.</p><p>Details of aggregates of <i>M</i>. <i>galloprovincialis</i> considered across the Pyrenees.</p

Pairwise <i>F</i>_<i>st</i> and likelihood of hybrid populations along the 4 transects (green line).

<p>Numbers on the top left of each circle refer to population code (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0134126#pone.0134126.g001" target="_blank">Fig 1</a>). Values attached to brackets refer to the unbiased estimates of pairwise <i>F</i>_st calculated under <i>ENA</i> correction (NS = non-significant). The red dotted line shows the placement of the highest ridgeline. Values in the circles and their relative size show the percentage of likelihood to belong to the parent population of the opposite of the ridgeline. Populations used as parents to determine likelihood of hybrid populations are represented as black spots.</p

Microsatellite-data

This file corresponds to the genotypes of the individual analysed in the paper. All were collected in the field

mtDNA-Sequences-data

This file corresponds to the sequence and corresponding information on individuals analyzed in the documen