Public Ignorance and Estate Tax Repeal: The Effect of Partisan Differences and Survey Incentives

We re-examine whether the broad support for repeal of the estate tax is a result of citizen ignorance. We find that increasing information about the estate tax or politics in general has very different effects on Republicans and Democrats. While high and low-information Republicans support estate tax repeal, Democratic support is higher among those who know less. However, most highly-informed people in both parties support repeal. We also show that standard surveys overestimate the extent of misinformation about the estate tax. Therefore, “ignorance” is not a compelling explanation of why so many people support estate tax repeal.estate tax; voter competence; survey research; experimental economics; public policy

Were Bush Tax Cut Supporters “Simply Ignorant?” A Second Look at Conservatives and Liberals in “Homer Gets a Tax Cut”

In a recent edition of Perspectives on Politics, Larry Bartels examines the high levels of support for tax cuts signed into law by President Bush in 2001. In so doing, he characterizes the opinions of “ordinary people” as being based on “simple-minded and sometimes misguided considerations of self interest” and concludes that “the strong plurality support for Bush’s tax cut...is entirely attributable to simple ignorance.” Our analysis of the same data reveals different results. We show that for a large and politically relevant class of respondents – people who describe themselves as “conservative” or “Republican” – increasing information levels increase support for the tax cuts to the extent that they have any affect at all. Indeed, using Bartels’ measure of political information, we show that the Republican respondents rated most informed supported the tax cuts at extraordinarily high levels (over 96%). For these citizens, Bartels’ claim that “better-informed respondents were much more likely to express negative views about the 2001 tax cut” is simply untrue. We then show that Bartels’ results depend on a very strong assumption about how information affects public opinion. He restricts all respondents -- whether liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat – to respond to increasing information levels in identical ways. In other words, he assumes that if more information about the tax cut makes liberals less likely to support it, then conservatives must follow suit. This assumption is very presumptive about the policy and value trade- offs that different people should make. Our analysis, by contrast, allows people of different partisan or ideological identities to react to higher information levels in varying ways. This flexibility has many benefits, one of which is a direct test of Bartels’ restrictive assumption. We demonstrate that the assumption is untrue. Examined several ways, our findings suggest that much of the support for the tax cut was attributable to something other than “simple ignorance.” Bartels’ approach is based on a very strong presumption about how citizens should think and what they should think about. We advocate a different approach, one that takes questions of public policy seriously while respecting ideological and partisan differences in opinion and interest. Indeed, citizens have reasons for the opinions and interests they have. We may or may not agree with them. However, we, as social scientists, can contribute more by offering reliable explanations of these reasons than we can by judging them prematurely. By turning our attention to explaining differences of opinion, we can help to forge a stronger and more credible foundation for progress in meeting critical social needs.public opinion, tax policy, incomplete information, welfare economics

Were Bush Tax Cut Supporters "Simply Ignorant?" A Second Look at Conservatives and Liberals in "Homer Gets a Tax Cut"

In a recent edition of Perspectives on Politics, Larry Bartels examines the high levels of support for tax cuts signed into law by President Bush in 2001. In so doing, he characterizes the opinions of “ordinary people” as lacking “a moral basis” and as being based on “simple-minded and sometimes misguided considerations of self interest.” He concludes that “the strong plurality support for Bush’s tax cut...is entirely attributable to simple ignorance.” Our analysis of the same data reveals different results. We show that for a large and politically relevant class of respondents – people who describe themselves as “conservative” or “Republican” – rising information levels increase support for the tax cuts. Indeed, using Bartels’ measure of political information, we show that the Republican respondents rated “most informed” supported the tax cuts at extraordinarily high levels (over 96%). For these citizens, Bartels’ claim that “better-informed respondents were much more likely to express negative views about the 2001 tax cut” is simply untrue. We then show that Bartels’ results depend on a very strong assumption about how information affects public opinion. He restricts all respondents -- whether liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat – to respond to increasing information levels in identical ways. In other words, he assumes that if more information about the tax cut makes liberals less likely to support it, then conservatives must follow suit. This assumption is very presumptive about the policy trade-offs that different people should make. Our analysis, by contrast, allows people of different partisan or ideological identities to react to higher information levels in varying ways. This flexibility has many benefits, one of which is a direct test of Bartels’ restrictive assumption. We demonstrate that the assumption is untrue. Examined several ways, our findings suggest that much of the support for the tax cut was attributable to something other than “simple ignorance.” Bartels’ approach is based on a very strong presumption about how citizens should think and what they should think about. We advocate a different approach, one that takes questions of public policy seriously while respecting ideological and partisan differences in opinion and interest. Indeed, citizens have reasons for the opinions and interests they have. We may or may not agree with them. However, we, as social scientists, can contribute more by offering reliable explanations of these reasons than we can by judging them prematurely. By turning our attention to explaining differences of opinion, we can help to forge a stronger and more credible foundation for progress in meeting critical social needs.tax cut; President Bush; Republicans; conservatives; information; competence; public policy

The Affect of Temperature on the Fluorescence of Heteromeles arbutifolia (Hollywood) in the Santa Monica Mountains

Presented here is a comparison of the predawn fluorescence of adult Heteromeles arbutifolia growing on the Pepperdine Seaver campus next to the lacrosse field, and adult Heteromeles growing in Tapia canyon. The analysis of the leaf temperature measured by an IR thermometer showed an average of 9.32°C drop when measuring plants in Tapia canyon compared to those growing on the warmer Pepperdine campus. The air temperature measured by the Kestrel and IR thermometer showed Tapia canyon being an average of 7.27°C colder than predawn measurements on Pepperdine campus. Finally, the fluorescence of the plants in both locations was measured using a Pulse-modulated fluorometer, and based on these results it is evident that there is no difference between the fluorescence of Heteromeles arbutifolia grown in a cold climate versus a warm climate

Growth, detection, quantification, and inactivation of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2 is the agent responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to SARS-CoV, which caused the 2003 SARS outbreak. Although numerous reagents were developed to study SARS-CoV infections, few have been applicable to evaluating SARS-CoV-2 infection and immunity. Current limitations in studying SARS-CoV-2 include few validated assays with fully replication-competent wild-type virus. We have developed protocols to propagate, quantify, and work with infectious SARS-CoV-2. Here, we describe: (1) virus stock generation, (2) RT-qPCR quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA; (3) detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigen by flow cytometry, (4) quantification of infectious SARS-CoV-2 by focus-forming and plaque assays; and (5) validated protocols for virus inactivation. Collectively, these methods can be adapted to a variety of experimental designs, which should accelerate our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 biology and the development of effective countermeasures against COVID-19

A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time series possessing all the stylized facts of empirical prices, as well as accelerated speculative bubbles preceding crashes. We use the formula to invert the two years of price history prior to the recent crash on the Nasdaq (april 2000) and prior to the crash in the Hong Kong market associated with the Asian crisis in early 1994. These complex price dynamics are captured using only one exponent controlling the explosion, the variance and mean of the underlying random walk. This offers a new and powerful detection tool of speculative bubbles and herding behavior.Comment: Latex document of 24 pages including 5 eps figure

Public Ignorance and Estate Tax Repeal: The Effect of Partisan Differences and Survey Incentives

We re-examine whether the broad support for repeal of the estate tax is a result of citizen ignorance. We find that increasing information about the estate tax or politics in general has very different effects on Republicans and Democrats. While high and low-information Republicans support estate tax repeal, Democratic support is higher among those who know less. However, most highly-informed people in both parties support repeal. We also show that standard surveys overestimate the extent of misinformation about the estate tax. Therefore, “ignorance” is not a compelling explanation of why so many people support estate tax repeal

Magnesium: Pathophysiological mechanisms and potential therapeutic roles in intracerebral hemorrhage

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remains the second-most common form of stroke with high morbidity and mortality. ICH can be divided into two pathophysiological stages: an acute primary phase, including hematoma volume expansion, and a subacute secondary phase consisting of blood-brain barrier disruption and perihematomal edema expansion. To date, all major trials for ICH have targeted the primary phase with therapies designed to reduce hematoma expansion through blood pressure control, surgical evacuation, and hemostasis. However, none of these trials has resulted in improved clinical outcomes. Magnesium is a ubiquitous element that also plays roles in vasodilation, hemostasis, and blood-brain barrier preservation. Animal models have highlighted potential therapeutic roles for magnesium in neurological diseases specifically targeting these pathophysiological mechanisms. Retrospective studies have also demonstrated inverse associations between admission magnesium levels and hematoma volume, hematoma expansion, and clinical outcome in patients with ICH. These associations, coupled with the multifactorial role of magnesium that targets both primary and secondary phases of ICH, suggest that magnesium may be a viable target of study in future ICH studies

Were Bush Tax Cut Supporters "Simply Ignorant?" A Second Look at Conservatives and Liberals in "Homer Gets a Tax Cut"

In a recent edition of Perspectives on Politics, Larry Bartels examines the high levels of support for tax cuts signed into law by President Bush in 2001. In so doing, he characterizes the opinions of “ordinary people” as lacking “a moral basis” and as being based on “simple-minded and sometimes misguided considerations of self interest.” He concludes that “the strong plurality support for Bush’s tax cut...is entirely attributable to simple ignorance.” Our analysis of the same data reveals different results. We show that for a large and politically relevant class of respondents – people who describe themselves as “conservative” or “Republican” – rising information levels increase support for the tax cuts. Indeed, using Bartels’ measure of political information, we show that the Republican respondents rated “most informed” supported the tax cuts at extraordinarily high levels (over 96%). For these citizens, Bartels’ claim that “better-informed respondents were much more likely to express negative views about the 2001 tax cut” is simply untrue. We then show that Bartels’ results depend on a very strong assumption about how information affects public opinion. He restricts all respondents -- whether liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat – to respond to increasing information levels in identical ways. In other words, he assumes that if more information about the tax cut makes liberals less likely to support it, then conservatives must follow suit. This assumption is very presumptive about the policy trade-offs that different people should make. Our analysis, by contrast, allows people of different partisan or ideological identities to react to higher information levels in varying ways. This flexibility has many benefits, one of which is a direct test of Bartels’ restrictive assumption. We demonstrate that the assumption is untrue. Examined several ways, our findings suggest that much of the support for the tax cut was attributable to something other than “simple ignorance.” Bartels’ approach is based on a very strong presumption about how citizens should think and what they should think about. We advocate a different approach, one that takes questions of public policy seriously while respecting ideological and partisan differences in opinion and interest. Indeed, citizens have reasons for the opinions and interests they have. We may or may not agree with them. However, we, as social scientists, can contribute more by offering reliable explanations of these reasons than we can by judging them prematurely. By turning our attention to explaining differences of opinion, we can help to forge a stronger and more credible foundation for progress in meeting critical social needs

The right ventricular response to lung resection

Objectives: Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer death and in suitable cases the best chance of cure is offered by surgery. Lung resection is associated with significant postoperative cardiorespiratory morbidity, with dyspnea and reduced functional capacity as dominant features. These changes are poorly associated with deterioration in pulmonary function and a potential role of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction has been hypothesized. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging is a reference method for noninvasive assessment of RV function and has not previously been applied to this population. Methods: We used cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging to assess the RV response to lung resection. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging with volume and flow analysis was performed on 27 patients preoperatively, on postoperative day 2 and at 2 months. Left ventricular ejection fraction and RV ejection fraction, the ratio of stroke volume to end systolic volume, pulmonary artery acceleration time, and distensibility of main and branch pulmonary arteries were studied. Results: Mean ± standard deviation RV ejection fraction deteriorated from 50.5% ± 6.9% preoperatively to 45.6% ± 4.5% on postoperative day 2 and remained depressed at 44.9% ± 7.7% by 2 months (P = .003). The ratio of stroke volume to end systolic volume deteriorated from median 1.0 (quartile 1, quartile 3, 0.9, 1.2) preoperatively to median 0.8 (quartile 1, quartile 3, 0.7, 1.0) on postoperative day 2 (P = .011). On postoperative day 2 there was a decrease in pulmonary artery acceleration time and operative pulmonary artery distensibility (P < .030 for both). There were no changes in left ventricular ejection fraction during the study period (P = .621). Conclusions: These findings suggest RV dysfunction occurs following lung resection and persists 2 months after surgery. The deterioration in the ratio of stroke volume to end systolic volume suggests a mismatch between afterload and contractility. There is an increase in indices of pulsatile afterload resulting from the operative pulmonary artery