Development of climate services for the management of Mediterranean water resource systems: case study of the Júcar system and Valencia water supply

Tesis por compendio[ES] Los servicios climáticos son productos que resultan de la combinación de datos climáticos y otra información pertinente y que resultan útiles para la toma decisiones para la adaptación o mitigación del cambio climático. Idealmente, este tipo de servicios funcionan como puente entre los puros datos climáticos y los usuarios finales, de modo que la ciencia queda traducida en productos o servicios útiles y comprensibles. Con frecuencia, los servicios climáticos han sido desarrollados por expertos en datos climáticos sin tener en cuenta las necesidades específicas de los usuarios finales. Este enfoque «top-down» con frecuencia significa que no se utiliza la información más relevante para su creación y que se descuida la perspectiva del usuario final durante el proceso de diseño. La desconexión existente entre los potenciales usuarios de servicios climáticos y los propios productos ha conducido a una falta de aceptación y utilización de los servicios climáticos, incluso entre aquellos usuarios más vulnerables a los efectos del cambio climático. La co-creación de servicios climáticos junto a los usuarios que van a utilizarlos puede ayudar a solucionar muchos de los retos descritos anteriormente. Al implicar a los usuarios en el diseño y desarrollo de los servicios, es más sencillo que éstos sean pertinentes, se adapten a sus necesidades y sean fáciles de usar. Esto puede ayudar a aumentar la concienciación y la comprensión de las posibles repercusiones del cambio climático, así como a generar confianza en los servicios que se prestan. Además, la co-creación de estos servicios puede ayudar a desarrollar modelos de negocio más sostenibles para los servicios climáticos basados en el beneficio mutuo y la propiedad compartida. Esto puede contribuir a que los servicios sean sostenibles y puedan seguir prestándose a largo plazo. La co-creación puede, en definitiva, ayudar a que los servicios se consideren relevantes y valiosos para los usuarios, y que éstos estén dispuestos a invertir el tiempo y los recursos necesarios para utilizarlos de forma sostenida a lo largo del tiempo. El objetivo de esta tesis es contribuir al desarrollo de servicios climáticos eficaces y orientados al usuario para la adaptación al cambio climático, centrándose en el sector del agua. Al promover la creación conjunta de servicios climáticos, se pretende garantizar que las estrategias de adaptación se adapten a las necesidades específicas de los distintos usuarios de los servicios climáticos, y crear resiliencia y capacidad en las organizaciones y comunidades. El caso de estudio consiste en la co-creación de un servicio climático para la evaluación de los impactos del cambio climático en el sistema de abastecimiento de agua a Valencia y su área metropolitana. El servicio climático se creó juntamente con la empresa local de suministro de agua de Valencia (EMIVASA), en el contexto del proyecto INNOVA. Para realizar este análisis, se desarrolló un modelo de dinámica de sistemas de la cuenca del Júcar, capaz de representar las complejas interrelaciones del sistema a lo largo del tiempo, y se combinó con un modelo de calidad de aguas del embalse de Tous para realizar el análisis sobre la calidad del recurso futuro disponible. Este trabajo demuestra el valor de involucrar a los usuarios finales en la co-creación de servicios climáticos para garantizar su relevancia, utilidad y aceptación. Lo hace mediante la aplicación de esta metodología a la cuenca del Júcar y al problema del abastecimiento a la ciudad de Valencia en escenarios futuro de cambio climático. Esta aplicación permite extraer conclusiones sobre las formas de co-crear este tipo de productos y las mejores formas de abordar la co-creación de servicios climáticos en sectores clave.[CA] Els serveis climàtics són productes que resulten de la combinació de dades climàtiques i altra informació pertinent i que resulten útils per a la presa decisions per a l'adaptació o mitigació del canvi climàtic. Idealment, aquest tipus de serveis funcionen com a pont entre les pures dades climàtiques i els usuaris finals, de manera que la ciència queda traduïda en productes o serveis útils i comprensibles. Amb freqüència, els serveis climàtics han sigut desenvolupats per experts en dades climàtiques sense tindre en compte les necessitats específiques dels usuaris finals. Aquest enfocament «top-down» amb freqüència significa que no s'utilitza la informació més rellevant per a la seua creació i que es descura la perspectiva de l'usuari final durant el procés de disseny. La desconnexió existent entre els potencials usuaris de serveis climàtics i els propis productes ha desembocat a una falta d'acceptació i utilització dels serveis climàtics, fins i tot entre aquells usuaris més vulnerables a l'efecte del canvi climàtic. La co-creació de serveis climàtics amb els usuaris finals pot ajudar a solucionar molts dels reptes descrits anteriorment. En implicar els usuaris en el disseny i desenvolupament dels serveis, és més senzill que aquests siguen pertinents, s'adapten a les seues necessitats i siguen fàcils d'usar. Això pot ajudar a augmentar la conscienciació i la comprensió de les possibles repercussions del canvi climàtic, així com a generar confiança en els serveis que es presten. A més, la co-creació d'aquests serveis pot ajudar a desenvolupar models de negoci més sostenibles per als serveis climàtics: en implicar els usuaris en el desenvolupament i el finançament dels serveis, és possible crear models de negoci basats en el benefici mutu i la propietat compartida. Això pot contribuir al fet que els serveis siguen sostenibles i puguen continuar prestant-se a llarg termini. La co-creació pot, en definitiva, ajudar al fet que els serveis es consideren rellevants i valuosos per als usuaris, i que aquests estiguen disposats a invertir el temps i els recursos necessaris per a utilitzar-los de forma sostinguda al llarg del temps. L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és contribuir al desenvolupament de serveis climàtics eficaços i orientats a l'usuari per a l'adaptació al canvi climàtic, centrant-se en el sector de l'aigua. En promoure la creació conjunta de serveis climàtics, es pretén garantir que les estratègies d'adaptació s'adapten a les necessitats específiques dels diferents usuaris dels serveis climàtics, i crear resiliència i capacitat en les organitzacions i comunitats. El cas d'estudi consisteix en la co-creació d'un servei climàtic per a l'avaluació dels impactes del canvi climàtic en el sistema de proveïment d'aigua a València i la seua àrea metropolitana. El servei climàtic es va crear juntament amb l'empresa local de subministrament d'aigua de València (EMIVASA), en el context del projecte INNOVA. Per a realitzar aquesta anàlisi, es va desenvolupar un model de dinàmica de sistemes de la conca del Xúquer, adequat per representar les complexes interrelacions del sistema al llarg del temps, i es va combinar amb un model de qualitat d'aigües de l'embassament de Tous per a realitzar l'anàlisi sobre la qualitat del recurs futur disponible. Aquest treball demostra el valor d'involucrar als usuaris finals en la co-creació de serveis climàtics per a garantir la seua rellevància, utilitat i acceptació. Ho fa mitjançant l'aplicació d'aquesta metodologia a la conca del Xúquer i al problema del proveïment a la ciutat de València en escenaris futurs de canvi climàtic. Aquesta aplicació permet extraure conclusions sobre les formes de co-crear aquest tipus de productes i les millors formes d'abordar la co-creació de serveis climàtics en sectors clau.[EN] Climate services result from combining climate data and other relevant information and are valuable for climate change adaptation or mitigation decision-making. Ideally, such services function as a bridge between pure climate data and end-users so that the science is translated into useful and understandable products or services. Climate services for adaptation can be developed at individual, local and regional scales and help communities and individuals prepare for and cope with the effects of climate change. Climate services have often been developed by climate data experts without considering the specific needs of end-users. This top-down approach often means that the most relevant information is not used in their creation and the end-user perspective is neglected during the design process. The disconnect between potential users of climate services and the products themselves has led to a lack of uptake and use of climate services, even among those users most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Co-creation of climate services with the users who will use them can help to address many of the challenges described above. By involving users in the design and development of services, it is easier to make them relevant, tailored to their needs and easy to use. This can help raise awareness and understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and build trust in the services provided. In addition, co-creating these services can help develop more sustainable business models for climate services: by involving users in developing and financing services, business models based on mutual benefit and shared ownership can be created. This can contribute to making services sustainable and able to continue to be provided in the long term. Co-creation can ultimately help to ensure that services are seen as relevant and valuable to users, and that users are willing to invest the time and resources to use them on a sustained basis over time. This thesis aims to contribute to developing effective, user-driven climate services for climate change adaptation, with a focus on the water sector. Promoting the co-creation of climate services aims to ensure that adaptation strategies are tailored to the specific needs of different users of climate services, and to build resilience and capacity in organisations and communities. The case study consists of co-creating a climate service to assess climate change impacts on the water supply system of Valencia and its metropolitan area. The climate service was created jointly with the local water supply company of Valencia (EMIVASA), in the context of the INNOVA project. To carry out this analysis, a system dynamics model of the Júcar basin, capable of representing the complex interrelationships of the system over time, was developed and combined with a water quality model of the Tous reservoir to perform the analysis on the quality of the future resource available. This work demonstrates the value of involving end-users in co-creating climate services to ensure their relevance, utility and acceptability. It does so by applying this methodology to the Júcar river basin and to the problem of supplying the city of Valencia in future climate change scenarios. This application allows conclusions to be drawn on ways to co-create this type of product and the best ways to address the co-creation of climate services in critical sectors, such as the drinking water supply.This research was supported by the INNOVA, ADAPTAMED, SÀPIDES and WATER4CAST projects. The Innovation of Climate Services (INNOVA) project is funded by the European Research Area for Climate Services Consortium (ER4CS) and the Agencia Estatal de Investigación of the Spanish government (GA: 690462; PCIN-2017-066). The ADAPTAMED project is funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación of Spain (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), including EU FEDER funds. SÀPIDES (INNEST/2021/276) is funded by the Agència Valenciana de la Innovació (AVI). Lastly, the WATER4CAST project (PROMETEO/2021/074) from the Conselleria de Innovación, Universidades, Ciencia y Sociedad Digital de la Comunitat Valenciana. The data supporting this research includes global and regional climate projections obtained from EURO-CORDEX and Copernicus (Jacob et al., 2014; Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2017), inflows for the modelled sub-basins (MAPAMA, 2018), water transfers, users, demands, reservoirs information and water quality parameters from CHJ (Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar, 2019), and air temperature and precipitation data from AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological and Climate Agency, 2019).Rubio Martín, A. (2023). Development of climate services for the management of Mediterranean water resource systems: case study of the Júcar system and Valencia water supply [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/194057Compendi

Desarrollo y aplicación de un modelo de dinámica de sistemas para la gestión integral del sistema Júcar

[EN] System dynamics is a methodology for the symbolic representation of complex systems by the mathematical definition of variables and their relationships. Over the past 50 years, system dynamics has been consolidated as a methodology applied to fields as diverse as economics, ecology, politics, sociology and resource management. Its application to the field of water resources has grown significantly over the last two decades. Some features of this approach are its flexibility which has allowed its application to diverse fields , transparency and the ability to integrate both quantitative and qualitative information. The aim of this work is the creation of a system dynamics model of the Júcar system in Vensim PLE. By doing so, we intend to demonstrate the feasibility of this methodology to represent complex systems, to explicitly define operating rules and to generate dynamic indexes of the system statusits explicit operational rules and dynamics index , and to lay a foundation for the study of the system from the logic of system dynamics.[ES] La dinámica de sistemas es una metodología para la representación simbólica de sistemas complejos mediante la definición matemática de variables y de sus relaciones. En los últimos 50 años la dinámica de sistemas se ha consolidado como una metodología aplicada a campos tan diversos como la economía, ecología, política, sociología y gestión de recursos. Su aplicación al campo de los recursos hídricos ha crecido de forma notable durante las últimas dos décadas. Algunas de las características de esta metodología son su flexibilidad que ha permitido su aplicación a campos de muy diversa índole , su transparencia y la capacidad para integrar información tanto cuantitativa como cualitativa. El objetivo de este trabajo es la creación de un modelo en dinámica de sistemas del sistema Júcar utilizando el software Vensim PLE. Se busca con esto demostrar la viabilidad de esta metodología para representar sistemas de recursos hídricos complejos, definir de forma explícita sus normas de operación y generar índices que definan el estado del sistema de forma dinámica. De este modo, se pretende asentar una base para el estudio del sistema desde la lógica propia de la dinámica de sistemas.Rubio Martín, A. (2016). Desarrollo y aplicación de un modelo de dinámica de sistemas para la gestión integral del sistema Júcar. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/74562TFG

Structuring Climate Service Co-Creation Using a Business Model Approach

[EN] Climate services are tools or products that aim to support climate-informed decision making for the adaptation to climate change. The market for climate services is dominated by public institutions, despite the efforts made by the European Commission to increase private enterprise in the market. The business model perspective has been proposed as a framework for enabling market growth through the development of appropriate business models for the provision of climate services. However, there is a lack of structured knowledge on how to approach climate service design and development from a business model standpoint. In this contribution, we first analyze the role of stakeholders in the design and development of climate services and identify opportunities for engaging users in the creation process. Afterwards, we explain our approach to climate service design and development using a business model perspective. To illustrate the proposed approach, we describe the co-creation of a climate service to support the adaptation to climate change of the urban water supply system in Valencia, Spain, and discuss the main findings and lessons learned from applying this approach.We acknowledge the European Research Area for Climate Services consortium (ER4CS) and the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion for their financial support to this research under the INNOVA project (Grant Agreement: 690462; PCIN-2017-066). This study has also been partially funded by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00) from the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades (MICIU) of Spain.Rubio-Martín, A.; Máñez-Costa, M.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Celliers, L.; Llario, F.; Macián Cervera, VJ. (2021). Structuring Climate Service Co-Creation Using a Business Model Approach. Earth's Future. 9(10):1-18. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002181S11891

Advancing Co-governance through Framing Processes: Insights from Action-Research in the Requena-Utiel Aquifer (Eastern Spain)

In recent years, co-management has been highlighted in the scientific literature as fundamental strategy for groundwater control. However, the development of this institutional architecture is complex and presents important pitfalls and challenges. In this article we analyse the recent experience of co-management in the Requena-Utiel aquifer (Spain), based on a participatory action research. It aims to advance the co-management of groundwater by facilitating a consensus among users, as a basis on which to support future self-governance measures. We used a cognitive framing approach, developed through interviews with local stakeholders, to analyse the conflicting visions on the aquifer management; and we developed an interactive framing approach, through workshops, to achieve a shared understanding of aquifer co-management. The research demonstrates the usefulness of these approaches to promote collective action and co-management in groundwater. It showed the key role that information and transparency play in gaining shared understanding and improving co-management; but also the difficulties of users in establishing agreements that question the current status quo on the aquifer

Living Lab on improving groundwater governance in the Requena-Utiel aquifer

Resumen del trabajo presentado en el 7th IAHR Europe Congress, celebrado en Atenas (Grecia) del 07 al 09 de septiembre de 2022.The European research projects InTheMED and eGROUNDWATER share the aim of promoting innovative and sustainable management of the Mediterranean aquifers. One of the ways to achieve this objective is the creation of dynamic spaces in which all interested actors can cooperate, experiment and evaluate innovative ideas, different scenarios and new technologies on real cases of interest. In this regard, a living lab on improving groundwater governance, coordinated by the eGROUNDWATER team with the participation of the InTheMED team, was organized including all stakeholders who play a significant role in the management of the Requena-Utiel aquifer, which is a shared pilot site of the two projects. The aim of the living lab was to identify, together with stakeholders, problems and mitigation measures, and to evaluate possible strategies to satisfy the individual needs according to a sustainable use of the groundwater resources.Research financed by the InTheMED project, which is part of the PRIMA Programme supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (GA n. 1923). It has also received funding from the eGROUNDWATER project (GA n. 1921), part of the PRIMA programme supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme

Climate services for water utilities: Lessons learnt from the case of the urban water supply to Valencia, Spain

[EN] Climate change projections in many regions of the world show a critical reduction in precipitation and a significant rise in temperatures in the following decades. This change may affect the operation of water utilities in arid and semi-arid parts of the globe. The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on water resources. In this paper, we reflect on the challenges that the water utility sector may experience during the upcoming decades to continue providing its essential service under the new climate scenario. Our reasoning is based on the lessons learned during the co-creation of a climate service with the water utility company of Valencia (Spain) within the framework of the EU ERA4CS project INNOVA. The joint vision of climate, water management researchers and water utility operators resulted in a multi-scale framework for evaluating the vulnerability of the water utility to climate change. The modelling framework couples water quantity and quality and their interaction in a chain of models. The proposed framework forced all parties to consider the issue of the temporal and spatial scales, and the importance of choosing and defining the boundaries of the problem. The analytical framework has three distinct elements: (1) a combination of climate projections; (2) hydrological and water resource management model of the river basin system; (3) reservoir management and water quality model. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were considered in two timeframes for the analysis: the short term (2020¿2040) and the medium term (2041¿2069). The results show a significant reduction in water availability combined with an increased frequency and intensity of phytoplankton blooms and anoxia episodes. These changes result in the deterioration of the reservoir trophic state, shifting from ultraoligotrophic-oligotrophic (control period) to oligotrophic-mesotrophic (RCP 8.5). The example shows how the combination of models on different scales and the involvement of experts in the co-creation process can result in a customized climate service that provides valuable information to water utility operators that can be used to reduce the system¿s vulnerability to climate change.This research was supported by the INNOVA, ADAPTAMED, SAPIDES, and WATER4CAST projects. The Innovation of Climate Services (INNOVA) project is funded by the European Research Area for Climate Services Consortium (ER4CS) and the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion of the Spanish government (GA: 690462; PCIN-2017-066). The ADAP-TAMED project is funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion of Spain (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), including EU FEDER funds. SAPIDES (INNEST/2021/276) is funded by the Agencia Valenciana de la Innovacio (AVI). Lastly, WATER4CAST (PROMETEO/2021/074) is funded by the Generalitat Valenciana through the Conselleria de Innovacion, Universidades, Ciencia y Sociedad Digital.Rubio-Martín, A.; Llario, F.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Macián Cervera, VJ. (2023). Climate services for water utilities: Lessons learnt from the case of the urban water supply to Valencia, Spain. Climate Services. 29:1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.1003381132

Multi-stakeholder participation in the diagnosis and measures of the Requena-Utiel groundwater body towards sustainability transition, Valencia, Spain

Trabajo presentado en Sustain Valencia 2022. Achieving Sustainable Groundwater Management: Promising Directions and Unresolved Challenges, celebrado en Valencia (España) del 06 al 08 de octubre de 2022.The academic community focused on water governance is claiming that greater innovation is needed towards sustainability transition. Several participatory processes and methodological frameworks have been implemented under different approaches. There have also been highly appreciated adaptation approaches based on coproduction of knowledge, alternative scenarios and bottom-up formulas. In particular, groundwater management and governance measures related to top-down policies have been identified as a key issue. Recognising the global overexploitation of aquifers, the academia blames these inefficient top-down policies, both in the World and in the case of Spain. To improve the scientific evidence on this matter, this piece of research work has the aim to analyse the Requena-Utiel groundwater body through the lens of a plurality of actors involved in this aquifer of the Júcar River Basin in the province of Valencia in Spain

Subcutaneous anti-COVID-19 hyperimmune immunoglobulin for prevention of disease in asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trialResearch in context

Summary: Background: Anti-COVID-19 hyperimmune immunoglobulin (hIG) can provide standardized and controlled antibody content. Data from controlled clinical trials using hIG for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 outpatients have not been reported. We assessed the safety and efficacy of subcutaneous anti-COVID-19 hyperimmune immunoglobulin 20% (C19-IG20%) compared to placebo in preventing development of symptomatic COVID-19 in asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: We did a multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, in asymptomatic unvaccinated adults (≥18 years of age) with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 5 days between April 28 and December 27, 2021. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive a blinded subcutaneous infusion of 10 mL with 1 g or 2 g of C19-IG20%, or an equivalent volume of saline as placebo. The primary endpoint was the proportion of participants who remained asymptomatic through day 14 after infusion. Secondary endpoints included the proportion of individuals who required oxygen supplementation, any medically attended visit, hospitalisation, or ICU, and viral load reduction and viral clearance in nasopharyngeal swabs. Safety was assessed as the proportion of patients with adverse events. The trial was terminated early due to a lack of potential benefit in the target population in a planned interim analysis conducted in December 2021. ClinicalTrials.gov registry: NCT04847141. Findings: 461 individuals (mean age 39.6 years [SD 12.8]) were randomized and received the intervention within a mean of 3.1 (SD 1.27) days from a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. In the prespecified modified intention-to-treat analysis that included only participants who received a subcutaneous infusion, the primary outcome occurred in 59.9% (91/152) of participants receiving 1 g C19-IG20%, 64.7% (99/153) receiving 2 g, and 63.5% (99/156) receiving placebo (difference in proportions 1 g C19-IG20% vs. placebo, −3.6%; 95% CI -14.6% to 7.3%, p = 0.53; 2 g C19-IG20% vs placebo, 1.1%; −9.6% to 11.9%, p = 0.85). None of the secondary clinical efficacy endpoints or virological endpoints were significantly different between study groups. Adverse event rate was similar between groups, and no severe or life-threatening adverse events related to investigational product infusion were reported. Interpretation: Our findings suggested that administration of subcutaneous human hyperimmune immunoglobulin C19-IG20% to asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection was safe but did not prevent development of symptomatic COVID-19. Funding: Grifols