Valuing Catastrophic Citrus Losses

Courts are often required to estimate changes in welfare to agricultural operations from catastrophic events. For example, courts must assign damages in lawsuits, such as with pesticide drift cases, or determine "just compensation" when the government takes private land for public use, as with the removal of dairy farms from environmentally sensitive land or destruction of canker-contaminated citrus trees. In economics, the traditional method of quantifying producer losses is estimating changes in producer welfare, but courts rarely use this method. Instead, they turn to substitute valuation methods that may not fully capture welfare changes, such as changes in land value, tree replacement value, and total revenue. This study examines various measures for valuing the back-to-back catastrophic freezes that occurred in the Florida citrus industry in the 1980s. We first use the traditional method to determine the welfare change due to a freeze (1) for a citrus grove that loses one crop and is able to return to full production the next year, and (2) the lower measure of welfare loss due to a citrus grove that loses all of its trees and is abandoned or is replanted. The lower measure is used to simulate the legal doctrine of avoidable consequences. These measures are then compared to substitute valuation measures that have been used by courts to determine welfare changes. For case 1, total revenue overestimates losses by 35.6%. For case 2, total revenue overestimates losses by 55.3%, tree replacement value underestimates losses by 93.6%, and changes in land value underestimates losses by 13.2%.citrus, perennial crops, catastrophic loss, damages, freeze, Crop Production/Industries,

Valuing Catastrophic Losses for Perennial Agricultural Crops

Courts are often required to estimate changes in welfare to agricultural operations from catastrophic events. For example, courts must assign damages in lawsuits, such as with pesticide drift cases, or determine 'just compensation' when the government takes private land for public use, as with the removal of dairy farms from environmentally sensitive land or destruction of canker-contaminated citrus trees. In economics, the traditional method of estimating changes in producer welfare is the computation of lost producer surplus, but courts rarely use this method. Instead, they turn to substitute valuation methods that may not fully capture welfare change, such as changes in land value, tree replacement value, and total revenue. This study examines various measures for valuing the back-to-back catastrophic freezes that occurred in the Florida citrus industry in the 1980s. We first use the traditional method to determine the welfare change due to a freeze (1) for a citrus grove that loses one crop and is able to return to full production the next year (simulating destruction of annual crops), and (2)the lower measure of welfare loss due to a citrus grove that loses all of its trees and is abandoned or is replanted. The lower measure is used to simulate the legal doctrine of avoidable consequences. These measures are then compared to substitute valuation measures that have been used by courts to determine welfare changes. For case 1, total revenue overestimated losses by 35.6%. For case 2, total revenue overestimates losses by 55.3%, tree replacement value underestimates losses by 93.6%, and changes in land value underestimates losses by 13.2%.citrus, perennial crops, catastrophic loss, damages, freeze, Crop Production/Industries,

Aquaculture and marketing of the Florida Bay Scallop in Crystal River, Florida

The overall goal of this study was to develop a new fishery resource product through open-water aquaculture for the west coast of Florida that would compete as a non-traditional product through market development. Specific objectives were as follows: I. To grow a minimum of 50, 000 juvenile scallops to a minimum market size of40 mm in a cage and float system in the off-shore waters of Crystal River, Florida. 2. To determine the growth rate, survival, and time to market size for the individuals in this system and area to other similar projects like Virginia. 3. To introduce local fishermen and the aquaculture students at Crystal River High School to the hatchery, nursery, and grow-out techniques. 4. To determine the economic and financial characteristics of bay scallop culture in Florida and assess the sensitivity of projected costs and earnings to changes in key technical, managerial, and market related parameters. 5. To determine the market acceptability and necessary marketing strategy for whole bay scallop product in Florida. (PDF has 99 pages.

Model fitting for small skin permeability data sets: hyperparameter optimisation in Gaussian Process Regression

This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: Parivash Ashrafi, Yi Sun, Neil Davey, Roderick G. Adams, Simon C. Wilkinson, and Gary Patrick Moss, ‘Model fitting for small skin permeability data sets: hyperparameter optimisation in Gaussian Process Regression’, Journal of Pharmacy and Pharmacology, Vol. 70 (3): 361-373, March 2018, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/jphp.12863. Under embargo until 17 January 2019. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate how to improve predictions from Gaussian Process models by optimising the model hyperparameters. Methods Optimisation methods, including Grid Search, Conjugate Gradient, Random Search, Evolutionary Algorithm and Hyper-prior, were evaluated and applied to previously published data. Data sets were also altered in a structured manner to reduce their size, which retained the range, or ‘chemical space’ of the key descriptors to assess the effect of the data range on model quality. Key findings The Hyper-prior Smoothbox kernel results in the best models for the majority of data sets, and they exhibited significantly better performance than benchmark quantitative structure–permeability relationship (QSPR) models. When the data sets were systematically reduced in size, the different optimisation methods generally retained their statistical quality, whereas benchmark QSPR models performed poorly. Conclusions The design of the data set, and possibly also the approach to validation of the model, is critical in the development of improved models. The size of the data set, if carefully controlled, was not generally a significant factor for these models and that models of excellent statistical quality could be produced from substantially smaller data sets.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Feeling the Heat: Climate Change is Becoming a Big Factor in Business Decision-making, Risk Assessment

Portland Business Journal Publisher and President Candace Beeke spoke recently with PSU’s Sahan Dissanayake and Jennifer Price, with Moss Adams, about the direct and indirect effects of climate change on business, along with the physical impacts and economic hazards. Here are their insights

Enhancing Communication Within Multi-Generational organizations

In order to capture the essence of employee dynamics within the ever-changing landscape of modern organizations, a naturalistic inquiry using a holistic approach was employed. This technique emphasized the millennial generation’s communication strengths as compared to those of previous generation workers. The perceptions of millennial students, millennial workers, multi-generational managers, university professors, and IT professionals were analyzed through a constant, comparative analysis and grouped so that grounded theory was allowed to emerge. The products of this inquiry include practical solutions aimed at reducing the uncertainty for multi-generational managers, specifically regarding the supervision of younger generation workers. In addition, the results of this study suggest that traditional business communication practices, when coupled with an increased use of information and communication technologies that are specifically designed to bolster collaboration and interpersonal communication, have the potential to maximize internal and external communication effectiveness. The data collected within this study provided an overview of the underlying values and perceptions behind millennial behavior. This synopsis, captured through millennial focus groups and face-to-face interviews, acquiesces to the literature surrounding the millennial generation. As outwardly portrayed, the individuals within this study are technically advanced, goal-oriented people who want the freedom and balance to work efficiently and effectively. In addition, the millennials used herein respect the traditional organizational structure, but only to the limit that its hierarchical nature does not stunt innovation achieved through adaptability and collaboration

Review of sexual health issues linked with cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males

There are well established links between male sexual health conditions and chronic disease, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Erectile dysfunction (ED) and low testosterone are two sexual health conditions that are relatively common among the wider male population. However, there is a lack of data specifically about these sexual problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males. One of the most important findings of research regarding the links between sexual health and chronic disease is that ED can be a risk marker for future CVD or undiagnosed T2DM. Understanding these links can lead to more holistic health care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males, including the benefits of earlier diagnosis and treatment. Raising awareness of these issues and creating safe spaces for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males to talk about sexual health may also prevent some from suffering in silence with a sexual problem. Links to additional knowledge exchange products: The Review of sexual health issues linked with cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males is part of a suite of knowledge exchange products that includes a summary, video, and fact sheet

Prediction of skin penetration using machine learning methods

Improving predictions of the skin permeability coefficient is a difficult problem. It is also an important issue with the increasing use of skin patches as a means of drug delivery. In this work, we applyK-nearest-neighbour regression, single layer networks, mixture of experts and Gaussian processes to predict the permeability coefficient. We obtain a considerable improvement over the quantitative structureactivity relationship (QSARs) predictors. We show that using five features, which are molecular weight, solubility parameter, lipophilicity, the number of hydrogen bonding acceptor and donor groups, can produce better predictions than the one using only lipophilicity and the molecular weight. The Gaussian process regression with five compound features gives the best performance in this work

The importance of understanding the behavioural phenotypes of genetic syndromes associated with intellectual disability

Behavioural phenotype research is of benefit to a large number of children with genetic syndromes and associated developmental delay. This article presents an overview of this research area and demonstrates how understanding pathways between gene disorders and behaviour can inform our understanding of the difficulties individuals with genetic syndromes and developmental delay experience, including self-injurious behaviour, social exploitation, social anxiety, social skills deficits, sensory differences, temper outbursts and repetitive behaviours. In addition, physical health difficulties and their interaction with behaviour are considered. The article demonstrates the complexity involved in assessing a child with a rare genetic syndrome

Let's talk about varying G

It is possible that fundamental constants may not be constant at all. There is a generally accepted view that one can only talk about variations of dimensionless quantities, such as the fine structure constant $\alpha_{\rm e}\equiv e^2/4\pi\epsilon_0\hbar c$. However, constraints on the strength of gravity tend to focus on G itself, which is problematic. We stress that G needs to be multiplied by the square of a mass, and hence, for example, one should be constraining $\alpha_{\rm g}\equiv G m_{\rm p}^2/\hbar c$, where $m_{\rm p}$ is the proton mass. Failure to focus on such dimensionless quantities makes it difficult to interpret the physical dependence of constraints on the variation of G in many published studies. A thought experiment involving talking to observers in another universe about the values of physical constants may be useful for distinguishing what is genuinely measurable from what is merely part of our particular system of units.Comment: 6 pages, Gravity Research Foundation essa