Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars

Purpose- The chapter studies the impact of fiscal policy on the stabilization of peace in the aftermath of a civil war. Methodology- We use data from African war-torn countries and study the issue of post-conflict stabilization from an empirical perspective. We employ probit analysis to formally estimate the effect of fiscal policy on the probability of maintaining peace in the post-conflict period. Findings- The success of post-conflict transition does not require downsizing the government. On the contrary, successful post-conflict transitions are on average characterised by an increase in the size of the government. However, both expenditures and revenues increase at a comparable pace. Moreover, in successful post-conflict transitions, the increase in government size involves an increase in the incidence of capital expenditure relative to government consumption. On the revenue side, budgetary grants appear to strengthen the chances of success. A heavier debt burden does not seem to compromise the probability of successfully completing the post-conflict transition. Research limitations/Implications: Future research should (i) extend the sample to non-African countries, (ii) extend the analysis to other macroeconomic policy variables, and (iii) supplement cross-country analysis on the role of fiscal policy with country case studies. A potential application of the findings of this chapter is the construction of a model to predict the evolution of currently ongoing post-conflict transitions. Social implications- The findings bear implications on how governments should conduct fiscal policy in the aftermath of a conflict. They also provide guidelines for the international community on how best to assist post-conflict economies. Originality- Papers concerned with the determinants of peace in the post-conflict period do not generally look at the potential contribution of fiscal policy. This chapter is the first attempt, to the best of our knowledge, to provide econometric evidence on the role of fiscal policy as a possible driver of peace stabilization in the aftermath of a conflict.

Runtime monitoring of distributed systems

Distributed and component-based architectures are becoming more prevalent computer systems. The increased complexities introduced by the distribution hampers dependability, emphasising the need for verification techniques tailored for a distributed setting. Runtime verification has proven to be a viable approach for verifying correctness, by focussing on the adherence of the runtime-generated trace to the desired properties. We present a broad taxonomy of current techniques to distributed monitoring, culminating in the proposal of a novel migrating monitor approach. We argue for certain situations where this approach presents clear advantages over current techniques.peer-reviewe

Distributed system contract monitoring

Runtime verification of distributed systems poses various challenges. A pivotal challenge is the choice of how to distribute the monitors themselves across the system. On one hand, centralised monitoring may result in increased communication overhead and information exposure across locations, while, on the other hand, systems with dynamic topologies and properties are difficult to address using static monitor choreographies. In this paper we present mDPi, a location-aware π-calculus extension for reasoning about the distributed monitoring scenario. We also define numerous monitoring strategies for a regular expression-based logic, including a novel approach in which monitors migrate to ensure local monitoring. Finally, we present a number of results which emerge from this formalism, justifying our approach.peer-reviewe

Graduated without passing? The employment dimension and LDCs' prospects under the Istanbul Programme of Action

Least Developed Countries’ (LDCs’) recent economic performance has sparked renewed optimism, although the remarkable trend in GDP growth has not been commensurate with employment creation and social development outcomes. Against this background, whilst the Istanbul Programme of Action for the LDCs (IPoA) implicitly acknowledges the link between structural transformation, employment creation, and inclusive growth, in practical terms its formulation is such that policy-makers’ attention is often captured by GDP growth targets (7 percent per year) and graduation prospects, i.e. the only two quantified targets in the IPoA. Combining secondary labour force data, with different growth scenarios based on historical employment elasticities of growth, the paper tests whether achieving the IPoA target of 7 percent growth rate until 2020 would be adequate for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to generate sufficient employment. Results show that, even if the IPoA target were achieved, a number of LDCs may not be in a position to productively employ all the new entrants in the labour market, unless their pattern of growth shifts towards more diversified employment-intensive sectors. In other words, the pattern of growth is as critical as its quantitative level. This conclusion highlights the need to put the employment dimension at the centre of LDC development prospects, over and beyond GDP growth targets and graduation scenarios

Graduated without passing? The employment dimension and LDCs' prospects under the Istanbul Programme of Action

Least Developed Countries’ (LDCs’) recent economic performance has sparked renewed optimism, although the remarkable trend in GDP growth has not been commensurate with employment creation and social development outcomes. Against this background, whilst the Istanbul Programme of Action for the LDCs (IPoA) implicitly acknowledges the link between structural transformation, employment creation, and inclusive growth, in practical terms its formulation is such that policy-makers’ attention is often captured by GDP growth targets (7 percent per year) and graduation prospects, i.e. the only two quantified targets in the IPoA. Combining secondary labour force data, with different growth scenarios based on historical employment elasticities of growth, the paper tests whether achieving the IPoA target of 7 percent growth rate until 2020 would be adequate for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to generate sufficient employment. Results show that, even if the IPoA target were achieved, a number of LDCs may not be in a position to productively employ all the new entrants in the labour market, unless their pattern of growth shifts towards more diversified employment-intensive sectors. In other words, the pattern of growth is as critical as its quantitative level. This conclusion highlights the need to put the employment dimension at the centre of LDC development prospects, over and beyond GDP growth targets and graduation scenarios

Distributed System Contract Monitoring

The use of behavioural contracts, to specify, regulate and verify systems, is particularly relevant to runtime monitoring of distributed systems. System distribution poses major challenges to contract monitoring, from monitoring-induced information leaks to computation load balancing, communication overheads and fault-tolerance. We present mDPi, a location-aware process calculus, for reasoning about monitoring of distributed systems. We define a family of Labelled Transition Systems for this calculus, which allow formal reasoning about different monitoring strategies at different levels of abstractions. We also illustrate the expressivity of the calculus by showing how contracts in a simple contract language can be synthesised into different mDPi monitors.Comment: In Proceedings FLACOS 2011, arXiv:1109.239

