Uncertainties related to the representation of momentum transport in shallow convection

Convective momentum transport (CMT) has mostly been studied for deep convection, whereas little is known about its characteristics and importance in shallow convection. In this study, CMT by shallow convection is investigated by analyzing both data from large-eddy simulations (LESs) and reforecasts performed with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In addition, the central terms underlying the bulk mass-flux parametrization of CMT are evaluated offline. Further, the uncertainties related to the representation of CMT are explored by running the stochastically perturbed parametrizations (SPP) approach of the IFS. The analyzed cases exhibit shallow convective clouds developing within considerable low-level wind shear. Analysis of the momentum fluxes in the LES data reveals significant momentum transport by the convection in both cases, which is directed downgradient despite substantial organization of the cloud field. A detailed inspection of the convection parametrization reveals a very good representation of the entrainment and detrainment rates and an appropriate representation of the convective mass and momentum fluxes. To determine the correct values of mass-flux and in-cloud momentum at the cloud base in the parametrization yet remains challenging. The spread in convection-related quantities generated by the SPP is reasonable and addresses many of the identified uncertainties.ISSN:1942-246

Understanding global model systematic shortwave radiation errors in subtropical marine boundary layer cloud regimes

Global numerical weather prediction and climate models are subject to long‐standing systematic shortwave radiation errors due to deficiencies in the representation of boundary layer clouds over the ocean. In the subtropics, clouds are typically too reflective in the cumulus regime and not reflective enough in the stratocumulus regime. Potential sources of error include cloud cover, liquid water path, effective radius, and subgrid heterogeneity, but diagnosing the absolute contributions of each to the radiation bias is hampered by uncertainties and sometimes contradictory information from different observational products. This paper draws on a set of ship‐based observations of boundary layer clouds obtained during the ARM MAGIC campaign along a northeast Pacific Ocean transect, crossing both stratocumulus and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. The surface‐based observations of cloud properties are compared with various satellite products, taking account of the diurnal cycle, to provide an improved quantitative assessment of the deficiencies in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts global numerical weather prediction model. A series of off‐line radiation calculations are then performed to assess the impact on the shortwave radiation bias of correcting each of the model's deficiencies in cloud characteristics along the transect. A reduction in the bias is achieved by improving the agreement between modeled and observed in‐cloud liquid water path frequency distributions. In the cumulus regime, this is accomplished primarily by reducing the all‐sky water path, while for the stratocumulus regime, an underestimate of cloud cover and liquid water and an overestimate in effective radius and subgrid heterogeneity all contribute to a lack of reflected shortwave radiation

Increased B-cell activity with consumption of activated monocytes in severe COVID-19 patients

The pathogenesis of autoimmune complications triggered by SARS-CoV2 has not been completely elucidated. Here, we performed an analysis of the cellular immune status, cell ratios, and monocyte populations of patients with COVID-19 treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) (cohort 1, N = 23) and normal care unit (NCU) (cohort 2, n = 10) compared with control groups: patients treated in ICU for noninfectious reasons (cohort 3, n = 30) and patients treated in NCU for infections other than COVID-19 (cohort 4, n = 21). Patients in cohort 1 presented significant differences in comparison with the other cohorts, including reduced frequencies of lymphocytes, reduced CD8+T-cell count, reduced percentage of activated and intermediate monocytes and an increased B/T8 cell ratio. Over time, patients in cohort 1 who died presented with lower counts of B, T, CD4+T, CD8+T-lymphocytes, NK cells, and activated monocytes. The B/T8 ratio was significantly lower in the group of survivors. In cohort 1, significantly higher levels of IgG1 and IgG3 were found, whereas cohort 3 presented higher levels of IgG3 compared to controls. Among many immune changes, an elevated B/T8-cell ratio and a reduced rate of activated monocytes were mainly observed in patients with severe COVID-19. Both parameters were associated with death in cohort 1

Intradermal Indocyanine Green for In Vivo Fluorescence Laser Scanning Microscopy of Human Skin: A Pilot Study

BACKGROUND: In clinical diagnostics, as well as in routine dermatology, the increased need for non-invasive diagnosis is currently satisfied by reflectance laser scanning microscopy. However, this technique has some limitations as it relies solely on differences in the reflection properties of epidermal and dermal structures. To date, the superior method of fluorescence laser scanning microscopy is not generally applied in dermatology and predominantly restricted to fluorescein as fluorescent tracer, which has a number of limitations. Therefore, we searched for an alternative fluorophore matching a novel skin imaging device to advance this promising diagnostic approach. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a Vivascope®-1500 Multilaser microscope, we found that the fluorophore Indocyanine-Green (ICG) is well suited as a fluorescent marker for skin imaging in vivo after intradermal injection. ICG is one of few fluorescent dyes approved for use in humans. Its fluorescence properties are compatible with the application of a near-infrared laser, which penetrates deeper into the tissue than the standard 488 nm laser for fluorescein. ICG-fluorescence turned out to be much more stable than fluorescein in vivo, persisting for more than 48 hours without significant photobleaching whereas fluorescein fades within 2 hours. The well-defined intercellular staining pattern of ICG allows automated cell-recognition algorithms, which we accomplished with the free software CellProfiler, providing the possibility of quantitative high-content imaging. Furthermore, we demonstrate the superiority of ICG-based fluorescence microscopy for selected skin pathologies, including dermal nevi, irritant contact dermatitis and necrotic skin. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results introduce a novel in vivo skin imaging technique using ICG, which delivers a stable intercellular fluorescence signal ideal for morphological assessment down to sub-cellular detail. The application of ICG in combination with the near infrared laser opens new ways for minimal-invasive diagnosis and monitoring of skin disorders

Melanoma Screening with Cellular Phones

Background. Mobile teledermatology has recently been shown to be suitable for teledermatology despite limitations in image definition in preliminary studies. The unique aspect of mobile teledermatology is that this system represents a filtering or triage system, allowing a sensitive approach for the management of patients with emergent skin diseases. Methodology/Principal Findings. In this study we investigated the feasibility of teleconsultation using a new generation of cellular phones in pigmented skin lesions. 18 patients were selected consecutively in the Pigmented Skin Lesions Clinic of the Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Graz, Graz (Austria). Clinical and dermoscopic images were acquired using a Sony Ericsson with a built-in two-megapixel camera. Two teleconsultants reviewed the images on a specific web application (http://www.dermahandy.net/default.asp) where images had been uploaded in JPEG format. Compared to the face-to-face diagnoses, the two teleconsultants obtained a score of correct telediagnoses of 89% and of 91.5% reporting the clinical and dermoscopic images, respectively. Conclusions/Significance. The present work is the first study performing mobile teledermoscopy using cellular phones. Mobile teledermatology has the potential to become an easy applicable tool for everyone and a new approach for enhanced self-monitoring for skin cancer screening in the spirit of the eHealth program of the European Commission Information for Society and Media

Summary and Recommendations from Working Group 1: model uncertainty representations in convection-permitting / shorter lead-time / limited-area ensembles

WG3 discussed both the pros and cons of existing schemes as Working group 1 considered the treatment of model uncertainty (MU) in high-resolution ensembles, at grid spacings of order 1-5 km. These systems are often run for regional weather forecasting, perhaps over a single country, and for lead times of up to 5 days. Looking ahead, ECMWF’s strategy seeks to deliver global medium-range ensemble forecasts with 3-4 km grid spacings by 2030. It is questionable for what grid spacing we should dispense with a deep convection parameterization, but it will be either switched off or damped in these systems, such that deep convection can be assumed to be dominated by explicit motions. One of the problems with limited-area ensemble systems at this scale is that spread depends not only on the modelling system itself but also on the variability inherited from the large-scale boundary conditions. There is often thought to be a lack of spread in our high-resolution EPS (ensemble prediction systems), but this could reflect a lack of diversity on larger scales. The relative importance of lateral-boundary diversity and the model uncertainty mechanisms is regime dependent. The lateral boundaries will generally be more important in midlatitude winter but less so for summertime convection in relatively weak synoptic flow

Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratification at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the trade-wind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. These findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks