11 research outputs found
Security Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa and Collective Security Challenges: The EAC and SADC in Comparative Perspective
Security Challenges in Sub-Sahara Afrika und kollektive Sicherheit Herausforderungen: Die EAC und SADC in Comparative Perspective
Die meisten regionalen und subregionalen Organisationen in Afrika sind konfrontiert mit mehr oder weniger ähnlichen Formen von Sicherheitsbedrohungen. Obwohl ein Potential für zwischenstaatliche Konflikte besteht, bestehen wenig Zweifel, dass die heute auffälligsten Herausforderungen für die Sicherheit, denen die Mehrheit der Staaten Afrikas sich gegenüber sieht, sich hauptsächlich in zwei Formen darstellen, nämlich transnationalen Bedrohungen oder innenpolitischen Krisen. Im Falle des Ausbleibens der richtigen Maßnahmen tragen beide das Potential in sich, die regionale, bzw. sub-regionale Stabilitätweiter zu gefährden. Die Ausgangsannahme war, dass subregionale Organisationen bewußt eingesetzt wurden, nicht nur, um ein kollektives Forum für den Einsatz von Krisenmechanismen im Falle transnationaler Bedrohung bereitzustellen, sondern dass sie auch eine wichtige Rolle zur Lösung von Konfliktsituationen in den Mitgliedsstaaten einnehmen können.
Folglich fragt die Studie danach, wie subregionale Organisationen mit Sicherheitsmandaten sich faktisch koordinieren und auf kollektive Sicherheitsprobleme reagieren. Wichtig war hier zu vergleichen, wie jede der zwei unterschiedlichen Sicherheitsprobleme, nicht nur innerhalb einer, sondern im Vergleich zweier subregionaler Organisationen angegangen wird. Die vorliegende Untersuchung war daher bestrebt, unter Benutzung einer qualitativen vergleichenden Methode, die jeweilige sicherheitspolitische Rolle der Eastern African Community und der Southern African Development Community zu untersuchen, bezogen auf den Zeitraum zwischen 2000 und 2011.
Im Bewusstsein der Tatsache, dass eine Reihe von Akteuren in einem mehrstufigen und dynamischen Prozess involviert ist, was zunehmend auch die Forderung nach Steuerung auf subregionaler Ebene unterstützt, ging die Studie darüber hinaus, lediglich die Unterschiede und Ähnlichkeiten herauszuarbeiten und hinterfragte, wie während der Ausübung der Koordinations- und Steuerungsfunktionen die Interaktionen der Akteure auf die Wirksamkeit der Organisationen in Bezug auf die diskutierten Gefährdungen regionaler Sicherheit auswirken.
Die sich aus der Untersuchung ergebenden Erfahrungen der EAC und SADC und ihrer Reaktionen auf die Sicherheitsgefährdungen bei mit Kleinwaffen ausgetragenen Konflikten und innenpolitischen Krisen bestätigen die Hypothese der Studie, dass die Koordination und Lenkung der subregionalen Sicherheitspolitik abhängig ist von der Art der kollektiven Sicherheitsbedrohung. Die beobachteten Entwicklungen und Praktiken innerhalb der EAC- und SADC-Sicherheitsarchitekturen zeigen auch auf, dass die hier im Fokus stehenden subregionalen Organisationen als vergleichsweise effektivere Akteure im Bereich der Kleinwaffen erscheinen, und tendenziellweniger in Fällen innenpolitischer Krisen in Mitgliedsstaaten.Most regional and sub-regional organizations confront more or less similar forms of security threats. Indeed, while there is still potential for inter-state conflict, it is well documented that the most salient security challenges confronting the majority of states in Africa to date are mainly of two forms, namely transnational threats and internal or domestic political crises. These security challenges if not properly addressed have the potential to turn stability into sub-regional or regional anarchical order. It was assumed that sub-regional organizations are adeptly placed not only to provide a collective forum for facilitating response mechanisms to transnational threats, but also can play important roles resolving conflict situations within their members. The study, thus, set out to establish how sub-regional arrangements with security mandates actually coordinate and manage their responses to these collective security challenges in their delineated areas. It was deemed important to compare not only how each of the two forms of security challenges are addressed within one, but also across two sub-regional arrangements. The study, therefore, with a comparative emphasis and using a qualitative method, sought to examine the roles of the EAC and SADC in their attempts to address these security challenges confronting their respective sub-regions covering the period from 2000 to 2011.
Cognizant of the fact that there is an array of actors engaged in a multilevel and dynamic process, which increasingly underpins security governance in the sub-regional level, the study moved beyond fleshing out disparities and resemblances and interrogated how actors’ interactions during coordination and management functions reflect on the organization’s overall effectiveness in relation to the security challenges. The emerging patterns from the examination of the EAC and SADC experiences in reacting to the security challenges of small arms and domestic political crises confirm the study’s hypothesis that the coordination and management of sub-regional security governance depends on the type of collective security challenge. The observed developments and practices within the EAC and SADC security architectures also reveal that the security dimensions facing their Member States and the mitigating tasks of these sub-regional groupings vary. In comparative terms the sub-regional organizations under focus here appear as more effective actors in the small arms issue-area and less so when it comes to cases of domestic political crises
A Literature Review
This working paper takes stock of the academic literature on the governance of
coastal resources and examines the emergence of various instruments, their
implementation experiences and their implications in terms of sustainability
outcomes. More specifically, it seeks to interrogate the literature in order to: (1)
highlight the types of actors involved, their relations and their networks; (2) identify
the main processes involved in the governance of coastal resources and different
partnership models; and (3) evaluate the outcomes of these processes on social and
ecological sustainability. It is the result of activities undertaken by the New
Partnerships for Sustainability (NEPSUS) research and capacity building project,
which analyses sustainability partnerships in three key natural resource sectors in
Tanzania: forestry, wildlife and coastal resources. This paper reviews the overall
literature on governance of coastal resources, with the aim of identifying gaps and
shaping methodological choices for fieldwork
Sustainability Partnerships for the Governance of Coastal Resources in Tanzania
The paper examines the experience of sustainability partnerships for the management of
coastal resources in Tanzania. It identifies key actors and governance dynamics, with focus on
decentralization processes, legitimacy-building and participation of local communities. The
paper first provides a brief status of coastal resources in Tanzania and a historical overview of
the evolution of co-management practices. Then, it examines actors and processes at the
national and local levels in relation to two types of co-management: Marine Parks (MPAs) and
Beach Management Units (BMUs). In view of ongoing research under the New Partnerships
for Sustainability project (NEPSUS), it provides guidance on research gaps in specific relation
to the Mnazi Bay Ruvuma Estuary Marine Park (MBREMP) and selected BMUs in Mtwara
region, Southern Tanzania
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background
Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.
Methods
22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.
Findings
Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.
Interpretation
Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic