Statistical modeling of monthly streamflow using time series and artificial neural network models: Hindiya Barrage as a case study

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins models combine the autoregressive and moving average models to a stationary time series after the appropriate transformation, while the nonlinear autoregressive (N.A.R.) or the autoregressive neural network (ARNN) models are of the kind of multi-layer perceptron (M.L.P.), which compose an input layer, hidden layer and an output layer. Monthly streamflow at the downstream of the Euphrates River (Hindiya Barrage) /Iraq for the period January 2000 to December 2019 was modeled utilizing ARIMA and N.A.R. time series models. The predicted Box-Jenkins model was ARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,1), while the predicted artificial neural network (N.A.R.) model was (M.L.P. 1-3-1). The results of the study indicate that the traditional Box-Jenkins model was more accurate than the N.A.R. model in modeling the monthly streamflow of the studied case. Performing a one-step-ahead forecast during the year 2019, the forecast accuracy between the forecasted and recorded monthly streamflow for both models was as follows: the Box-Jenkins model gave root mean squared error (RMSE = 48.7) and the coefficient of determination R2 = 0.801), while the (NAR) model gave (RMSE = 93.4) and R2 = 0.269). Future projection of the monthly stream flow through the year 2025, utilizing the Box-Jenkins model, indicated the existence of long-term periodicity

Assessment of heavy metal pollution in the Great Al-Mussaib irrigation channel

The Great Al- Mussaib Channel (GMC), in Babylon province, Iraq, has been selected as a case study to measure the concentration of nine heavy metals (Pb, Ni, Zn, Fe, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn and Co) in both water and sediments of the GMC. The latter is used as a raw water source for two cities, which reveals the importance of the current study. Where, any heavy metals pollution could cause significant health problems for the population of these cities. The obtained results revealed that the concentrations of the studied heavy metals in the water of the GMC were less than the pollution levels and followed the order: Pb < Ni < Cu < Cr < Mn < Zn < Fe. It is noteworthy to highlight that the concentrations of Co and Cd were below the detectable limits. Additionally, the results obtained from the analyses of the studied sediment samples showed, according to the values of Pollution Load Index (PLI) and Geo-accumulation Index (Igeo), that the concentrations of studied metals were less than the pollution levels (except for a few cases) and followed the order: Cd < Co < Cu < Pb < Ni < Cr < Zn < Mn < Fe

Statistical modelling of turbidity removal applied to non-toxic natural coagulants in water treatment: a case study

An investigation into two non-toxic natural coagulants abundantly growing in different countries, cactus (Opuntia spp.) and okra was performed on monthly river water samples (one-year period). The studied case was the Euphrates river/Al-Mashroo canal/Iraq. Six statistical models were interpreted and tested describing the residual turbidity after Coagulation-Flocculation for the three studied cases (Optimum-Coagulant-Dose, Optimum-Flocculator-Velocity-Gradient and Optimum-Flocculation-Time). According to the environmental parameters recorded during the study and the statistical analyses, two facts were concluded. The first fact was that controlling the Optimum-Flocculator-Velocity-Gradient of the Coagulation-Flocculation process gave the highest contribution ratio of the models. The second fact was that the most significant environmental parameter (statistically) in the Coagulation-Flocculation process was the initial turbidity. This was proved for the two natural coagulants under study. Also, from the results of the study, it was concluded that the two natural coagulants were of similar coagulation-flocculation properties, and they were competent for turbidity removal

Guidance on Noncorticosteroid Systemic Immunomodulatory Therapy in Noninfectious Uveitis: Fundamentals Of Care for UveitiS (FOCUS) Initiative

Topic: An international, expert-led consensus initiative to develop systematic, evidence-based recommendations for the treatment of noninfectious uveitis in the era of biologics. Clinical Relevance: The availability of biologic agents for the treatment of human eye disease has altered practice patterns for the management of noninfectious uveitis. Current guidelines are insufficient to assure optimal use of noncorticosteroid systemic immunomodulatory agents. Methods: An international expert steering committee comprising 9 uveitis specialists (including both ophthalmologists and rheumatologists) identified clinical questions and, together with 6 bibliographic fellows trained in uveitis, conducted a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol systematic review of the literature (English language studies from January 1996 through June 2016; Medline [OVID], the Central Cochrane library, EMBASE, CINAHL, SCOPUS, BIOSIS, and Web of Science). Publications included randomized controlled trials, prospective and retrospective studies with sufficient follow-up, case series with 15 cases or more, peer-reviewed articles, and hand-searched conference abstracts from key conferences. The proposed statements were circulated among 130 international uveitis experts for review. A total of 44 globally representative group members met in late 2016 to refine these guidelines using a modified Delphi technique and assigned Oxford levels of evidence. Results: In total, 10 questions were addressed resulting in 21 evidence-based guidance statements covering the following topics: when to start noncorticosteroid immunomodulatory therapy, including both biologic and nonbiologic agents; what data to collect before treatment; when to modify or withdraw treatment; how to select agents based on individual efficacy and safety profiles; and evidence in specific uveitic conditions. Shared decision-making, communication among providers and safety monitoring also were addressed as part of the recommendations. Pharmacoeconomic considerations were not addressed. Conclusions: Consensus guidelines were developed based on published literature, expert opinion, and practical experience to bridge the gap between clinical needs and medical evidence to support the treatment of patients with noninfectious uveitis with noncorticosteroid immunomodulatory agents

Tuberculosis is associated with expansion of a motile, permissive and immunomodulatory CD16(+) monocyte population via the IL-10/STAT3 axis

The human CD14+ monocyte compartment is composed by two subsets based on CD16 expression. We previously reported that this compartment is perturbed in tuberculosis (TB) patients, as reflected by the expansion of CD16+ monocytes along with disease severity. Whether this unbalance is beneficial or detrimental to host defense remains to be elucidated. Here in the context of active TB, we demonstrate that human monocytes are predisposed to differentiate towards an anti-inflammatory (M2-like) macrophage activation program characterized by theCD16+CD163+MerTK+pSTAT3+ phenotype and functional properties such as enhanced protease-dependent motility, pathogen permissivity and immunomodulation. This process is dependent on STAT3 activation, and loss-of-function experiments point towards a detrimental role in host defense against TB. Importantly, we provide a critical correlation between the abundance of the CD16+CD163+MerTK+pSTAT3+ cells and the progression of the disease either at the local level in a non-human primate tuberculous granuloma context, or at the systemic level through the detection of the soluble form of CD163 in human sera. Collectively, this study argues for the pathogenic role of the CD16+CD163+MerTK+pSTAT3+ monocyte-to-macrophage differentiation program and its potential as a target for TB therapy,and promotes the detection of circulating CD163 as a potential biomarker for disease progression and monitoringof treatment efficacy.Fil: Lastrucci, Claire. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Bénard, Alan. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Balboa, Luciana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Medicina Experimental. Academia Nacional de Medicina de Buenos Aires. Instituto de Medicina Experimental; ArgentinaFil: Pingris, Karine. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Souriant, Shanti. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Poincloux, Renaud. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Al Saati, Talal. Inserm; FranciaFil: Rasolofo, Voahangy. Pasteur Institute in Antananarivo; MadagascarFil: González Montaner, Pablo. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Infecciosas ; ArgentinaFil: Inwentarz, Sandra. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Infecciosas ; ArgentinaFil: Moraña, Eduardo José. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Infecciosas ; ArgentinaFil: Kondova, Ivanela. Biomedical Primate Research Centre; Países BajosFil: Verreck, Franck A. W.. Biomedical Primate Research Centre; Países BajosFil: Sasiain, María del Carmen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Medicina Experimental. Academia Nacional de Medicina de Buenos Aires. Instituto de Medicina Experimental; ArgentinaFil: Neyrolles, Olivier. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Maridonneau Parini, Isabel. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Lugo Villarino, Geanncarlo. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Cougoule, Celine. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Franci

Are the current difficulty scores for laparoscopic liver surgery telling the whole story?: An international survey and recommendations for the future

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have suggested that the difficulty of laparoscopic liver resections are related to both patient and tumour factors, however the available difficulty scoring systems only incorporate tumour factors. The aim of this study was to assess the opinion of laparoscopic liver surgeons regarding the factors that affect the perceived difficulty of laparoscopic liver resections.METHOD: Using a Visual Analogue Scale an international survey of laparoscopic liver surgeons was undertaken to assess the perceived difficulty of 26 factors previously demonstrated to affect the difficulty of a laparoscopic liver resection.RESULTS: 80 surgeons with a combined experience of over 7000 laparoscopic liver resections responded to the survey. The difficulty of laparoscopic liver surgery was suggested to be increased by a BMI &gt; 35 by 89% of respondents; neo-adjuvant chemotherapy by 79%; repeated liver resection by 99% and concurrent procedures by 59% however these factors have not been included in the previous difficulty scoring systems.CONCLUSION: The results suggests that the difficulty of laparoscopic liver surgery is not fully assessed by the available difficulty scoring systems and prompts the development of a new difficulty score that incorporates all factors believed to increase difficulty.</p

Are the current difficulty scores for laparoscopic liver surgery telling the whole story? An international survey and recommendations for the future

Background: Recent studies have suggested that the difficulty of laparoscopic liver resections are related to both patient and tumour factors, however the available difficulty scoring systems only incorporate tumour factors. The aim of this study was to assess the opinion of laparoscopic liver surgeons regarding the factors that affect the perceived difficulty of laparoscopic liver resections. Method: Using a Visual Analogue Scale an international survey of laparoscopic liver surgeons was undertaken to assess the perceived difficulty of 26 factors previously demonstrated to affect the difficulty of a laparoscopic liver resection. Results: 80 surgeons with a combined experience of over 7000 laparoscopic liver resections responded to the survey. The difficulty of laparoscopic liver surgery was suggested to be increased by a BMI > 35 by 89% of respondents; neo-adjuvant chemotherapy by 79%; repeated liver resection by 99% and concurrent procedures by 59% however these factors have not been included in the previous difficulty scoring systems. Conclusion: The results suggests that the difficulty of laparoscopic liver surgery is not fully assessed by the available difficulty scoring systems and prompts the development of a new difficulty score that incorporates all factors believed to increase difficulty