Final report in connection with MED-ERMIS (Mediterranean Environmental Reporting Monitoring and Information System) MALTA

This report outlines the work that has been carried so far as part of the MED-ERMIS (Malta) project between November 2000 and November 2002. The Sustainability Indicators – Malta Observatory (SI-MO) was established in November 2000 to meet the requirements of the MED-ERMIS (Malta) project. The Observatory’s main remit was to conduct research and development work, and to disseminate information on Sustainability Indicators for Malta. SI-MO engaged research assistants, consultants and secretarial staff in order to assist in the execution of this project.peer-reviewe

Sunetti ta’ William Shakespeare

Ġabra ta’ poeżiji u proża li tinkludi: Grand Prix ta’ Carmel Azzopardi – Pizza marinara ta’ Carmel Azzopardi – Ħajku ta’ Kit Azzopardi – Ix-xemgħa qiegħda ta’ Charles Bezzina – U taħti ramel, ramel ta’ Charles Bezzina – Vażett ta’ Ġorġ Borg – Bniedem li mhux ta’ Ġorġ Borg – Il-ħajbu ta’ Antoine Cassar – Il-mistoħbija ta’ Manwel Cassar – Għasel ta’ Carmel G. Cauchi – Dgħajsa ta’ Carmel G. Cauchi – Ħitan ta’ Alfred Degabriele – Skeletru silwett...f’realtà moħbija ta’ Stefano Farrugia – Minjatura tal-enimmi ta’ Stefano Farrugia – Mnejn jgħaddi Kristu ta’ Joe Friggieri – Rebbiegħa ta’ Reno Fenech – Blogger ta’ Charles Flores – Veġeterjana ta’ Charles Flores – Mejju ta’ Joe P. Galea – Kien hemm lejla u tmien nisa ta’ Claudia Gauci – Ħobbni ta’ Sergio Grech – Mitlufin ta’ Maria Grech Ganado – Moħħi ta’ Maria Grech Ganado – Viżjoni ta’ Maria Grech Ganado – Inkontinenza ta’ Adrian Grima – Andrew jħebb in-nar ta’ Adrian Grima – It-Tlieta, 20 ta’ Lulju 2004 ta’ Alfred Massa – Fuq l-għolja tal- Verdala ta’ Jane Micallef – Imm’issa ta’ Jane Micallef – Baby blues ta’ Immanuel Mifsud – Ġo dar sawra ta’ Immanuel Mifsud – Lil Dun Karm ta’ Maurice Mifsud Bonnici – Il-fuklar ta’ Achille Mizzi – Ut videam ta’ Achille Mizzi – Karnival solitarju ta’ Patrick Sammut – Mill-baħħ etern ta’ Joe Zammit Tabona – ...fil-ħmieġ ta’ ftit blatiet... ta’ Paul P. Borg – Bħall-qasab ta’ Steve Borg – L-aħħar żjara ta’ Victor Fenech – Ħelwa.morra 18 ta’ Ann Marie Schembri – Jack & Jill ta’ Trevor Żahra – Għadbilura ta’ Russell Davis, traduzzjoni ta’ Toni Aquilina – Sunetti ta’ William Shakespeare, traduzzjoni ta’ Oliver Friggieri.peer-reviewe

Global disparities in surgeons’ workloads, academic engagement and rest periods: the on-calL shIft fOr geNEral SurgeonS (LIONESS) study

: The workload of general surgeons is multifaceted, encompassing not only surgical procedures but also a myriad of other responsibilities. From April to May 2023, we conducted a CHERRIES-compliant internet-based survey analyzing clinical practice, academic engagement, and post-on-call rest. The questionnaire featured six sections with 35 questions. Statistical analysis used Chi-square tests, ANOVA, and logistic regression (SPSS® v. 28). The survey received a total of 1.046 responses (65.4%). Over 78.0% of responders came from Europe, 65.1% came from a general surgery unit; 92.8% of European and 87.5% of North American respondents were involved in research, compared to 71.7% in Africa. Europe led in publishing research studies (6.6 ± 8.6 yearly). Teaching involvement was high in North America (100%) and Africa (91.7%). Surgeons reported an average of 6.7 ± 4.9 on-call shifts per month, with European and North American surgeons experiencing 6.5 ± 4.9 and 7.8 ± 4.1 on-calls monthly, respectively. African surgeons had the highest on-call frequency (8.7 ± 6.1). Post-on-call, only 35.1% of respondents received a day off. Europeans were most likely (40%) to have a day off, while African surgeons were least likely (6.7%). On the adjusted multivariable analysis HDI (Human Development Index) (aOR 1.993) hospital capacity > 400 beds (aOR 2.423), working in a specialty surgery unit (aOR 2.087), and making the on-call in-house (aOR 5.446), significantly predicted the likelihood of having a day off after an on-call shift. Our study revealed critical insights into the disparities in workload, access to research, and professional opportunities for surgeons across different continents, underscored by the HDI

Keeping or catching up? Population dynamics and education in Africa

Africa will account for 80 percent of the 4 billion increase in world population by 2100. A demographic transition with an increase in its working age population provides a window of opportunity which if reaped will lead to a “demographic dividend” for accelerated growth. In Africa, declining mortality yet combined with high fertility rates constitute unusual population dynamics of developing countries. The dividend is underpinned by adequate skill profiles. Using secondary data sources on education, population trends and fiscal allocation this paper shows that keeping up with increased student intake has somewhat compromised quality of education and adequate skills.  In particular the fiscal allocation to education seems not to be aligned to increased student intake further contributing to the challenge of educational quality. The results show that population change contribute only 6 percent change in educational unit allocation thus compromising the possible dividend.