ON EXTREME VALUE THEORY IN MODELING NIGERIA MARINE AND AVIATION INSURANCE CLASS OF BUSINESS

Extreme value theory is applied to model extreme occurrences, and it is applied in business and finance to measure tail risk. Marine and aviation class of insurance business is an important component of non-life business because it insures all risks relating to aviation and marine vessels which play a significant role in the economic development of Nigeria. Recent claims experience has necessitated the investigation of tail risks with a small probability of occurrence but with high potential impact on a company’s survival. The study employs the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the minimum expected claims for the marine and aviation insurance business using historical claims data. Diagnostics plot like the mean excess plot suggest the threshold to choose, to fit a Generalized Pareto model based on EVT and the excess distributions were obtained over a chosen threshold. Linear Q-Q plots and tail plots reveal that the parametric model fits the data well. VaR estimate was finally obtained using the extreme value method at a 5% confidence interval and the empirical results show that Extreme VaR is most suitable to calculate VaR as against the Historical and Gaussian methods. This will guide proper underwriting process and loss reserving in this class of business

Impact of Thrift and Loan Associations in Reducing Poverty for Economic Development of Farmers in Lafia Local Government Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria

In rural areas, low level people hardly ever get access to credit facilities and farm inputs due to their socio economic status, thus the poverty level of people in rural areas continue to worsen. This study was carried out to examine the impact of thrift and loan associations in reducing poverty for economic development of farmers in Lafia Local Government Area of Nasarawa State. A multi-stage sampling technique was used in selecting the respondents. Data were collected through questionnaire and interview schedule. Tools for analyses were descriptive statistics and multiple regressions. Findings revealed that household size, farm income, non-farm income, educational level and interest rate charged on credit were the significant factors that influenced the level of participation of members in thrift and loan associations. The study concludes that Micro-lending through thrift and loans associations has been considered as the solution for poverty reduction. It was therefore recommended that thrift and loan association should be supported to grow their wealth sufficiently through accumulation of enough  institutional  capital  to  finance funded  assets,  provide  cushion  to  absorb  losses, link up farmers with sources of input production thereby reducing poverty among members. Keywords: impact, thrift and loans, association, poverty, economic, developmen

Impact of Thrift and Loan Associations in Reducing Poverty for Economic Development of Farmers in Lafia Local Government Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria

In rural areas, low level people hardly ever get access to credit facilities and farm inputs due to their socio economic status, thus the poverty level of people in rural areas continue to worsen. This study was carried out to examine the impact of thrift and loan associations in reducing poverty for economic development of farmers in Lafia Local Government Area of Nasarawa State. A multi-stage sampling technique was used in selecting the respondents. Data were collected through questionnaire and interview schedule. Tools for analyses were descriptive statistics and multiple regressions. Findings revealed that household size, farm income, non-farm income, educational level and interest rate charged on credit were the significant factors that influenced the level of participation of members in thrift and loan associations. The study concludes that Micro-lending through thrift and loans associations has been considered as the solution for poverty reduction. It was therefore recommended that thrift and loan association should be supported to grow their wealth sufficiently through accumulation of enough  institutional  capital  to  finance funded  assets,  provide  cushion  to  absorb  losses, link up farmers with sources of input production thereby reducing poverty among members. Keywords: impact, thrift and loans, association, poverty, economic, developmen

EXPLORING THE METHODS OF COINTEGRATION PROCEDURES USING STOCK PRICES

Stationary models are an essential class of stochastic models for describing time series data which have received a great attention. In reality, however, business and economic data are non-stationary multivariate time series that are often better understood by cointegration analysis. This study investigates the cointegration testing methods of Engle-Granger two-step estimation technique, Phillip-Ouliaris test, and Johansen's multivariate test. The stock prices of selected companies in Nigeria from 2008-2014 are used in the study. Findings revealed that the three techniques produced different results and that the Johansen's method and Engle-Granger two steps procedure exhibits higher efficiencies than Phillips-Ouliaris methods but their efficiency is dependent on the number of variables and correct selection

Determinants of utilisation of traditional birth attendant services by pregnant women in Ogbomoso, Nigeria

Background: This study was designed to assess the determinants of utilization of Traditional Birth Attendants (TBAs) services by pregnant women in different communities in Ogbomoso, Nigeria.Methods: This was a community- based cross-sectional study. Fisher's formula was used to calculate the sample size and a total of 270 eligible pregnant women were enrolled for the study using multistage sampling technique. Data was collected using pretested structured interviewer-administered questionnaire. Data analysis was done using SPSS version 20 and results were presented in frequencies and percentages.Results: Factors found to have a significant influence on the utilization of TBA services in this study include: low educational status (p <0.001), lower socioeconomic status (p <0.001), and compassionate care given by the TBAs (p=0.004). Other factors include service proximity and lower cost of TBA services.Conclusions: The impact of TBAs and their services cannot be overemphasized in the present state of maternal and child health in Nigeria.  Lower educational status among others has been found to be a strong predictor of utilization of TBA services. There is, therefore, the need to improve the educational and socioeconomic status of women in order to allow them to access quality health care services that will safeguard their well-being. Inculcating compassionate care into orthodox healthcare delivery will go a long way to improve patronage and discourage TBA utilization

Applications of Space Technology for Accelerated Infrastructures Development for Rural Areas Development in Nigeria

Rural to urban migration still persists in Nigeria despite government’s claim of rural development programs. This situation if not checked portends negative signal for the already over-populated urban areas, particularly in areas of food security, sanitation, housing, crimes, etc. The development of rural areas is measured by the availability of infrastructures and economic opportunities that are available to the people. These infrastructures include: transportation infrastructure, educational infrastructure, healthcare infrastructure, energy infrastructure, water supply/sanitation infrastructure, information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure and so on. Rural areas in Nigeria urgently require accelerated infrastructure development to alleviate poverty. When this is done rapid growth is ensured and poverty is drastically reduced. The world today has become increasingly reliant on information and communication technologies (ICT) and with it comes the need for societies and communities to stay connected and be integrated into the global information super highway. Space technology today has also become an integral part of global information infrastructure, connecting people across the world and serving communications needs of governments, businesses and individuals. For Nigeria to be technologically developed, the “digital divide” (that is the imbalance between urban and rural dwellers in which the rural dwellers have far lesser access to the same quality of knowledge), information, and education resources that are more readily available to urban areas because of the absence of required communication infrastructure need to be removed. The digital divide brings a virtual, but real impediment to the advancement of the society and individuals in remote rural settlements. This paper seeks to discuss the applications of space technology for accelerated rural infrastructures development in rural areas in Nigeri

Comparative analysis of the performance of hydrophobically associating polymer, xanthan and guar gum as mobility control agent, in enhanced oil recovery application.

This study aimed at evaluating the performance of hydrophobically associating polymer (HAPAM), xanthan gum, and guar gum in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes. Their performances in terms of oil recovery applications were investigated through rheological behavior analysis and core flooding experiments. Rheological studies reveal shear thinning characteristics with HAPAM showing superior rheological behavior at elevated shear rates for all concentrations tested. Core flooding tests were conducted on different sandstone core samples with similar petrophysical properties to evaluate the EOR performance using the three polymers. Cumulative oil recovered after waterflood implies that HAPAM shows better oil recovery capability with 41.1, 62.4, and 63.5% oil recovery compared to xanthan achieving 32.8, 33.7, and 56.2% and guar gum achieving 41.8, 57.1, and 61.2% oil recovery using the three concentrations; concentration 1, 2 and 3 (1,000, 4,000 and 6,000 ppm), respectively. The superior performance by HAPAM was also evident in its lesser amount of permeability damage after flooding with 28.3% concentration

TESTING FOR MULTIPLE UPPER OUTLIERS IN DISTRIBUTION SAMPLES: A STUDY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE DATA

In this study, the existences of k-upper outliers are investigated in distribution samples of gamma, Normal and exponential by carrying out a simulation of ten thousand at different values of n using algorithm introduced by Tietjen-Moore, test statistics, and critical values were equally estimated from the algorithm. A Normal Q-Q plot was made which aims at distinguishing a data set that follows a normal distribution and one that deviates from normality. The algorithm was applied to Nigeria-US dollars foreign exchange rate, both on raw and logarithmic transformed data. The simulation study reveals the existence of upper outliers more in Gamma and exponential samples than the Normal sample. Empirical analysis shows that there are upper outliers in the raw data set but no upper outliers are found in the transformed data. The result in this paper would help the researcher in business and economics to take time to explore data before use and properly transform accordingly to avoid error in estimation

HOST PLANTS OF THE COTTON MEALYBUG, PHENACOCCUS SOLENOPSIS TINSLEY (HOMOPTERA: PSEUDOCOCCIDAE) IN THREE SELECTED TOWNS OF NIGERIA, AND ITS INFESTATION PATTERN

Reconnaissance surveys were carried out for field infestation of Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley from 2006 to 2010 in seventy five (75) vegetable gardens located in three (3) towns– Ogbomoso, Abeokuta and Ibadan in Nigeria. No cotton mealybug infestation was observed in Abeokuta and Ibadan, but twenty four (24) plants in 16 different families were observed as its hosts in Ogbomoso area. Of the 24 species, weeds constituted 45.8%, vegetables 29.1%, herbs 12.5%, cereals 4.2%, fruit trees 4.2% and pulse 4.2% each. Infestations started on the abasial leaf surface and advanced to the mid-ribs, petiole, young and succulent stems and buds. Corchorus olitorius and Amaranthus hybridus were the most susceptible of the trialled plant species with heavy root infestation in addition to that of the leaf. On heavily infested plants, certain ants were found together with P. solenopsis; on cowpea however, Aphis craccivora and the ants formed a complex with the mealybug on the flower buds. Of the three towns surveyed, P. solenopsis could be said to be restricted to backyard gardens around Ogbomoso at the moment. However, a nation-wide survey is very necessary now to determine the current status of the mealybug in Nigeria.Â

Livelihood Diversification among Arable Farm Households in the Forest Zone of Oyo State, Nigeria

The study assessed the livelihood diversification strategies among the arable farm households in the forest zone of Oyo State, Nigeria. A 3-stage random sampling technique was used to select a total of 160 arable farm households around some selected forest reserves for the study. A well-structured questionnaire was used for the collection of data. The analytical tools employed were descriptive statistics, livelihood index, and logistic regression model. The findings of the study revealed that majority of the respondents were male (57.5%), educated (81.2%), married (71.9%), and had a household size of about 7 members. Non timber forest products (NTFP) gathering (39.38%) was the most preferred livelihood diversification strategy followed by transportation business (16.88%), petty trading (13.75%), artisanal work (12.5%), firewood sales (6.25%), wage employed (4.38%), charcoal production (3.75%), timber sales (1.88%), and hunting (1.25%) in that order respectively. The forest-related livelihoods accounted for 52.5% of the predominant livelihood strategies, whereas, non-forest-related livelihoods accounted for 47.5%. The significant predictors of the probability of engaging in forest-related strategies include; primary education, and secondary education (10% each); tertiary education, and household size (1% each), and age of household head (5%). The study recommends the intensification of local capacities of the farmers such as access to education and training facilities to enable them access and process information, and credit to enhance their livelihood and minimize forest dependence