P-values for non-standard distributions with an application to the DF test

The literature of unit roots and structural breaks has produced numerous tests that follow nonstandard asymptotic distributions. This paper by fitting a seminonparametric model to them proposes a new simple way of calculating the p-values

Liquidity constraints and time non-separable preferences: simulating models with large state spaces

This paper presents an alternative method for the stochastic simulation of nonlinear and possibly non-differentiable models with large state spaces. We compare our method to other existing methods, and show that the accuracy is satisfactory. We then use the method to analyze the features of an intertemporal optimizing consumption-saving model, when the utility function is time non-separable and when liquidity constraints are imposed. Two non-separabilities are studied, habit persistence and durability of the commodity. As the model has no closed-form solution, we compute deterministic and stochastic solution paths. It enables us to compare income and consumption volatility, and to describe the density of consumption under the different hypotheses on the utility function

Liquidity constraints and time non-separable preferences: simulating models with large state spaces.

This paper presents an alternative method for the stochastic simulation of nonlinear and possibly non-differentiable models with large state spaces. We compare our method to other existing methods, and show that the accuracy is satisfactory. We then use the method to analyze the features of an intertemporal optimizing consumption-saving model, when the utility function is time non-separable and when liquidity constraints are imposed. Two non-separabilities are studied, habit persistence and durability of the commodity. As the model has no closed-form solution, we compute deterministic and stochastic solution paths. It enables us to compare income and consumption volatility, and to describe the density of consumption under the different hypotheses on the utility function.Stochastic simulations; Liquidity constraints; Habit formation; Durability;

The effects of taxes and bans on passive smoking

This paper evaluates the effect of excise taxes and bans on smoking in public places on the exposure to tobacco smoke of non-smokers. We use a novel way of quantifying passive smoking: we use data on cotinine concentration- a metabolite of nicotine- measured in a large population of non-smokers over time. Exploiting state and time variation across US states, we reach two important conclusions. First, excise taxes have a significant effect on passive smoking. Second, smoking bans have on average no effects on non smokers. While bans in public transportation or in schools decrease the exposure of non smokers, bans in recreational public places can in fact perversely increase their exposure by displacing smokers to private places where they contaminate non smokers, and in particular young children. Bans affect socioeconomic groups differently: we find that smoking bans increase the exposure of poorer individuals, while it decreases the exposure of richer individuals, leading to widening health disparities.

The Dynamics of Car Sales: A Discrete Choice Approach

Mankiw [1982] explores the Permanent Income Hypothesis implication that durable expenditures follow an ARMA(1,1) representation. He finds that durable expenditures are represented by an AR(1) process which implies that the rate of depreciation of durables, under the PIH model, is 100%. This finding presents a puzzle. Our paper builds on earlier work which attempts to explain this puzzle by considering the aggregation of the discrete dynamic choices of heterogeneous households. We implement this approach by estimating a dynamic discrete choice model of car replacement. We find that through aggregation we can explain both the AR and MA components of Mankiw's results. Further we find that our model is able to match a VAR representation of car sales, prices and income. We find that most of the variation in car sales is due to shocks which influence the replacement probability.

On the identification of the effect of smoking on mortality

This paper considers the identification of the effect of tobacco on mortality. If individuals select into smoking according to some unobserved health characteristic, then estimates of the effect of tobacco on health that do not account for this are biased. We show that using information on mortality, morbidity and smoking, it is possible to control for this selection effect and obtain consistent estimates of the effect of smoking on mortality. We implement our method on Swedish data. We show that there is selection into smoking, and considerable dispersion around the average effect, so that health policies that aim at decreasing smoking prevalence and quantities smoked might have less effect in terms of average number of years of life gained than previously estimated. We also empirically show that selection into smoking has increased over the last fifty years with the availability of information on the dangers of smoking, so that future studies comparing smokers and non smokers will spuriously reveal a worsening effect of tobacco on health if they fail to control for selection.Health, Duration, Smoking, Selection, Mortality, Life Expectancy, Causality.

Market regulation and firm performance: the case of smoking bans in the UK

This paper analyzes the effects of a ban on smoking in public places upon firms and consumers. It presents a theoretical model and tests its predictions using unique data from before and after the introduction of smoking bans in the UK. Cigarette smoke is a public bad, and smokers and non-smokers differ in their valuation of smoke-free amenities. Consumer heterogeneity implies that the market equilibrium may result in too much uniformity, whereas social optimality requires a mix of smoking and non-smoking pubs (which can be operationalized via licensing). If the market equilibrium has almost all pubs permitting smoking (as is the case in the data) then a blanket ban reduces pub sales, profits, and consumer welfare. We collect survey data from public houses and find that the Scottish smoking ban (introduced in March 2006) reduced pub sales and harmed medium run profitability. An event study analysis of the stock market performance of pub-holding companies corroborates the negative effects of the smoking ban on firm performance.Regulation; smoking ban; market provision of quality; sales; prices; profitability; stock market performance.

Market Regulation and Firm Performance: The Case of Smoking Bans in the UK

This paper analyzes the effects of a ban on smoking in public places upon firms and consumers. Analysis of survey data from public houses finds that the Scottish smoking ban (introduced in March 2006) reduced pub sales and harmed medium run profitability. An event study analysis of the stock market performance of pub-holding companies corroborates the negative effects of the smoking ban on firm performance. We develop a model of public good provision by firms to offer an interpretation of these findings. In the context of smoking, the public good aspect and consumer heterogeneity in preferences regarding smoking appear to be central to the problem. The model allows us to examine the appropriate form of optimal regulation and to study the welfare effect of a smoking ban. The optimal policy response ensures that some pubs be permitted to allow smoking while others are not.regulation; smoking ban; market provision of quality; sales; prices; profitability; stock market performance

The impact of income shocks on health: evidence from cohort data

We study the effect of permanent income innovations on health for a prime-aged population. Using information on more than half a million individuals sampled over a twenty-five year period in three different cross-sectional surveys we aggregate data by date-of-birth cohort to construct a 'synthetic cohort' dataset with details of income, expenditure, socio-demographic factors, health outcomes and selected risk factors. We then exploit structural and arguably exogenous changes in cohort incomes over the eighties and nineties to uncover causal effects of permanent income shocks on health. We find that such income innovations have little effects on health, but do affect health behaviour and mortality.