Illustrative combination of interventions to meet the 2030 milestones, in the CAR/EU country group.

Details are as in Fig 2. Under the intervention scenarios shown here, vaccination coverage would need to ensure that 72% of people with TB infection have vaccine-induced immunity, in order to meet the 2030 target.</p

Fig 1 -

Comparison of different countries in the USAID portfolio, according to the proportion HIV/TB coinfection (top panel) and the proportion of incident TB that is rifampicin-resistant (bottom panel). Colours denote the different geographic groupings listed in Table 1. For each country group, horizontal dashed lines show average values, when weighted by country population size. The horizontal dotted line shows the population-weighted average over all countries in the portfolio.</p

Projected trends when tracking the number-needed-to-test (NNT) to identify 1 person with TB, in the Sub-Saharan Africa country group.

Projected trends when tracking the number-needed-to-test (NNT) to identify 1 person with TB, in the Sub-Saharan Africa country group.</p

Projected trends when tracking the number-needed-to-test (NNT) to identify 1 person with TB, in the Central Asia/Europe country group.

Projected trends when tracking the number-needed-to-test (NNT) to identify 1 person with TB, in the Central Asia/Europe country group.</p

Pre-COVID calibration data used for each of the country groups.

All data, including uncertainty intervals, were drawn from the WHO global TB database.</p

Interventions modelled for each of the country groups.

As noted in the text, these interventions mirror those modelled in the recent Global Plan to End TB [20]. Assumed levels of coverage are only illustrative, and do not necessarily represent the only possible scenarios for meeting the 2030 End TB goals. With the exception of vaccination, we assumed that all interventions would be initiated in 2022 and scaled up in a linear way over the next three years, to reach the coverage levels shown. For the TB vaccine scenario, we modelled a scenario where a vaccine is licensed by 2025, and scaled up over the subsequent three years.</p