Carl Menger and Friedrich von Wieser on the Role of Knowledge and Beliefs in the Emergence and Evolution of Institutions

In this article we start from the well-known contribution of the Austrian school with respect to the problem of knowledge and its role in inter- individual coordination. Focusing on two authors of this school - his founding father Carl Menger and Friedrich von Wieser, we show that the y both appreciate the role of knowledge in the emergence of economic and social institutions. However, their divergences regarding methodological individualism and subjectivism lead them to provide two different perspectives concerning the emergence and dynamics of institutions. This is exemplified by Menger and Wieser’s way of dealing with the emergence of money: on one hand, Menger takes for granted the involuntary formation of shared knowledge about the validity of social institutions such as money; on the other hand, Wieser favours an explanation whereby collective beliefs are more than shared knowledge since they do have some autonomy vis-à-vis individuals.

Statistics for the Luria-Delbr\"uck distribution

The Luria-Delbr\"uck distribution is a classical model of mutations in cell kinetics. It is obtained as a limit when the probability of mutation tends to zero and the number of divisions to infinity. It can be interpreted as a compound Poisson distribution (for the number of mutations) of exponential mixtures (for the developing time of mutant clones) of geometric distributions (for the number of cells produced by a mutant clone in a given time). The probabilistic interpretation, and a rigourous proof of convergence in the general case, are deduced from classical results on Bellman-Harris branching processes. The two parameters of the Luria-Delbr\"uck distribution are the expected number of mutations, which is the parameter of interest, and the relative fitness of normal cells compared to mutants, which is the heavy tail exponent. Both can be simultaneously estimated by the maximum likehood method. However, the computation becomes numerically unstable as soon as the maximal value of the sample is large, which occurs frequently due to the heavy tail property. Based on the empirical generating function, robust estimators are proposed and their asymptotic variance is given. They are comparable in precision to maximum likelihood estimators, with a much broader range of calculability, a better numerical stability, and a negligible computing time

Dynamic robust duality in utility maximization

A celebrated financial application of convex duality theory gives an explicit relation between the following two quantities: (i) The optimal terminal wealth $X^*(T) : = X_{\varphi^*}(T)$ of the problem to maximize the expected $U$-utility of the terminal wealth $X_{\varphi}(T)$ generated by admissible portfolios $\varphi(t), 0 \leq t \leq T$ in a market with the risky asset price process modeled as a semimartingale; (ii) The optimal scenario $\frac{dQ^*}{dP}$ of the dual problem to minimize the expected $V$-value of $\frac{dQ}{dP}$ over a family of equivalent local martingale measures $Q$, where $V$ is the convex conjugate function of the concave function $U$. In this paper we consider markets modeled by It\^o-L\'evy processes. In the first part we use the maximum principle in stochastic control theory to extend the above relation to a \emph{dynamic} relation, valid for all $t \in [0,T]$. We prove in particular that the optimal adjoint process for the primal problem coincides with the optimal density process, and that the optimal adjoint process for the dual problem coincides with the optimal wealth process, $0 \leq t \leq T$. In the terminal time case $t=T$ we recover the classical duality connection above. We get moreover an explicit relation between the optimal portfolio $\varphi^*$ and the optimal measure $Q^*$. We also obtain that the existence of an optimal scenario is equivalent to the replicability of a related $T$-claim. In the second part we present robust (model uncertainty) versions of the optimization problems in (i) and (ii), and we prove a similar dynamic relation between them. In particular, we show how to get from the solution of one of the problems to the other. We illustrate the results with explicit examples

Crossings of smooth shot noise processes

In this paper, we consider smooth shot noise processes and their expected number of level crossings. When the kernel response function is sufficiently smooth, the mean number of crossings function is obtained through an integral formula. Moreover, as the intensity increases, or equivalently, as the number of shots becomes larger, a normal convergence to the classical Rice's formula for Gaussian processes is obtained. The Gaussian kernel function, that corresponds to many applications in physics, is studied in detail and two different regimes are exhibited.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AAP807 the Annals of Applied Probability ( http://www.imstat.org/aap/ ) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Carl Menger and Friedrich von Wieser on the role of knowledge and beliefs

?Knowledge ; philosophical roots of knowledge ; economic traditions

Innovation and Business Cycles

The main purpose of this chapter is to assess the originality of Schumpeter's theory of business cycles. The first section outlines the distinctive features of Schumpeter's approach to business cycles and economic dynamics. Section two looks at the mechanisms constituting the cycle in Schumpeter's two major contributions on this subject, the Theory of Economic Development (1911) and Business Cycles (1939).Business cycles ; Schumpeter ; economic development

Short-term manpower management in manufacturing systems: new requirements and DSS prototyping

The short-term planning and scheduling of discrete manufacturing systems has mostly focused in the past on the management of machines, implicitly considered as the critical resources of the workshops. Some of the present schedulers claim to also manage human resources, but perform most of the time a local allocation of operators to machines, these operators having regular working hours. However, it seems clear that the workforce has a specificity that should be better taken into account by short-term planning facilities. Moreover, the variability of the weekly working hours through the year will shortly become a rule and not anymore an exception. On the base of a questionnaire answered by 19 French companies of different sizes and industrial sectors, we have tried to identify more precisely some industrial requirements concerning the short-term management of human resources. The growing interest in annualised hours together with the lack of software tools that allow to implement it practically is one of the results of this questionnaire. We suggest in this article the specification of a decision support system for short-term manpower management under annualised hours, taking into account the competence of the operators. A software prototype has been developed according to these specifications; the results of a simple but representative example are described

A Parameterized Algebra for Event Notification Services

Event notification services are used in various applications such as digital libraries, stock tickers, traffic control, or facility management. However, to our knowledge, a common semantics of events in event notification services has not been defined so far. In this paper, we propose a parameterized event algebra which describes the semantics of composite events for event notification systems. The parameters serve as a basis for flexible handling of duplicates in both primitive and composite events