What nexus exists between exchange rate and trade balance? The case of Nigeria vis-à-vis UK, US and Hong Kong

The role of exchange rate movements in determining the trading position of a country and the ultimate welfare of its people vis-à-vis its trading partners is enormous. Consequently, this study is conducted to examine the nature of the trading relationship between Nigeria and its trading partners in three continents-North America, Europe and Asia. The study specifically focuses on how the fluctuation of naira vis-à-vis the pound sterling, dollar and Yuan affects Nigeria's trading position in relation to UK, US and Hong Kong (China). Quarterly data that span the period from 1981 to 2015 were used and linear and Non-linear ARDL estimation techniques were deployed to prove the existence of linear and nonlinear J-Curve. The findings, based on linear ARDL, show no proof of J-Curve in all the models, however, cointegration exists between the trade balance and the exchange rate dynamics. In non-linear ARDL, the existence of J-Curve is only observed in Nigeria-Hong Kong model. However, the findings show that there is both the existence of cointegration and the short-run and the long-run asymmetric nexus between exchange rate dynamics and trade balance in all the models. The overarching implication of the finding is that devaluation of Naira will not improve Nigeria’s trading position vis-à-vis trading partners considered

Modeling Gasoline Demand with Structural Breaks: New Evidence from Nigeria

This paper extends previous studies in modeling and estimating demand for gasoline for Nigeria from 1977 to 2008. The ingenious attempt of this study, contrast to earlier studies on Nigeria and other developing countries, lies in its assumption of structural breaks in the long run relationship among the variables employed. The study tests for the possibility of structural breaks/regime shifts and parameter instability in the gasoline demand function in Nigeria using more recent and robust techniques. While the conventional residual-based cointegration tests employed fail to identify any meaningful long-run relationship in the gasoline function, the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration approach confirms the cointegration relationships despite the breakpoints. The elasticity estimates also follow the a priori expectations being inelastic both in the long- and short-run for both price and income. Having identified plausible breaks in the systems, the test does suggest that a structural break in the cointegration vector is important and needs to be taken care of in the specification of gasoline demand functions in Nigeria. It is envisaged, therefore, that substantial policy lessons would be drawn from the findings of this study especially in the current phase of energy industry deregulation in Nigeria. Keywords: Gasoline demand modeling; Structural breaks; Parameter stability; Cointegration JEL Classifications: C13; C22; C5

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely