Technical progress and endogenous growth: an econometric analysis using panel data on the MENA región

From the dawn of the Christian era until the industrial revolution, the standard of living saw little to no change and remained relatively stable during this period. However, since the industrial revolution, living standards have experienced sustained growth up to the present day. The Solow model attributes this growth to technical progress, but where does this progress come from? To truly understand economic growth, we must therefore go beyond the Solow model and attempt to explain technical progress itself. The objective of this work is to identify and specify the factors that may explain technical progress (in other words, what causes growth in A?). To this end, initially, we relied on a set of theoretical works ( (Romer, 1990; Lucas, 1988; Barro, 1990; Aghion, Blundell, Griffith, Howitt, & Prantl, 2009), among others) which led us to a set of recommendations. Therefore, in a second step, we proceed to an empirical analysis using panel data to test the significance of the impact of this set of recommendations on technical progress in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Our econometric results show that there is still much to be done in the MENA region to catch up with the United States, Germany, France, or Japan: the establishment of a research and innovation system based on the needs of economic and social development, an increase in the budget allocated to research, massive investment by the private sector in universities, the strengthening and creation of institutions, etc

Technical Progress and Endogenous Growth: An Econometric Analysis Using Panel Data on the MENA Region

From the dawn of the Christian era until the Industrial Revolution, the standard of living saw little to no change and remained relatively stable during this period. However, since the Industrial Revolution, living standards have experienced sustained growth up to the present day. The Solow model attributes this growth to technical progress, but where does this progress come from? To truly understand economic growth, we must therefore go beyond the Solow model and attempt to explain technical progress itself. The objective of this work is to identify and specify the factors that may explain technical progress (in other words, what causes growth in A (PGF)?). To this end, initially, we relied on a set of theoretical works ( (Romer, 1990; Lucas, 1988; Barro, 1990; Aghion, Blundell, Griffith, Howitt, & Prantl, 2009), among others) which led us to a set of recommendations. Therefore, in a second step, we proceed to an empirical analysis using panel data to test the significance of the impact of this set of recommendations on technical progress in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Our econometric results show that there is still much to be done in the MENA region to catch up with the United States, Sweeden, Switzerland, Japan, Germany or France: the establishment of a research and innovation system based on the needs of economic and social development, an increase in the budget allocated to research, massive investment by the private sector in universities, the strengthening and creation of institutions, etc

Theta models for daily pandemic data

Forecasting techniques are critical for developing better strategies and making timely judgments. As a result, both epidemiologists and statisticians got interested in anticipating the COVID-19 pandemic, which is why we decided to use theta approaches because of their predictive power. The major goal of this research is to determine which of the statistical Theta-methods is the best appropriate for predicting in the case of Covid 19 for the five nations analyzed. performance in forecasting for the other countries under investigation. These strategies make it possible to assess the past in order to make more accurate forecasts about the future. Predicted trends in a phenomenon over time may aid in planning for potential risks and worst-case scenarios. For the first time, a set of algorithms known as theta models is used to forecast the performance of COVID-19 pandemic data in this study. Then we used data from five countries: the United Kingdom, South Africa, Malaysia, Morocco, and Russia. The results suggest that the traditional theta approach is more accurate for data from the United Kingdom, which has a lot of variability. For the other countries analyzed, however, the dynamic optimized theta model performs better in forecasting

L’effet des fluctuations des prix du pétrole sur la dynamique de l’inflation au Maroc : Une approche de modélisation stochastique

Suite à la crise de la Covid-19 et au moment où le monde se préparait pour la relance économique, le Maroc subissait de nombreux chocs extérieurs (sécheresse, choc pétrolier). En conséquence, sa situation macroéconomique s’est nettement dégradée depuis le début de l’année 2022. Le pays a été submergé par une crise inflationniste qui s’est installée principalement à cause de sa forte dépendance aux marchés extérieurs pour son approvisionnement en produits alimentaires et pétroliers. Cette dépendance a fortement contribué à la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires et d’autres biens de consommation, entraînant une inflation-record. La crise de l’inflation, qui à ses débuts semblait être une crise temporaire causée principalement par l’inflation importée, est devenue, au deuxième trimestre de l’année 2022, le miroir de bon nombre de problèmes structurels dont souffre l’économie marocaine. Devant ce fait de dépendance aux marchés extérieurs, l’économie nationale souffrira dans la prochaine décennie des fluctuations et transformations géopolitiques que connaît le monde. Il est donc crucial de disposer d’un modèle adéquat pour étudier et anticiper l’impact des changements drastiques sur la dynamique de l’inflation, car cela permet de mieux comprendre les relations entre les variables économiques et de prendre les mesures appropriées pour en atténuer les effets indésirables. L’objectif de cette étude est de modéliser l’effet de l’incertitude sur la dynamique de l’inflation au Maroc. La volatilité des prix du pétrole a été choisie comme un proxy fiable de l’état d’incertitude affectant les prix. En effet, les périodes de hausse des prix sont souvent accompagnées de chocs pétroliers et/ou d’une hausse des prix du pétrole. Dans ce travail, nous nous sommes intéressés à l’investigation de la relation potentielle entre la dynamique inflationniste et l’incertitude induite par les chocs pétroliers. Nos tests empiriques confirment une relation significative entre l’inflation et la volatilité du prix du pétrole. A cet égard, un modèle à volatilité stochastique a été proposé et analysé afin de modéliser la dynamique du taux d’inflation et la volatilité du prix du pétrole. En plus de la capacité de simulation qu’offre ce modèle, son ajustement offre la possibilité de prévoir l’inflation en utilisant la fonction de réponse impulsionnelle associée au modèle

Persistence and extinction for stochastic HBV epidemic model with treatment cure rate

With the current struggles of the world nowadays with several epidemics, modeling the dynamics of disease outbreaks has become much more important than any time before. In this context, the present paper aims at studying a stochastic hepatitis B virus epidemic model with treatment cure rate. Our model consists of three epidemic compartments describing the interaction between the susceptible, the infected and the recovered individuals; an SIR model where the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible ones with a transmission rate perturbed by white noise. Our paper begins by establishing that our hepatitis B stochastic model has unique global solution. It moves then to giving sufficient conditions for the stochastic extinction and persistence of the hepatitis B disease. Finally, our paper provides some numerical results to support the analytical study, showing numerically that the treatment cure rate facilitates the extinction of the hepatitis B disease among the population